Football Form Labs EPL Season 2016/17: Week 10

Posted: October 27, 2016

English Premier League Season 2016/17 – Week 10

Sunderland v Arsenal

Saturday October 29, 10:30pm AEST

Sunderland were undone by a 94th minute Winston Reid winner at the London Stadium to leave them with just two points from their nine games so far and rooted firmly to the foot of the table. Arsenal, meanwhile, had to settle for a goalless draw at home to Middlesbrough which ended a run of six straight wins and means they’re part of a three-way tie at the top.

Though Sunderland have of course struggled, they’ve only twice lost by more than one goal as they proved competitive against both Spurs and City on the opening day of the season. Indeed, Sunderland are W1-D4-L7 when hosting top-six teams since the start of 2014/15, but they conceded more than twice in just one of these games as nine saw fewer than three goals, half had fewer than two and eight were level at the break.

Arsenal have now kept clean sheets in three of their last four and since Sunderland failed to score in eight of those 12 home games against top-six sides, we’re backing Arsenal to Win and Under 2.5 Goals. Wenger’s men failed to score more than twice in any of their trips to bottom-seven teams last term, with their three wins against the bottom-five all 1-0 or 2-0’s.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Arsenal to Win and Under 2.5 Goals at 4.35

Manchester United v Burnley

Sunday October 30, 1:00am AEDT

Jose Mourinho’s return to the Bridge was not a happy one as his Manchester United side were thumped 4-0, meaning they’ve won just one of their last six and consequently have dropped down to seventh. Burnley, on the other hand, beat Everton 2-1 at Turf Moor thanks to a 90th minute Scott Arfield winner to remain in 14th.

Despite their poor start to the season, City are the only side to beat Utd at Old Trafford and the Red Devils are W14-D6-L3 at home since the start of last term. When hosting bottom-half sides they’re W9-D2-L1 in that period as they kept seven clean sheets, though scored more than twice on only three occasions.

Whilst Burnley have won half of their six home games, they’ve lost all three of their road matches, conceding nine goals and scoring just one, and last week’s win was totally against the run of play. Indeed, only Sunderland and Boro have scored fewer goals than Burnley so far this season and with that in mind we’re backing Utd to win without conceding, as they have done in five of their last seven home wins.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Man Utd to Win to Nil at 1.75

Middlesbrough v Bournemouth

Sunday October 30, 1:00am AEST

Middlesbrough have won just once so far this season but fought hard for a goalless draw at the Emirates to remain out of the relegation zone in 17th. Bournemouth also managed to hold Spurs to a scoreless draw at the Vitality Stadium meaning they’ve lost just one of their last seven, and that was against City.

Goals have been the problem for Boro so far as they’ve managed just seven, but they’ve been pretty solid defensively, in keeping with their record during last season’s promotion campaign, as Everton are the only side to have beaten them by more than one goal. They’ve picked up just one point from their four games at the Riverside Stadium, though they did manage to score in three of these.

All three of Bournemouth’s victories this term have come at home as they’re W0-D2-L2 on the road. However, last term they were W4-D1-L1 when travelling to bottom-seven sides and with that in mind the Cherries look a big price at 3.25 to pick up the three points, though we’ll take some cover on the draw given Boro’s solid defence.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Bournemouth 0 Asian Handicap at 2.2

Tottenham v Leicester 

Sunday October 30, 1:00am AEST

Spurs remain the only unbeaten side in the league, but they’ve been held to draws in their last two at West Brom and Bournemouth and as a result they’ve dropped down to fifth. Leicester have already lost four times and all of those defeats have come on the road where they’re yet to pick up a point.

Spurs have won three of their four home games, the most impressive of those victories in their last game at White Hart Lane against City. Indeed, they’re W13-D7-L3 at home since the start of last season and when hosting sides between 7th and 13th they’re W4-D4-L0 in games that have tended to be tight as five had fewer than two goals, while five were also goalless at the break.

The Foxes have trailed at the break in all four of their away games and shipped 13 goals, which is of course in stark contrast to last term when they conceded just 18 away goals all season. However, Spurs haven’t been in the best of scoring form in Harry Kane’s absence as they’ve only scored more than once, against Stoke, so far this term and as a result we’re backing Spurs to win 1-0 or 2-0, as has been the case in each of their three home victories so far.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Spurs to Win and Under 2.5 Goals at 4.0

Watford v Hull

Sunday October 30, 1:00am AEST

Watford played out a goalless draw at Swansea to remain in the top half, having lost just one of their last six games. Hull, conversely, suffered their fifth defeat on the bounce as they were beaten 2-0 at home to Stoke to drop down to 18th.

Watford failed to keep a clean sheet in their first seven but have shut out their opponents in their last two, though both of those were on the road. After defeats against Chelsea and Arsenal in their opening two at Vicarage Road, the Hornets have since beaten Utd impressively and drawn against Bournemouth. When hosting bottom-five sides they were W3-D2-L0 last term, with each of those victories against the relegated teams.

