Flemington, Saturday 12th March 2016: Betfair Insider – Super Saturday

Posted: March 11, 2016 at 9:18 am

Current Track Rating: Good 4

Rail: +3m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 11th – Max 30°C. Humid. Shower or two.

Saturday 12th – Max 25°C. Humid. Shower or two.

 

R6 Newmarket Handicap 3YO+ G1 1200m

Speed Map

newmarket handicap

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners have come through the Lightning Stakes
  • 1 of past 5 winners won the Lightning Stakes
  • 3 of past 5 winners have carried 56.5kg or less
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been second up

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Good, Rail +3m

1st Brazen Beau – BR 5 52kg SP $5.50 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 2nd Lightning Stakes Group 1 1000m Flemington

2nd Chautauqua – BR 3 55.5kg SP $3.20 – 2nd up, 4 weeks, 1st Rubiton Stakes Group 2 1100m Caulfield

3rd Terravista – BR 1 56.5kg SP $5.50 – 1st up, 13 weeks, 1st Darley Classic Group 1 1200m Flemington

Good, Rail True

1st Lankan Rupee – BR 12 56.5kg SP $6 – – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 1st Oakleigh Plate Group 1 1100m Caulfield

2nd Spirit Of Boom – BR 5 55.5kg SP $15 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st Oakleigh Plate Group 1 1100m Caulfield

3rd Knoydart BR 4 52.5kg SP $10 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 1st Oakleigh Plate Group 1 1100m Caulfield

Good, Rail True

1st Shamexpress – BR 10 51.5kg SP $15 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 2nd Lightning Stakes Group 1 1000m Flemington

2nd Moment Of Change – BR 6 56.5kg SP $3.20 – 2nd up, 3 wks, 2nd Lightning Stakes Group 1 1000m Flemington

3rd Aeronautical – BR 1 52.5kg SP $81 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 3rd BM 95 1400m Rosehill

Hay List – BR 14 58.5kg SP $3.80F – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 2nd Lightning Stakes Group 1 1000m Flemington

Black Caviar – BR 7 58kg SP $1.18 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 1st Lightning Stakes Group 1 1000m Flemington

Major Players 

1. Chautauqua: Australia’s premier sprinter put in a scintillating late burst to take out the Group 1 Lightning Stakes. The Lighting has provided the winner of the Newmarket four of the past five years, however only Black Caviar was able to win both. He’s much better suited at 1200m but poorly weighted under handicap conditions.

He was no match for Brazen Beau in last year’s Newmarket, although he was held up at a vital stage I doubt he would have challenged the winner anyway. We might see muddling tactics again which might be his undoing.

2. Delectation: He won the Darley Classic at WFA and drops 2.5kg under Handicap conditions. First up he was left slightly flatfooted by Chautauqua in the Lightning and will appreciate a 2kg weight swing an additional 200m. He has master tactician Damien Oliver aboard and knowing Chris Waller’s training patterns it’s easy to see him making up the margin of the Lightning defeat. Underestimate the runner at your peril.

6. Japonisme: Follows the same profile of last year’s winner Brazen Beau. He meets the Lightning winner 2.5kg better off here and looked the winner of the Lightning before being squeezed out for third. Like Delectation, he’s expected to go better second up but he’ll be able to travel more comfortably at 1200m. He has proven himself as a horse that can sprint strongly off fast or slow tempo through the first 600m so it’s no surprise to see him open short priced second favourite. Given this runner’s price in the market it’s staggering that Godolphin has elected to steer Exosphere away from this contest.

9. Keen Array: Boasts a second placing in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes at this track and trip. Big flop first up in the Oakleigh Plate (beaten 7.8 lengths) when they went 8 lengths above benchmark to the 600m mark. His figures say he can measure up and Shamexpress was beaten almost 8 lengths in his lead up in 2013 but that was a stronger race than this year’s Oakleigh Plate. One for the true believers.

10. Counterattack: He gets in with the feather-weight of 50.5kg and has form around Japonisme during the spring running third in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes. He was good first up in the wrong part of the track against his own age with the runner up Le Romain defeating Press Statement in the G1 Randwick Guineas suggesting the form should be taken seriously. Needs to go to a whole new level here but his trainer is the best in the country for peaking horses in Group Ones.

11. Secret Agenda: Whilst the Typhoon Tracey – Listed Group 3 1200m at Moonee Valley hasn’t provided the winner of the Newmarket over the past 5 years, Secret Agenda presents here as one of Australia most promising sprinting 3YO’s. She burst onto the scene with a scintillating win against her own age and sex during the spring carnival and did so in the worst part of the track. She’s probably better suited over 1100m and despite being a class filly is likely to come up short here.

