Flemington, Saturday 20th February 2016: The Betfair Insider

Posted: February 18, 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 3

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 19th – Max 22°C. Shower of two developing.

Saturday 20th – Max 22°C. Partly cloudy.

 

R6 CS Hayes Stakes 3YO Colts & Geldings SWP 1400m G3

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners have been second up
  • 3 of past 5 winners have come via the Manfred Stakes
  • 1 of past 5 winners have come via the Cox Plate
  • 1 of past 5 winners been the SP favourite

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

2015 Good, Rail True

1st Wandjina – SP $7.50 54kg BR5 – 1st up, 17 weeks, 10th Group 1 Cox Plate 2040m Moonee Valley

2nd Disposition – SP $4.80 56.5kg BR3 – 11 week let up, 2nd Group 1 Kingston Town Stakes 1800m Ascot

3rd Stratum Star – SP $5.50 56.5kg BR10 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 2nd 3YO SWP 1300m Sandown


2014 Good, Rail True

1st Hucklebuck – SP $2.80F 55.5kg BR1 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st 3Y Hcp 1300m Morphettville

2nd Prince Harada – SP $7 54kg BR11 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 4th Manfred Stakes Group 3 1200m Caulfield

3rd The Quarterback – SP $6 55.5g BR8 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 3rd Manfred Stakes Group 3 1200m Caulfield


2013 Good, Rail True

1st Sheer Talent – SP $15 54kg BR9 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 4th Manfred Stakes Listed 1200m Caulfield

2nd Force Command – SP $15 54kg BR7 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 2nd Manfred Stakes Listed 1200m Caulfield

3rd Hosting – SP $8 54kg BR3 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 3rd Manfred Stakes Listed 1200m Caulfield

 

2012 – 1st That’s The One – SP $7.50 54kg BR5 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 2nd Manfred Stakes Listed 1200m Caulfield

2011 – 1st Bullbars – SP $7 56.5kg BR6 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 2nd Manfred Stakes Listed 1200m Caulfield

 

Major Players 

4. Palentino: Betting drift indicated that the stable had little to no interest in winning Manfred Stakes first up. He had little to no room in the last 400m, but that final section in 22.90 seconds. The profile favours horses second up coming through the Manfred stakes. His career best run is at this track and distance. Mark Zahra takes the ride and is most likely to sit three pairs back with cover. A standout.

5. Ready For Victory: Held up at vital stages in the Manfred Stakes before finishing off strongly for third. Is a proven Group performer and will have supporters. His early gate speed is of some concern and I’m not convinced he can came from behind Palentino to win.

6. River Wild: Has put two solid victories back-to-back in Sydney and heads to Melbourne for the first time. Victorian Niccoco finished a close second to River Wild last time in and he has only been racing in benchmark grade. Drops 5kg for this race, which brings him right back into it but the jury is still out taking on the smarter colts. Will lead from barrier 1.

7. Lizard Island: The only first up runner in the field but has quality 3YO formlines including a second in the Caulfield Guineas and the Norm Robinson. He recently trialled strongly against Scissor Kick and he looks to be wound up for this assignment. His data indicates that he could be better suited to 1600 or 2000m. Big market watch.

8. Vostok: Had his chance first up but suspect he’ll be better for that run. Produced his best performance last preparation over 1400m and profiles well for the race.

9. Tivaci: All came too quickly for him in his first preparation but showed glimpses of ability. Think his best racing will be around 1600-2000m. So keen to see him again before stepping into him at this level. Has definitely matured this time in.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – PALENTINO – 8 units at $3.50+

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – LIZARD ISLAND – 1 unit at $9+

 

 

R7 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes WFA 1000m G1

Speed Map

Lightning Stakes

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners have been first up
  • 4 of past 5 winners have raced in Group 1’s at their previous starts
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been Fillies or Mares
  • 3 of past 5 winners been the SP favourite (Black Caviar all three)

Previous Winners & Lead-Up Result

2015 Good, Rail True

1st Lankan Rupee – SP $2.60 58.5kg BR6 – 1st up, 13 week let up, 3rd Group 1 Darley Classic 1200m Flemington

2nd Brazen Beau – SP $5 55.5kg BR2 – 1st up, 11 week let up, 1st Group 1 Coolmore Stud 1200m Flemington

3rd Deep Field – SP $2.15F 55.5kg BR3 – 1st up, 16 weeks, 1st Group 2 Linlithgow Stakes 1200m Flemington


2014 Good, Rail True

1st Snitzerland – SP $5 56.5kg BR9 – 1st up, 13 week let up, 2nd Listed Early Grey Stakes 1000m Flemington

2nd Shamexpress – SP $7.50 58.5kg BR7 – 1st up, 14 week let up, 2nd Group 1 VRC Classic 1200m Flemington

3rd Samaready – SP $3.10F 56.5g BR3 – 1st up, 16 weeks, Group 1 Manikato Classic 1200m Moonee Valley


2013 Good, Rail True

1st Black Caviar – SP $1.10F 56.5kg BR2 – 1st up, 34 weeks, 1st Group 1 Diamond Jubilee 1200m Royal Ascot

2nd Moment of Change – SP $21 58.5kg BR2 – 1st up, 20 weeks, 1st G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes 1400m Caulfield

3rd Golden Archer – SP $41 58.5kg BR3 – 1st up, 14 week let up, 2nd listed 1000m Flemington

 

2012 – 1st Black Caviar – SP $1.10F 56.5kg BR5 – 3rd up, 7 days, 1st Group 1 CF Orr Stakes 1400m Caulfield

2011 – 1st Black Caviar – SP $1.28F 56.5kg BR6 – 1st up, 15 weeks, 1st G1 Patinack Classic 1200m Flemington

 

Major Players 

1. Chautauqua: Australia’s premier sprinter puts his title on the line again in a high quality Lightning Stakes. The only blemish on his record in recent times was a forgivable 2nd placing to Delectation in the Darley Sprint when trapped on the worst part of the track. He won first up last preparation and he races best up the straight on good rated surfaces. The one to beat.

2. Terravista: Near unbeaten 1st up, however the majority of those performances have been over his more preferred 1200m. That’s a chink in his armour today. Tactics will play a massive part in the outcome in this race and who better to ride than Damien Oliver.

3. Delectation: He flies up the straight but like Terravista, his best form is over 1200m. Coupled with his first up record being 5 starts for 1 victory he may be best suited second up. From all reports he’s come back bigger and stronger this time in and he’s racing in career best form. Expect him to be rock solid in betting.

5. Exosphere: Godolphin’s pin-up boy returns with two impressive trials under his belt. He was explosive when winning first up at Randwick beating Press Statement in the Run to the Rose. That was over 1200m which is where he has raced the majority of his career. He tends to sprint best off a moderate tempo so if they go breakneck speed to the 600m mark he may not produce his best. He’s a gross colt that should appreciate Saturday’s run under his belt. I couldn’t back him in such a high class field at the $2.70 on offer in early markets.

6. Japonisme: He was no match for Exosphere at two prior meetings until he was able to turn the tides in the one that mattered, the Coolmore Stud Stakes. He was the beneficiary of the hot rail that day and he excels with sting out of the ground, so I’m not going to hang my hat on that performance. A jump and run type who is suited to 1000m and will give enormous cheek out in front.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – EXOSPHERE – For 10 units

 

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider