Football Form Labs EPL Season 2016/17: Week 3

Posted: August 24, 2016

English Premier League Season 2016/17 – Week 3

Tottenham v Liverpool

Saturday August 27, 9:30pm AEST

It took Spurs until the 82nd minute to break down Crystal Palace at White Hart Lane but they were well worth the three points last weekend after they drew their opener at Goodison Park. Liverpool, meanwhile, were brought back down to Earth after their stunning opening day triumph at the Emirates as they slumped  to a 2-0 defeat Turf Moor, despite having 80% possession and 26 shots, to Burnley’s three.

Spurs’ record at White Hart Lane is W11-D6-L3 since the start of last season and when hosting sides between third and eighth under Pochettino they’re W6-D2-L2, with a fairly strong ‘overs’ trend in these games as seven had more than two goals.

It was an all too familiar story for Liverpool at Burnley as they’d followed wins at Stamford Bridge and the Etihad early on in Jurgen Klopp’s career last season with defeats at Newcastle and Watford, as they strive to find the consistency to remain competitive over a whole season. Their overall away record under the German is W8-D2-L7, while they’re W2-D1-L2 at top-six teams in games that have tended to be high-scoring as three saw more than four gaols.

As a result, we’re backing Liverpool’s leaky defence to be exposed again by the likes of Harry Kane, Dele Alli and the impressive Vincent Janssen, but Phillippe Coutinho and Roberto Firmino should also have some joy against a Spurs defence that has only managed nine home clean sheets since the start of last season.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 2.5 goals at 1.86

Chelsea v Burnley

Sunday August 14, 12:00am AEST

Chelsea once again left it late as they found two goals in the final 10 minutes to come from behind and win at Vicarage Road, with Diego Costa netting the winner once again. Meanwhile, Burnley bounced back from an opening day defeat against Swansea to miraculously beat Liverpool 2-0 at Turf Moor, despite having just 20% possession and three shots.

Having won just one of their final 10 home games last term, Conte gave Blues fans something to shout about against the Hammers and with the manner of their victories so far, memories of last season’s horror show are already beginning to fade away. What’s more, Chelsea’s record when hosting bottom-six sides is W13-D3-L2 since 2013/14 as they led at the break in 10 of these games and kept eight clean sheets, while 10 of their wins were by more than one goal.

Burnley’s away record when they were last in the Premier League was W3-D5-L11 as they trailed at the break 13 times, including in five of their six trips to top-six sides where they lost four of six winless games. Chelsea have performed well so far under Conte and they’re unlikely to be as naïve defensively as Liverpool were against the Clarets, and with that in mind this looks a great opportunity for them to put in their first really emphatic performance here.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Chelsea/Chelsea HT/FT at 1.85

Crystal Palace v Bournemouth

Sunday August 28, 12:00am AEST

It’s been a disastrous start to the season, and indeed 2016 as a whole, so far for Crystal Palace as they’ve won only two of their 21 league games and have lost both their matches so far this campaign as they were downed by an 82nd minute Victor Wanyama header at White Hart Lane last weekend. Bournemouth have also lost their opening two and were also undone by a late header, in their case from Michail Antonio in the 85th minute at the London Stadium.

Going back to last season, Palace have now scored just four goals in their last eight games and Allan Pardew will hope that the signing of Christian Benteke will go some way to rectifying that. The Eagles’ record at Selhurst Park is W6-D3-L11 since the start of last season, but seven of those defeats have come in their last 10 matches during which time they’ve managed just seven goals. When hosting bottom-six sides they’re W4-D2-L5 in the last couple of seasons, with just two clean sheets.

Bournemouth were in fact better travellers than they were at home last term as they had a W6-D4-L10 road record, including W3-D1-L1 at fellow bottom-six sides. They’ve arguably been somewhat unfortunate this season as they competed well with United for most of the game and were undone by a late goal at West Ham. As a result, we’re backing Eddie Howe’s men to pick up their first points of the season here.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Bournemouth +0.25 Asian Handicap at 1.91

Everton v Stoke 

Sunday August 28, 12:00am AEST

Though it’s still very early, the signs are promising for Everton under Ronald Koeman as they impressed in a 1-1 draw with Spurs and came from behind to win 2-1 away against a Tony Pulis side, which is no mean feat. Stoke, meanwhile, were well-beaten 4-1 at home to City and though two of the Citizens’ goals came late on, the Potters’ goal came via a somewhat dubious penalty and City were well worth their three points.