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Chautauqua – To lose 10 units at $3 or less

R7 Australian Cup WFA G1 2000m

Speed Map

australian cup

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 have been third up
  • 4 of past 5 winners have come via the Peter Young Stakes
  • 4 of past 5 winners carried 59kg
  • 1 of past 5 SP favourites have won this race

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Good, Rail +3m

1st Spillway – BR 8 59kg SP $13 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 4th Peter Young Stakes Group 2 1800m Caulfield

2nd Extra Zero – BR 16 59kg SP $101 – 13th up, 2 weeks, 2nd Mornington Cup Prelude LR 2000m Caulfield

3rd Happy Trails – BR 4 59kg SP $4 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 2nd Peter Young Stakes Group 2 1800m Caulfield

Good, Rail True

1st Fiorente – BR 8 59kg SP $1.95F – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st Peter Young Stakes Group 2 1800m Caulfield

2nd Green Moon – BR 9 59kg SP $18 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 4th Peter Young Stakes Group 2 1800m Caulfield

3rd Foreteller – BR 5 59kg SP $12 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 5th Peter Young Stakes Group 2 1800m Caulfield

Good, Rail True

1st Super Cool – BR 2 54.5kg SP $5 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 1st Autumn Classic Group 2 1800m Caulfield

2nd Fiveandahalfstar – BR 3 54.5kg SP $11 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 2nd Autumn Classic Group 2 1800m Caulfield  

3rd Tanby – BR 11 59kg SP $26 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 5th Peter Young Stakes Group 2 1800m Caulfield

Manighar – BR 5 59kg SP $7 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 3rd Peter Young Stakes Group 2 1800m Caulfield

Shocking – BR 12 59kg SP $8.50 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 5th Peter Young Stakes Group 2 1800m Caulfield

Major Players 

1. Happy Trails: Looks over the odds if you look at his profile at this track and distance. Honest performance last start in the Peter Young Stakes and has been set for this race all preparation. Not sure Jamie Kah did anything wrong to lose the ride to Dwayne Dunn.

2. Preferment: Chris Waller’s Preferment put in a strong performance in the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes 1600m first up from an 11-week spell behind glamour mare Winx. Whilst he’s only second up here he does come through the strongest form lines in the spring competing in races such as the Turnbull Stakes, Cox Plate and the Melbourne Cup. Ignore his performance in the G1 Hong Kong Vase where the horse travelled poorly in the lead up to the event. He excels this track and trip and will win if he can replicate his Turnbull Stakes performance in 2015.

5. Our Ivanhowe: A genuine European stayer who had no luck in the Peter Young Stakes when travelling behind tiring runners. Very surprised Ben Melham didn’t push up and lead. Bow Creek was able to take off at the home turn and sprint quicker leaving Our Ivanhowe with little to no hope due to his inferior turn of foot. He’ll be much better suited on Saturday getting to the bigger Flemington track and from barrier one Ben Melham should lead or sit one pair back if he jumps cleanly.

6. Bow Creek: A dominant winner of the Peter Young Stakes after half missing the start. He appreciated the ‘sit sprint’ nature of the Peter Young and was able to put 1.5 lengths on the field in a twinkling of an eye. He travels keenly in the run and has been a ‘miler’ for the majority of his career. He’s yet to put two solid performances in a row together since landing in Australia but loos suited up to 2000m. $3.00 looks no value in early markets and I expect him to drift, but still rate him as a winning chance.

7. Almoonqith: Returned from a big Spring Carnival with a great first up performance in the Peter Young Stakes beaten 4.15 lengths. Damien Lane went back off a wide alley from Barrier 9 but he jumped cleanly so he could have settled much closer in running. His mid race sectionals indicate he’s come back strongly and with added fitness look for him to work into this strongly from the 600m mark and run a very big race.

9. Rising Romance: Another of the luckless runners in the Peter Young Stakes. Craig Williams had a ton of horse coming to the turn but couldn’t find a run for the entire straight. She presents here third up with a perfect barrier and she’s another that I’m shocked they don’t opt to ride in a more forward position. Needs to recapture her 2014 spring form to be a genuine winning chance and watching her last start replay you could argue that she’s not far away.

10. Suavito: A talented mare who comes via the unusual path of a CF Orr and Futurity Stakes. The rise to 2000m is a big question as she’s only genuinely proven at mare’s grade at that distance. I’d prefer to see her in the Blamey Stakes which she won last year after winning the Futurity Stakes.

11. Fenway: Runner up in the Peter Young Stakes who travelled well in transit and is looking for the step up to 2000m third up. She did win the G1 Vinery as a 3yo Filly at this distance but this is obviously a whole new level. Her past three starts indicate she can take the next step and her run in the G1 Myer Classic tells me she will appreciate Flemington more than her race record reflects. With added fitness I expect Blake Shinn to lead off an inside draw making her very hard to run down.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Preferment – 2 units at $6 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Fenway – 1.5 unit at $10 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Almoonqith – 1.5 unit at $15 or more

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider