Football Form Labs EPL Season 2016/17: Week 12

Posted: November 17, 2016

English Premier League Season 2016/17 – Week 12

Manchester United v Arsenal

Saturday November 19, 11:30pm AEDT

The Premier League returns with a bang after the international break as old foes Jose Mourinho and Arsene Wenger face off for the 14th competitive game, with the ‘Special One’ yet to taste defeat against the Frenchman. However, the Gunners are certainly the more in-form of the two at the moment having won seven of nine unbeaten games, while Utd have won just two of their last eight.

Mourinho’s Chelsea sides have conceded just one goal in six home games against Arsenal in games that have tended to be tight as five saw fewer than three goals. Indeed, Jose won 12 of 16 unbeaten home games against top-four opposition with Chelsea whilst conceding just four goals and though he’s already lost against City with Utd, the Red Devils were unbeaten when hosting top-four opponents under Louis van Gaal.

As well as his poor record against Mourinho, Wenger has lost six of seven winless trips to Old Trafford in the Premier League since 2009/10 and last won there back in 2006. While Arsenal have won four of five unbeaten road games this term, they’re yet to travel to anyone above Watford in eighth, though they have improved when travelling to top-six sides in recent years as they’re W2-D4-L4 since 2014/15.

However, they lost against a weakened United side last term to blow their chance of the title, and that poor record at Old Trafford together with Mourinho’s record against Wenger and when hosting top teams generally means that we’re siding with Utd.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Man Utd 0 Asian Handicap at 1.92

Crystal Palace v Manchester City

Sunday November 20, 2:00am AEDT

Crystal Palace’s defeat at Burnley was their fourth on the bounce and as a result they drop down to 16th. Manchester City are not in the best form themselves as they’ve managed just one win in their last five. That was after they won their first six and they now trail Liverpool by two points, while Chelsea have also pushed ahead of them.

Palace won three on the bounce earlier on in the season but those came against Middlesbrough, Sunderland and Stoke, who were struggling at the time. They’ve lost nine of their last 15 at Selhurst Park and were beaten in four of their five home games against last season’s top-five as they managed just two goals against these teams.

City have won four of their five road games this term and they won six of 10 unbeaten trips to bottom-half sides last term whilst conceding just three goals. With that in mind, City look a touch big at 1.57 and so we’re backing them -1 on the Asian Handicap since five of their last six away wins were by more than one goal.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Man City -1 Asian Handicap at 1.9

Everton v Swansea

Sunday November 20, 2:00am AEDT

Everton took advantage of a lenient fixture list to start the season as they won four of their first five, but since then they’ve managed just one win in their last six and were thumped 5-0 at Stamford Bridge prior to the international break to drop down to seventh. Swansea, meanwhile, are still searching for their first win since the opening day of the season and have slipped down to 19th with just two points from their last 10 games.

Everton remain unbeaten at Goodison Park where they’ve won three of their five games and though they generally struggled last term, they proved adept at beating the lesser teams at home. They won all five of their games against bottom-five opposition, with four of these victories by more than two goals, to go with comfy home wins over West Ham and Boro this term.

Swansea have lost their last four on the road and have lost 14 of their last 22 away going back to last season. They’ve lost 11 of their last 16 trips to teams between 6th and 10th but they did manage to score in eight of the last 10 of these, and they’ve managed to score in five of their last six this season but nonetheless went on to lose each of these, we’re backing Everton to Win and Both Teams to Score.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Everton to Win and Both Teams to Score at 3.2

Southampton v Liverpool 

Sunday November 20, 2:00am AEST

Saints suffered a shock defeat at Hull prior to the international break despite having 66% of possession and 19 shots and that, together with their defeat against Chelsea means they’re down to 10th. Liverpool, meanwhile, continue to impress as they beat Watford 6-1 last time out, their seventh victory in eight unbeaten games but they continue to be vulnerable defensively as they’ve managed just one clean sheet so far.

The defeat against Chelsea was just the Saints’ second in their last 15 at home and in fact the Blues were responsible for both those losses. Saints are W3-D3-L5 when hosting top-five teams since 2014/15 in games that have tended to produce goals as six of the last eight saw more than three strikes.

Liverpool have won their last three on the road but the last two have been against struggling Palace and Swansea. Whilst wins at Stamford Bridge and the Emirates look impressive on paper, the Gunners were caught cold on the opening day of the season when they hadn’t done most of their transfer business, while Chelsea hadn’t yet switched to the 3-5-2 formation that they’ve since thrived under. With that in mind, we’re taking Liverpool on at a ground that’s been a tough place to go in recent times.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY – Liverpool at 2.12

Stoke v Bournemouth

Sunday November 20, 2:00am AEDT

Stoke have recovered from their disastrous start by going unbeaten in six, winning three of their last four to climb up to 12th. Indeed, they’ve moved above Bournemouth who’ve had a couple of disappointing results in their last two as they’ve lost at Boro and at home to Sunderland last time out, despite the Black Cats having Steven Pienaar sent off in the 59th minute.

While Stoke’s results have improved in recent weeks, their last four games have been against the current bottom-four and as a result question marks still remain over them. They shipped eight goals in their opening two home games against Spurs and City and their record when hosting teams between 11th and 15th is just W0-D2-L4 since the start of last season as they failed to score in half these games.

Bournemouth have picked up just two points on the road so far but their record when travelling to teams between 10th and 15th was W3-D2-L0 last term and so we’re going to back the Cherries to pick up at least a point here against a Stoke side that are once again likely to be without key man Shaqiri.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY – Stoke at 2.3

Sunderland v Hull

Sunday November 20, 2:00am AEDT

Both these sides managed surprise wins prior to the international break as Sunderland picked up their first victory of the season at Bournemouth whilst Hull ended a run of six straight defeats with a 2-1 win at home to Southampton.

Sunderland have picked up just one point at home so far and they’ve already lost against bottom-six sides Palace and Boro. As a result, they’ve now lost half of their 12 home games against such opposition since 2014/15, managing just three clean sheets but also failing to score only twice themselves. As a result, eight had more than three goals while six saw more than four.

Hull won at Swansea and drew at Burnley in their opening two road games and were unfortunate to lose at Watford in their last away match after a late own goal from Michael Dawson. With that in mind, Sunderland look too short at 2.24 for a side that has won just once this season and picked up just one point at home, so we’re taking them on at that price.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY – Sunderland at 2.24

Watford v Leicester

Sunday November 20, 2:00am AEST

Watford had kept three clean sheets ahead of their trip to Anfield but they were thumped 6-1 by Klopp’s men and as a result drop down to eighth, which nonetheless represents an impressive start for Walter Mazzarri. The same can’t be said for Leicester in their title defence as they’ve won just three times and were beaten at home by West Brom last time out.

After defeats in their opening two home games against Arsenal and Chelsea, Watford have won two of three unbeaten matches at Vicarage Road, including against Man Utd. Six of their nine home defeats since the start of last season have come against top-five sides but they’re an impressive W7-D6-L2 against the rest of the division.

Leicester have picked up just one point on the road so far and though they’ve already gone to Spurs, Chelsea, Man Utd and Liverpool, a 2-1 home defeat against West Brom suggests all is not well with the Foxes. As a result we’re siding with Watford here to continue their excellent start to the season and extend their unbeaten run at home.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Watford 0 Asian Handicap at 2.1

Tottenham v West Ham

Sunday November 20, 4:30am AEDT

Spurs remain the only unbeaten side in the division but their 1-1 draw at the Emirates was their fourth on the bounce and as a result they trail Liverpool by five points ahead of this round of fixtures. West Ham, meanwhile, are down in 17th but have lost just one of their last five to recover somewhat from their disastrous start.

Spurs have lacked goals in Harry Kane’s absence but he netted from the penalty spot on his return to the side against Arsenal and after being rested by England, he should be closer to full fitness now. Spurs have already beaten Man City at White Hart Lane this term and have lost just three times in front of their own fans since the start of last season. They’ve won nine of their 13 home games against bottom-half sides since the start of last season whilst losing just once and keeping seven clean sheets.

Though the Hammers have improved in recent weeks, the only top-half side they’ve played in their last five was Everton where they were beaten 2-0 at Goodison Park. Indeed, they’ve now lost five of their last six on the road and look some way off the team that managed impressive wins at Arsenal, Liverpool and City at the start of last season. Since Spurs have conceded just twice at home so far and should welcome back Alderweireld for this one, we’re backing them to end their sequence of draws and win without conceding.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Spurs Win to Nil at 2.65

Middlesbrough v Chelsea

Monday November 21, 3:00am AEST

Middlesbrough managed some impressive results prior to the international break as they picked up a point at both the Emirates and Etihad, with a home win over Bournemouth sandwiched in between. As a result, they’re up to 15th while Chelsea are also a side on the up since Conte adopted the 3-4-3 system. The Blues have won their last five without conceding, including a 5-0 hammering of Everton last time out and they’re now right back in the title race.

Boro have lost at home to Watford, Spurs and Palace so far as they’ve in fact picked up more points on the road, but they’ve generally proved tough to break down this term as Everton are the only side to beat them by more than one goal. They have however struggled to find the net with regularity as they’ve scored just 10 goals in their 11 games so far and as a result this looks an excellent opportunity for the Blues to continue their run of clean sheets.

Conte’s men have restricted Everton and Southampton to just two shots on target between them in their last two games and we can’t see this Boro side causing Courtois too many problems either. The Chelsea clean sheet looks a good bet at odds-against but we’re going to back the Blues to win 1-0 or 2-0 against a Boro team that should once again be well-organised and difficult to break down.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Chelsea to Win and Under 2.5 Goals at 3.6

West Brom v Burnley

Tuesday November 22, 7:00am AEDT

West Brom picked up their first win in six prior to the international break as they won 2-1 at the home of the champions to move up to 11th. Burnley also won last time out as they beat Palace 3-2 at home to climb into the top half, which represents an excellent start to the season for Sean Dyche’s men.

West Brom have managed just one home win so far and have won only seven of their 24 home matches since the start of last season. What’s more, the goalless draw against Middlesbrough ended a run of five straight defeats when hosting promoted teams since Tony Pulis took over as they’ve managed just four goals in these six games.

Burnley have picked up only one point from their four road games so far but they’ve had some tough fixtures as they’ve already gone to Chelsea, Leicester, Southampton and Man Utd, against whom they managed a goalless draw. This will be their easiest away test so far and given West Brom’s home record in general and particularly against promoted teams, we couldn’t touch them at 1.94 and are certainly taking them on at that price.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY – West Brom at 1.96

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