Hull have shipped 11 goals in their last two away games against Liverpool and Bournemouth, though they have managed to find the net in all four of their road matches. Indeed, since Watford are without a clean sheet in eight at home, we’re backing both teams to score at 1.94 and are also going to back Watford to Win and Both Teams to Score at 3.95.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Both Teams to Score at 1.94

West Brom v Manchester City

Sunday October 30, 1:00am AEST

West Brom suffered their first defeat in five as they were beaten 2-1 at Anfield to drop down to 13th, one place higher than they managed last term. Manchester City, meanwhile, are winless in three after they could only draw at home against Southampton and as a result the title race once again looks very open after Pep’s men appeared to be running away with it a few weeks ago.

Unusually for a Tony Pulis side, West Brom are without a clean sheet in six but they’re unbeaten in their last three at home, including a 1-1 draw with Spurs. When hosting top-four sides they’re W2-D2-L2 under the Welshman as they managed to score in five of these games, though the exception was in a 0-3 defeat against City last term.

However, since City have kept just one clean sheet so far this term, we’re backing both teams to score. Given the Baggies’ decent record when hosting the top sides and City’s dip in form, Guardiola’s men look a little on the short side at 1.47 and we’re also taking the Baggies +1.25 on the Asian Handicap, particularly since they’ve lost just one of their last 22 at home by more than one goal.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Both Teams to Score at 2.04

Back on Betfair BACK – West Brom +1.25 Asian Handicap at 1.87

Crystal Palace v Liverpool

Sunday October 30, 3:30am AEST

After three straight wins, Crystal Palace have since picked up just one point from their last three and are still searching for their first clean sheet of the season. It’s unlikely to come against a Liverpool side that are the division’s top scorers along with Man City and have now won five of six unbeaten games.

Palace have already lost at home to West Brom and West Ham while their record when hosting top-four teams is just W1-D0-L7 since the start of 2014/15, though they did manage to score in six of these games and only one of their defeats was by more than one goal.

Since Liverpool are without a clean sheet on the road and have managed just one all season, we expect both teams to score in a game that could see plenty of goals. Indeed, Liverpool  have a W2-D1-L2 record when travelling to sides between 11th and 16th under Klopp, with both teams scoring in four of these games and four also seeing more than two goals.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.81

Everton v West Ham

Monday October 31, 12:30am AEST

Having won four of five unbeaten games to start the season, Everton have since managed just two points from their last four to drop down to sixth. West Ham, on the other hand, have won their last two after a slow start to the campaign that saw them lose five of their first six.

Though Everton have struggled in recent weeks, three of their last four have been on the road and they remain unbeaten at Goodison Park having beaten Stoke and Boro. However, both of those sides currently sit in the bottom five and five of Everton’s six home wins last term also came against bottom-five sides.

West Ham are of course currently only 15th, but they’ve improved in recent weeks and we expect them to move towards the top half, with players now starting to return from injury. The Hammers lost just five times on the road last term and so we’re backing them to continue improving and pick up at least a point.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY – Everton at 1.84

Southampton v Chelsea

Monday October 31, 3:00am AEST

Southampton managed a point at the Etihad to stretch their unbeaten run to five games, during which time they’ve conceded just two goals. Chelsea have also managed clean sheets in their last three and won each of these games, including a 4-0 hammering of Man Utd at the Bridge last time out as they’ve taken immediately to Conte’s 3-4-3 after disappointing defeats against Liverpool and Arsenal.

Southampton are unbeaten in nine at St Mary’s and have lost only five times at home since the start of last season. When hosting top-six sides they’re W3-D3-L5 since the start of 2014/15 in games that have tended to produce goals, due largely to the fact that Saints kept just two clean sheets. As a result, seven had more than two strikes while five had more than three.

Since Chelsea’s only clean sheets in their last 11 on the road came against Hull and Villa, we think there could be goals in this one as well. Both teams have netted in seven of the eight meetings between these two since Southampton returned to the Premier League in 2012/13 and we’re backing it to be eight out of nine.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Both Teams to Score at 1.78

Stoke v Swansea

Tuesday November 1, 7:00am AEDT

Having failed to win any of their first seven, Stoke have won their last two, though they have been against fellow strugglers Sunderland and Hull. Swansea are winless since their opening game of the season but they’ve had a tough run of fixtures as their last six have all been against teams currently in the top half.

Stoke’s win over Sunderland was only their second in their last nine at home but their record when hosting bottom-half sides is W5-D3-L4 since the start of last season. They managed just two clean sheets in these game as both teams scored in seven.

Swansea have managed to score in three of their four road matches so far but they’ve now conceded at least twice in six of their last nine on the road, with nine of their last 11 away seeing more than two goals and five with more than three. With that in mind, we’re backing Over 2.5 Goals at 1.92 in what should be a more entertaining encounter than the last Monday Night Football.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.92

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