Everton’s record at Goodison Park is just W6-D6-L8 since the start of last season as they’ve only managed three clean sheets in that time, but they’re W11-D5-L6 when hosting sides between 7th and 12th since 2012/13 in games that generally been entertaining, with both teams finding the net in 14 of the 22 and 13 seeing more than two goals, while the Toffees led at the break in 12.

Stoke have now won just one of their last nine games going back to last season, while their away record since the start of last campaign is identical to Everton’s  home record: W6-D6-L8. Though Everton finished down in 11th last term, they look set to finish at least between 6th and 10th this time around and Stoke’s record when travelling to these teams is  just W1-D4-L7 since 2013/14 as they conceded 23 goals in these 12 games. As a result we expect Everton to pick up their first home win of the season here and since five of their six home wins since the start of last season were by more than one goal, we’re backing them -1 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Everton -1 Asian Handicap at 2.4

Leicester v Swansea

Sunday August 28, 12:00am AEST

Champions Leicester were shocked in their opener at Hull but picked up a point at the King Power Stadium in a goalless draw with Arsenal, with both sides seemingly content to get themselves off the mark for the season in a fairly cagey affair. Swansea, meanwhile, won 1-0 at Burnley in their opener but slumped to a 2-0 defeat at the KCOM Stadium last weekend.

Leicester have still only lost once at home since the start of last season and their clean sheet against the Gunners was their ninth in their last 12 at home. When hosting sides between 10th and 15th the Foxes are W7-D1-L0 going back to the end of 2014/15 as they led at the break in five of these victories, though managed only three clean sheets.

Swansea’s away record under Guidolin is a mixed W4-D2-L4 and they travelled to three of the top four with the Italian at the helm last term, losing 2-1 at Spurs before managing a smash and grab victory at the Emirates, but suffering a heavy 4-0 defeat at the King Power Stadium towards the end of the campaign. Having sold arguably their best two players from last season in Ayew and Williams and given the Foxes excellent record when hosting similar opposition types, we’re backing the Champions to pick up their first win of the season here.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Leicester to Win at 1.81

Southampton v Watford

Sunday August 14, 12:00am AEST

It’s been a tough start to the season for Saints as they had to come from behind to pick up a point against Watford at home in their opener before they were well beaten at Old Trafford. It’s also been a struggle for David Moyes at Sunderland as he’s suffered a pair of 2-1 defeats at the Etihad and at home to promoted Middlesbrough. The Scotsman will be hoping for a change in fortunes soon after enduring a torrid time in his managerial career since he left Everton.

Southampton have only lost five home of their 20 home games since the start of last season as they’ve scored an average of two goals in these matches, whilst leading at the break 12 times. What’s more, their record when hosting bottom-six teams is W10-D2-L0 in the last couple of seasons while they led at the break in eight of the games and conceded just six goals, with six clean sheets. It’s also worth noting that nine of their 10 wins were by more than goal.

Having lost only one of their final 11 games last term to stay up under Big Sam, The Black Cats look set to have another relegation battle on their hands this season and if their record when travelling to sides between 5th and 10th is anything to go by, they may have to wait a bit longer for their first win of the season: they’re W1-D6-L5 against these teams in the last couple of campaigns, though they did manage to find the net in eight of these games. They trailed at the break in four of their five defeats, including in an 8-0 humiliation at St Mary’s at the start of 2014/15 and while we don’t expect it to be that comfortable for Claude Puel’s men  this time, we’re backing them to win this one well.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Southampton/Southampton HT/FT at 2.64

Watford v Arsenal

Sunday August 28, 2:30am AEST

Though Watford have picked up just a point so far, they led both at St. Mary’s and at home to Chelsea last weekend, before the Blues mounted a late comeback to win 2-1. Arsenal have also picked up just the one point and after their thrilling opener against Liverpool, they were understandably more cautious in a goalless draw at the King Power, with the clean sheet thanks largely to the return of the excellent Laurent Koscielny and with Olivier Giroud and Mesut Ozil also set to come back in to the starting line-up, Arsene Wenger will hope his side can kick-start their season.

The Hornets have a W6-D6-L8 home record since the start of last season and it’s worth noting that they were level at the break in 14 of the matches, only trailing twice. However, if we include Chelsea this season, they’ve lost all six of their home matches against top-five sides, but did manage to score in four of these games and only trailed at the break in one.

The draw at Leicester means that the Gunners have now only won two of their last 10 road games going back to last season, picking up seven draws in this time. When travelling to sides between 10th and 15th, Arsenal are W14-D2-L2 since 2013/14, though they only managed six clean sheets in these 18 games and were level at the break in 10. As a result, we’re backing the Gunners to continue Watford’s poor record when hosting the top-sides here, but it might take them until the second half to break them down.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Draw/Arsenal HT/FT at 5.1

Back on Betfair BACK – Arsenal to Win and Both Teams to Score at 3.6

Hull v Man Utd

Sunday August 14, 2:30am AEST

Both these sides come into this fixture with a 100% record, somewhat surprisingly in Hull’s case given the uncertainty surrounding the managerial position, but nonetheless the Tigers are already being spoken about as this season’s Leicester. Meanwhile, Manchester United have impressed so far under Mourinho, with Zlatan Ibrahimovic starting his Premier League career with a bang by finding the net three times already.

Hull’s record at home back in 2014/15 was W5-D5-L9, though they only trailed at the break in five of these matches and conceded more than twice just four times. However, when hosting top-six sides they’re W3-D2-L8 since 2013/14, though they did manage to find the net in eight of the games, yet six of their eight defeats were by more than one goal.

While United won at Bournemouth, they failed to keep a clean sheet and have now managed to shut their opponents out just three times in their last 14 road games going back to last season. Their record when travelling to bottom-six sides (which is surely where Hull will end up, despite their quick start), is just W5-D6-L2 since the start of last season in games that have tended to be cagey affairs as nine were level at the break, nine had fewer than three goals, while six had fewer than two and three of United’s wins were 1-0’s.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 1.87

Back on Betfair BACK – Half-Time Draw at 2.3

West Bromwich Albion v Middlesbrough

Sunday August 28, 10:30pm AEST

After winning their opener at Crystal Palace, West Brom let a 1-0 lead slip at home to Everton last weekend as they lost 2-1, the same scoreline by which Middlesbrough won at the Stadium of Light as they made it four points from their first two games.

The defeat against the Toffees means that West Brom have now lost four of five winless home games going back to the end of last season, having only lost five of 15 prior to that. When hosting bottom-six sides, they’re W4-D1-L3 under Tony Pulis and it’s worth noting they were level at the break in six of these games and three of their four wins were 1-0’s.

Boro have started this season strongly but a trip to a Tony Pulis led side will always be a good litmus test. However, the Baggies are in poor form at home and have now lost their last five home games against promoted teams. As a result, we’re siding with Karanka’s men to continue their excellent start to the season here.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Middlesbrough 0 Asian Handicap at 2.2

Manchester City v West Ham

Monday August 29, 1:00am AEST

The Pep Guardiola era has started in good fashion for Manchester City as they’ve won their opening two league games, including a 4-1 victory at the Britannia last weekend, whilst also comfortably securing their participation in the Champions League group stages. West Ham, meanwhile, left it late to find a winner in their opening game at the London Stadium against Bournemouth and have looked somewhat lacklustre in their first couple of games, without star man Payet starting.

City also left it late to get past Sunderland in their opener at the Etihad, but their record when hosting sides between 6th and 10th is an impressive W12-D0-L3 since 2013/14 as they led at the break in nine of these games, netting 41 goals (2.7 gpg), with 10 of their 12 wins by more than one goal.

The Hammers managed some excellent results last term on the road under Slaven Billic as they won at Arsenal, Liverpool and City in their opening three away games, as well as drawing at United and Leicester, with Spurs the only top-five side to beat them. However, with Lanzini, Feghouli, Sakho, Ayew and Carroll all out and Payet a doubtful starter, West Ham look very short of attacking options and as a result we expect City to pick up their first clean sheet of the season in this one and win well.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Man City to Win to Nil at 2.38

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