Football Form Labs EPL Season 2016/17: Week 11

Posted: November 4, 2016 at 10:31 am

English Premier League Season 2016/17 – Week 11

Bournemouth v Sunderland

Sunday November 6, 2:00am AEDT

After thumping Hull 6-1 and holding Spurs to a goalless draw, Bournemouth were beaten 2-0 at Middlesbrough, though Eddie Howe’s men remain in 10th. Sunderland, meanwhile, slumped to their eighth defeat of the season as they were beaten 4-1 by Arsenal as it’s now surely a matter of time before David Moyes faces the sack yet again.

After defeat against Man Utd on the opening day of the season, Bournemouth have since won three of four unbeaten games at the Vitality Stadium whilst conceding just one goal. When hosting bottom-six sides they’re W4-D2-L2 since the start of last season in games that have generally been low-scoring as six saw fewer than three goals while half had fewer than two. Both fixtures between the Cherries and the Black Cats last season featured exactly two goals.

Sunderland have picked up just one point on the road so far whilst scoring just two goals, though they’re yet to conceded more than twice, despite the fact they’ve already gone to the Etihad and White Hart Lane. Given Bournemouth’s ‘unders’ trend in relevant fixtures and since three of the Cherries’ last four at home have seen fewer than two goals, Under 2.5 Goals looks a big price at 2.1.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 2.1

Burnley v Crystal Palace

Sunday November 6, 2:00am AEDT

Burnley somehow managed to pick up a point at Old Trafford, despite having just 28% of possession and allowing 38 shots at their goal. Nonetheless, they remain in 14th and that represents a solid start to the season for Sean Dyche’s side. Palace, meanwhile, suffered their third defeat on the bounce as they were beaten 4-2 by a rampant Liverpool side and as a result drop down to 13th.

After an opening day defeat at Swansea, Burnley are now W3-D1-L1 at Turf Moor, with Arsenal the only side to beat them in that time as they’ve managed wins over Liverpool and Everton. Their defence has been key to their success in front of their own fans as they’ve conceded just four goals at home so far, and never more than once in the same game.

Palace, on the other hand, are still searching for their first clean sheet of the season and have now conceded seven in their last two. They’re W2-D1-L2 on the road so far but their wins have come at strugglers Sunderland and Middlesbrough and they failed to win any of their final 11 road games last term. With that in mind, Palace look too short at 2.48 and so we’re backing Burnley +0.25 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Burnley +0.25 Asian Handicap at 1.88

Manchester City v Middlesbrough

Sunday November 6, 2:00am AEST

Man City’s win over West Brom ended a run of six winless games in all competitions and after their victory over Barcelona, Pep’s men look to be back on track. Middlesbrough have also improved in recent weeks as they managed a draw at the Emirates and beat Bournemouth 2-0 at home to climb up to 14th.

City have been held to 1-1 draws in their last two home games against Everton and Southampton, paying the price for their defensive vulnerabilities and being undone by some excellent goalkeeping performances from Stekelenburg and Forster. However, against a Boro side that are the fourth lowest scorers in the division, Guardiola will hope his side can keep their third clean sheet of the season.

Boro have failed to score in two of their last four on the road but they proved at the Emirates that they can be well-organised and tough to break down. After their Champions League exertions in midweek we wouldn’t be surprised if City had to work hard for their three points and wouldn’t put anyone off Draw/City HT/FT or the City Win and Under 2.5 Goals, but we’re going to stick with the win to nil just in case the Citizens score at least three for the fifth time this season.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Man City Win to Nil at 2.0

West Ham v Stoke 

Sunday November 6, 2:00am AEDT

Both these sides got off to slow starts but have recovered in recent weeks as West Ham have won two of their last three, though were beaten at Everton last time out, while Stoke’s victory against Swansea was their third on the bounce and as a result they’re up to 12th, with the Hammers down in 17th.

The Hammers’ move to the London Stadium hasn’t been a smooth one as they’ve suffered heavy defeats against Watford and Southampton, though they did edge past Bournemouth and Sunderland 1-0.  That’s in stark contrast to last season where they lost just three times at Upton Park all campaign.

Whilst Stoke have won their last three, all those victories have come against teams currently in the bottom-three and their away record is just W7-D7-L10 since the start of last season. What’s more, Shaqiri was forced off in the first half against Swansea and with Arnautovic suspended, the Potters look short of creativity. That, together with the fact that the Hammers have managed just five goals in their five home games so far means that we’re backing Under 2.5 Goals at 2.1.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 2.1

Chelsea v Everton

Sunday November 6, 4:30am AEDT

Chelsea continue to flourish since Antonio Conte introduced the 3-5-2 system as their 2-0 win at Southampton means they’ve won their last four without conceding and have climbed up to fourth. Everton, meanwhile, picked up their first win in five as they beat West Ham 2-0 at home to remain in sixth.

With Diego Costa in fine form and Eden Hazard back to his best, this Chelsea side now looks like the one that won the title in 2014/15 and they’re 1.59 to make it five home wins out of six here. Since they were played off the pitch by Liverpool, Chelsea have beaten Leicester 3-0 and thumped Man Utd 4-0 at Stamford Bridge, starting quickly as they were 3-0 up in both games.

After wins at strugglers West Brom and Sunderland, Everton have picked up just one point from their last three road games, losing at Bournemouth and Burnley. The Toffees are W0-D3-L6 when travelling to top-four teams since 2014/15 as they failed to score in five of these games and trailed at the break in five. However, with Romelu Lukaku in excellent form we’re a little wary of backing the Chelsea win to nil and instead we’re backing the Blues to be ahead at half-time and full-time, as they have been in their last three games.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Chelsea/Chelsea HT/FT at 2.38

Arsenal v Tottenham

Sunday November 6, 11:30pm AEDT

Whilst previous North London derbies have largely had just bragging rights at stake, these days the meeting of Arsenal and Spurs has genuine ramifications in the title race, with the Gunners currently level on points with Man City heading into this round of fixtures, whilst Spurs remain unbeaten and are currently just three points off the pace, though they suffered defeat at Wembley once again in midweek.

After just one point from their first two, the Gunners have since won seven of eight unbeaten games to surge up the table. Their record at the Emirates is W15-D5-L4 since the start of last season and when hosting top-five sides they’re W5-D5-L2 since 2014/15, with both teams scoring in eight of these.

Indeed, both teams have scored in all four meetings between these two since Pochettino took over, with each of those finishing as draws. Spurs haven’t won at the Emirates since November 2010, but have lost just three of their 24 road games since the start of last season. That, together with Arsenal’s record when hosting the top sides suggests the draw is an excellent option here at 3.65, with the Gunners a little on the short side at 1.99. Indeed, Spurs were unbeaten in their three trips to fellow top-four sides last term and we fancy them to extend that record here.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Draw at 3.65

Liverpool v Watford

Monday November 7, 1:15am AEDT

Liverpool continue to impress going forward under Jurgen Klopp as they won 4-2 at Palace last time out, though they do remain vulnerable defensively as their only clean sheet came in the non-event that was their home game against Utd. Watford had similar issues at the back as they were without a clean sheet in their first seven, but have shut out their opponents in their last three, including in their 1-0 win against Hull that saw them move up to 7th.

Liverpool have scored 11 goals in their four home games so far and seven of those have come in the first half as they’ve tended to blow their opposition away with breath-taking starts. When hosting sides between 7th and 13th, they’re W5-D1-L0 under Klopp, scoring 16 goals in these games and conceding just three, whilst they led at the break in four of the last five.

Watford have lost just once on the road so far, but they’re yet to travel to a side currently in the top eight and though they have managed those clean sheets in their last three games, they’ve been against teams in the bottom-seven. The Hornets lost each of their trips to the top eight last term, failing to score in six of these games and with five of their defeats by more than a single goal. With Liverpool continuing to look shaky at the back, we’re opting for them -1.5 on the Asian Handicap rather than to win to nil.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Liverpool -1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.85

Hull v Southampton

Monday November 7, 1:15am AEDT

After wins in their opening two games, Hull have since lost seven of eight winless matches, netting just once in their last four. As a result, they’re down to 18th and are as short as 1.42 to go back down to the Championship. Southampton suffered their first defeat in six games against Chelsea and they’ve dropped down to ninth, though they did manage a home win over managerless Inter in the Europa League.

Hull have lost their last four at home whilst scoring just one goal, though Arsenal are the only side to have scored more than twice against them at the KCOM Stadium and they’ve only trailed at the break in two of their five games there so far.

Saints have won just once on the road this term and their record when travelling to bottom-six teams last season was just W2-D1-L3 as they failed to score in each of these defeats. While Hull have lost their last four at home, three of those were against Chelsea, Arsenal and Utd and they managed to beat Leicester at home on the opening day. With that in mind, Saints look a touch short at 1.7 and so we’re backing Hull on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Hull +0.75 Asian Handicap at 2.04

Swansea v Mancehster United

Monday November 7, 2:00am AEDT

Swansea’s defeat at Stoke was their seventh in their last nine games as they’re yet to win since beating Burnley on the opening day of the season. Man Utd, meanwhile, couldn’t break the deadlock against Burnley despite having 38 shots, meaning they managed just one Premier League goal in October as they dropped down to eighth, while they once again came unstuck on the road in Europe as they lost at Fenerbahce.

Swansea have had a tough run of fixtures at home as prior to the draw with Watford they’d hosted Liverpool and Man City, both of whom they scored against in defeat, whilst they managed a draw against Chelsea before that. Indeed, Swansea’s record when hosting sides between 4th and 8th is W2-D4-L1 since the start of last season as Chelsea were the only side to score more than once against them. As a result four of these had fewer than three goals, while four were also goalless at the break.

Since Utd have won just one of their last seven, we’re certainly not keen to back them at 1.73, particularly since the goals have dried up for Ibra and co.. There have certainly been signs of improvement for Swansea in recent weeks under Bob Bradley as they managed a goalless draw against Watford and were competitive in a 3-2 defeat at the Emirates. Utd have led at the break in just two of their last 13 road games while Swansea have trailed at the break in just one of their last 16 at home, we’re going to back the half-time draw and also side with the Swans on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – HT Draw

Leicester v WestBrom

Monday November 7, 3:30am AEDT

Leicester continue to impress in the Champions League as their draw at Copenhagen means they need just one more point to reach the knockout stages and their league form has also improved in recent weeks as they beat Palace 3-1 at home and managed a 1-1 draw at White Hart Lane. West Brom, conversely, are without a win in five, though they’ve had a tough run of fixtures as they’ve played Spurs, Liverpool and City in their last three.

Whilst the Foxes have picked up just point on the road, they’ve won three of five home games, drawing two, and last tasted defeat at the King Power back in September of last year. When hosting sides between 11th and 16th they’re W6-D2-L0 since the start of last season as they scored at least three times in the last four of these games and led at the break in the last five.

However, since West Brom have lost just one of their last 13 road games by more than one goal, we don’t expect this to be a comfortable victory for the champions and rather than siding with them on the handicap or to be ahead at the break, we’re happy enough to simply back them to win at 1.83, which looks a big price against a West Brom side that has four of their last six trips to top-half sides (where we expect the Foxes to finish).

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Leicester at 1.83

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