Flemington, Saturday 30 January 2016: The Betfair Insider Trial Analysis

Posted: January 29, 2016

Betfair Insider

Trial Analysis

Flemington, Saturday 30 January 2016

 

Track

Current Track Rating: Good 4

Rail: +9m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 29th – Max 18°C. Mostly cloudy, 90% chance of rain, 6-20mm.

Saturday 30th – Max 24°C. Partly cloudy, 60% chance of showers, 0-3mm.

 

Race 5 Andrew Guy Handicap 3YO Fillies SWP 1100m

 

Periods of rain on Friday and Saturday won’t have much impact on Flemington. The +9m rail will prove advantageous for those who can find it during the day.

Speed Map

Flemington 3001

Major Players

  1. HeatherlyShe’s a quirky filly that has always had a wrap on her. Last start she was able to punch through and hold the rail when Dylan Dunn on Petites Reward looked to generously give it up. She’s a keen going filly and I have a theory that these types of horses are better suited to straight racing. It’s D-Day for her and she’s well found in the market at $5.
  1. Magna RossaShe controlled a 1200m race against the 3YO fillies a month ago and then was trapped wide and actually stuck on really well against Golden Spin last start. She drops back to the 1100m this time and will run an honest race.
  1. Alaskan RoseThis talented filly resumes from a 112 day spell. She won her first two starts progressing from a Wednesday win at Sandown to a Saturday win against her own age and sex at Caulfield. She went on to contest a Group 2 and a Group 1 race where she had little luck in either and had probably come to the end of her preparation. The 1100m on Saturday appears short of her best distance on paper but she is really progressive and will be powering home late.
  1. AlucinariThe well-travelled Godolphin filly returns to Victoria where she has had 3 of her 9 career starts. She’s getting better with each start with her latest efforts against the older mares in Sydney give her a great platform into this albeit 5th up over 1100m. She will sit back with cover and fly late aided by the solid tempo set by Heatherly.
  1. Love DaysShe went around an even money favourite last time when trapped 3 wide on speed in what was a much maligned ride. She heads up the straight here and I believe, like Heatherly this will suit her running style more than ‘corner’ racing. Looms as D-Day for her and provided she can settle she’s a chance.
  1. Almighty GirlShe was a star at the jump outs and brought that to race day on debut! She sat 4 and 5 wide at Mornington before putting a hole in them late! She hit the line with her ears pricked and that says to me she can go right through her grades. Her final splits were terrific last 600 33.08, 400 22.26 & 200 11.16. She’s not from a ‘popular’ stable and has been priced incorrectly in the market.
  1. Sky DazzleWon her debut in a 2YO filly’s race at Sale and returns here off a 230 day break. She beat the likes of Magna Rossa (she meets her today) and Rillito who won two races since! Big watch on how she parades and any positive market push.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – ALMIGHTY GIRL – Take anything $10 + for 3 units

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – ALUCINARI – $7+ for 0.5 unit

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider