Flemington, Saturday 16 January 2016: The Betfair Insider

Posted: January 14, 2016 at 5:34 pm

Betfair Insider

Flemington, Saturday 16 January 2016

Track

Good 4

Rail +6m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 15th – Max 19. Mostly Cloudy, 30% Chance of a shower.

Saturday 16th – Max 25. Sunny.

 

R6 Inglis Dash 3yo SWP 1100m

Speed Map

inglis dash

Race Profile

**NEW RACE IN THE SERIES**

 

Major Players

1. Gold Symphony – Won three of four races in his first preparation and looks well placed here with 58kg under set weights and penalties. He proved his class at his most recent wins, both at Group 3 level over 1100m in the Vain Stakes and last start in the H.D.F McNeil Stakes over 1200m. (Past winners of the Vain Stakes include Sepoy, Toorak Toff & Starspangled Banner) His recent sectional data indicates he can be used twice in a race and from barrier six mapping in behind the speed he’s the standout runner in this field. Despite reports that the Australian Guineas is his aim expect him to be forward enough to win here.

2. Rocky Boomboa – Last start Moonee Valley winner. He worked hard in the run early to find the fence before Damien Oliver gave him a big breather between the 600-400m marks. This looks another big leap for him and despite having a fitness edge on most of his rivals he needs to a lot to go his way to be a serious chance here.

3. The Big Dance – Cinderella story who surprised them on debut to land a big betting plunge. First up this preparation was honest under a big weight (60kg) and she fought on well to be beaten less than two lengths at this track over 1200m. Meets the second horse Mossin’ Around 2kg better off at the weights and is likely to be the first filly past the post with the drop in distance more suitable for her.

4. Hellbent – Brings strong Sydney form having placed in the Brian Crowley last spring and competing in the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes despite being beaten 7 lengths behind Japonisme. Resuming off a 42 week break he ran 2nd behind Lady Sniper in the 254k Inglis Sprint over 1100m. He was posted wide up and on the speed, but the winner came from wider in running. He’s since trialled well winning comfortably, working in blinkers. The blinkers stay on which is the first time under race conditions. He’s been $3.20 into $2.80 in early markets but I expect him to drift closer to race time.

5. Bitburg – Progressive galloper who ran well second up behind Lady Sniper in the Inglis Sprint finishing just over a length behind Hellbent in 7th place. Narrowly beaten at his next start behind Kangarilla Joy. Will be up and on the speed early but think he lacks the class to beat these despite doing most things right in his races.

9. Geoff – Won his maiden on raw ability at Pakenham. He wasn’t comfortable with the slow tempo early and pushed up to eventually find the lead. Ran home in OK time considering how green he was in the home straight. Could be a big improver but this is a steep rise in grade.

12. Mossin’ Around – Runner up to Magna Rossa second up at Flemington over 1200m on New Year’s Day beating home The Big Chance. She now meets that runner 2kg worse off and I expect The Big Dance to have improved remarkably from a fitness perspective. Maps to get a good run in transit and will be competitive.

14. Beyond Purple – Controlled the race to win on debut in OK time at Warrnambool over 1000m in late just over a fortnight ago. Not sure she had much left on the line so 1100m and the runner up in that event have been beaten in a Yarra Glen maiden since.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – E/W – GOLD SYMPHONYExpecting $5 offered in early markets to be well backed. I’ve rated him equal favourite with Hellbent.  Bet 2 units to Win & 3 units to place.

 

R7 Chester Manifold Stakes Listed Hcp 1400m   

Speed Map

Manifold Stakes

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winner have been SP Favourites
  • 5 of past 5 winners have raced at 1400m in their lead up run ( 2x Winners)
  • 5 of past 5 winners have carried 55kg or less
  • 5 of past 5 winners have been 2 weeks between runs

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead-up Result

2014 Rail +4m, Good 3

1st – Anlon – SP $3.50 fav 54kg BR 5 – 6th up, 2 weeks 1st Handicap 81k 1400m Flemington

2nd – Limes – SP $3.60 57.5kg BR 8 – 6th up, 3 weeks 1st BM95 85k 1400m Rosehill

3rd – Gig – SP $19 54kg BR 2 – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st F & M 0-84 80k 1400m Flemington

 

2013 Rail True, Good 3

1st – British General – SP $2.10 fav 55kg BR 1 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st Handicap 81k 1400m Flemington

2nd – Dash For Viz – SP $10 54kg BR 4 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd Handicap 81k 1400m Flemington

3rd – Under The Eiffel – SP $8 BR 11 – 5th up, 3 weeks 6th Handicap 100k 1440m Caulfield

 

2012 Rail +3, Good 3

1st – At The Heads – SP $10 54.5kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 5th Handicap 70k 1400m Flemington

2nd – Pied A Terre – SP $2.35 54.5kg BR 10 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st BM 0-78 80k 1200m Moonee Valley

3rd – Second Effort  – SP $9.50 57.5kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 1 week 4th Doveton Stakes 1200m Caulfield

 

2011 – Danzylum – SP $8.5 55kg BR 9 – 6th up, 2 weeks 4th Handicap 151k 1400m Flemington 

2010 – Danzylum – SP $12 54.5kg BR 1 – 6th up, 2 weeks 4th Handicap 151k 1410m Flemington

 

Major Players

1. Dances On StarsWent back off a wide alley in the Canterbury Classic last start and was posted three wide the entire trip. He stormed home late to run 2nd behind Cradle Me beaten just under a length. He was on the better going out wide with the surface rated a soft 6. He’ll also be able to sit closer in running than his previous start which is a big advantage given the race speed may not be as strong as some people think. The profile is heavily against horses above 55kg but at $7 he’s priced to closely to my ratings to make him a lay.

2. Tried And Tired This looks to be his grand final and going through his career starts he seems to always peak 3rd up and most of his wins have been at 1400m. I thought his effort in the G3 Standish Handicap was a pass as he failed to accelerate as quickly as the winner Durendal. His sectionals indicate that perhaps his condition gave out a little off the 27 day break. Importantly Mark Zahra sticks with him and he’ll map perfectly just off the speed.

3. DecirclesWill lead or most likely take a sit with Nicholas Hall engaged. His performance in the G3 Standish was a little below par despite going above benchmark to the 600m mark. Statistically his record at this track and trip is not strong enough for him to be serious contender but given his pattern of racing he’s hard to completely rule out at the price.

5. General GrooveHas impressed at both starts this campaign and his latest effort in the Christmas Stakes at Caulfield 3 weeks ago was the pick of the performances. Not convinced he can win settling near last buried on the fence from barrier one but he looks weighted to win and in the right vein of form.

6. Noela’s ChoiceLeft flatfooted at the 600m mark last start in the G3 Standish but scorched late running home her last 400 in 22.34 despite the race being over. Hard to know how effective she is second up and would prefer her 3rd up and over 1500-1600m in mares grade. Expecting her to drift from $7 in early markets with the race profile heavily against Mares.

7. SarajevoComes here fifth up after a pass mark in the G3 Standish last start after being stopped 250m from the line. After that piece of interference he still managed to run his last 200m in 11.44 which was the quickest of the race. He stays on the minimum here meeting Tried And Tired 1.5kg better at the weights. Given his racing pattern he always seems to find some amount of trouble. This looks to be D-Day for him but at the early market price of $3.50 – 3.70 I expect him to drift.

8. ZupachargedOnly ambled out of the barriers last start in the G3 Standish costing him significant position in running. That error aside, the run was hard to fault working through his gears running his last 400 in 22.48 200 11.48. He’s been very well placed in he is career to date and the rise to 1400m will suit. Expect Harry Coffey to be positive from the barriers and look to find the back of Decircles.

9. TudorLeader. Who comes here 7th up in his preparation although he’s had two small freshen ups. I’m convinced he’s a 1000m to 1200m max, he’s a horse with a short sprint suited better to smaller tracks than Flemington.

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY – E/W – SARAJEVOHappy to oppose him E/W at the short quote in a very even race. Lay him to lose 5 units to win & 2 units to place.  I’ve rated him a $5+ chance.

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider