Feature Race Reports: Rosehill, Saturday 18th March 2017

Posted: March 16, 2017

Current Track Rating: Heavy 9

Rail: Out 3m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.com.au

Friday 17th – Max 23c. Showers. Very Windy

Saturday 18th – Max 24c. Showers

R1 Irresistible Pools Manion Cup G3 2400m 3YO+ Qlty

Speed Map

(Note: Blue – Back, Best Profile/Value; Pink – Lay, Worst Profile/Value)

Gear Changes

#2 Kinema – Bubble cheeker off side off, cross over noseband off, lugging bit off, norton bit first time.; #6 Shalmaneser – Blinkers off, winkers back on.

Race Comment

Recent history suggests a pretty clear profile for this race. We are looking for an international stayer, with solid form at 2400 in Europe and possibly here as well, third up coming through the Parramatta Cup and/or the Randwick City Stakes. The Waller trained Kinema fits into the profile nicely. He is third up from a spell and gets an inside draw and Ryan Moore aboard. I expect he will race closer and be in the finish. Big Duke is the one to oppose. He comes here off some Tasmanian form at the end of a preparation and history would suggest that is not the best path to this race.

Confidence Level: Medium

Bet Recommendations

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Kinema

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Big Duke

R2 Tab Birthday Card Stakes G3 1200m 3YO+ F&M

Speed Map

(Note: Blue – Back, Best Profile/Value; Pink – Lay, Worst Profile/Value)

Race Comment

This looks a very even fillies and mares race and history suggests there is often little between them at the finish. Runners in the market dominate the past four runnings and no reliable lead up race pattern is discernible. Samantha is down in the weights and was a good Listed level winner last start. Her only defeat was at 1200 and she tries it again here. Hieroglyphics will see out a strong 1200 but is fourth up and might have spent all her pennies for this preparation. Almighty Girl has her best benchmark figure at 1200 and is a Group 3 winner. She is second up and the run last start at Canberra rated reasonably well.

Confidence Level: Low

Bet Recommendations

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Almighty Girl

R4 Ranvet Stakes G1 2000m 3YO+ WFA

Speed Map

(Note: Blue – Back, Best Profile/Value; Pink – Lay, Worst Profile/Value)

Gear Changes

#4 Our Ivanhowe – Approved race plates front back on, blinkers off, glue on shoes (front) off.

Race Comment

In recent years the race has been won by the middle distance stayer who has been set for the race third or fourth up from a spell. No preferred lead up pattern is obvious. The Sydney path is via the Chipping Norton and the Melbourne horses have tended to come out of the Australian Cup. The United States came through the Blamey last year and comes through the Australian Cup this time. He has the 2000m form on the board and whilst he is untried on heavy there is enough indications there to gamble that he will handle it. Hartnell has a question mark after being gone a long way from home last start and whilst Preferment always improves when he gets to 2000m and has trialled since his last run, there is a question about whether he can regain previous peaks.

Confidence Level: Medium

Bet Recommendations

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) The United States

R5 China Horse Club George Ryder G1 1500m 3YO+ WFA

Speed Map

(Note: Blue – Back, Best Profile/Value; Pink – Lay, Worst Profile/Value)

Gear Changes

#2 Veranillo – Blinkers first time.; #10 Formality – Blinkers (near cup) first time.; #14 Teaspoon – Winkers first time.; #16 Madeenaty – Winkers off.; #17 Chauffeur – Blinkers first time.

Race Comment

Two international winners in the last four years and the profile suggests you are looking for the best performed Group 1 horse. Obviously Winx fits the bill. She won it last year, comes through the right lead up etc etc. The horse to be on for the upset, or for second is Tosen Stardom. He fits the profile as a well performed Group international middle distance horse, trained here now. All his form is early in his career but when he came here the first time he went really well. His first up effort in the Futurity was full of merit and he will start over the odds. He could roll forward and put in a very good showing. Chautauqua is the horse to oppose. This race was never a target and he is a sprinter trying to stretch himself to 1500, past his best, despite the big effort last start.

Confidence Level: Low

Bet Recommendations

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Winx

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Chautauqua

R6 Sky Racing Rosehill Guineas G1 2000m 3YO SW

Speed Map

(Note: Blue – Back, Best Profile/Value; Pink – Lay, Worst Profile/Value)

Race Comment

In recent years the horse who has shown itself to be the superior stayer in the spring, third up from a spell, with this race a target, has showed up the horses who have good form at 1600 but are getting to 2000m for the first time. As you might expect for a set weights 3yo race, the market tends to be a good guide. Prized Icon really fits the profile. He is the VRC Derby winner, third up from a spell. This race would be a target and from a map perspective it is there for the taking. He is expected to race forward here in a race devoid of any speed and he could grind them into the ground. Perhaps the Randwick Guineas might be the preferred lead up but last year’s winner came from the Australian Guineas. Inference was dynamic in the Randwick Guineas. He was unlucky in the VRC Derby and looks very hard to hold out. NZ Derby winners with a similar profile to Gingernuts have a good record in the race as they are often superior stayers. It is
suggested to save on him and back the other two. Comin’Through gets to 2000m for the first time and is fourth up. Last start with Moreira on looked like his grand final. He is by Fastnet Rock and the one to risk.

Confidence Level: High

Bet Recommendations

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Inference

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Gingernuts

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Prized Icon

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Comin Through

R7 Longines Golden Slipper G1 1200m 2YO SW

Speed Map

(Note: Blue – Back, Best Profile/Value; Pink – Lay, Worst Profile/Value)

Gear Changes

#2 Veranillo – Blinkers first time.; #10 Formality – Blinkers (near cup) first time.; #14 Teaspoon – Winkers first time.; #16 Madeenaty – Winkers off.; #17 Chauffeur – Blinkers first time.

Race Comment

The early pace in recent years has been consistently fast at around eight lens above the class benchmark. There is no reason to expect it won’t be the same again. The best profile from recent years is for a horse at its fourth or fifth start, either second or third up, coming out of the right lead ups being the Todman or Reisling 2 weeks before the Slipper. Blue Diamond winners, Magic Million winners and seven day back up winners have been rare. Black Opal winners are even more scarce (1 Catbird). We have to be against the favourite Houtzen. The MM rated poorly (Chauffeur 0.5 len second, soundly beaten in Black Opal) and although the win was spectacular, she comes here with an unconventional QLD lead up at 1000m, onto heavy for the first time from the wide draw. She Will Reign has the runs on the board. She has started short and had the proper lead up. She was very good last time when gapping the rest of them after working hard near the lead, whilst the winner found the fast lane. She has the right profile and continues to blow in the market. Menari had reason to knock up last time after travelling well to the turn it could prove to be the right lead up. Barrier 1 could be a blessing. Diamond Tathagata is worth a ticket and should start shorter. He really hits the line and has had both runs on heavy. Whilst the BD rated well, Catchy and Pariah should be risked getting so far back, with the latter a Redoute’s Choice onto a wet track for the first time.

Confidence Level: High

Bet Recommendations

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Diamond Tathagata

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) She Will Reign

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Menari

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Houtzen

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Catchy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Pariah

R8 Nathan’s Hotdogs The Galaxy G1 1100m 3YO+ Hcp

Speed Map

(Note: Blue – Back, Best Profile/Value; Pink – Lay, Worst Profile/Value)

Race Comment

Recent profile for the Galaxy suggests steering away from the well performed high weighted runners and focusing on horses first or second up, down near the limit at double figure odds. 1200m horses are preferred to 1000m types. The Challenge and the Fireball feature prominently as the best lead up races. The Galaxy seems always to be run at a hectic pace with settling off pace, within 3–4 length of the leader, the ideal spot. Redzel is second up out of the Challenge, which often throws up the winner. The run was very good, wide without cover. His two best wins, at Group 3 and Listed level, came at 1100. Glenall is second up out of a good second in the Fireball. It is only his fourth race start. He is improving at every start and if he makes another jump, with the limit weight and an economical run, he can be in the finish. Russian Revolution is the other one who fits the profile but he will presumably have to lead or race wide on the pace which might not be ideal and the price looks rock bottom. We have to take on English again. She is poorly weighted here and will face difficulty from the back on a wet track.

Confidence Level: Medium

Bet Recommendations

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Glenall

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Redzel

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) English

R9 Bradford Black Epona Stakes G3 1900m 3YO+ F&M SWP

Speed Map

(Note: Blue – Back, Best Profile/Value; Pink – Lay, Worst Profile/Value)

Race Comment

Favourites have struggled in recent history with all four winners of the last four years being down in the weights and longer than $8. The Aspiration Quality features prominently as a lead up with 2 winners and six placegetters out of the last four runnings. Top of My List is worth another chance. Excuses were offered last time. A Rosehill heavy is different to a Randwick one and she has the best SP out of the lead up and slots into the profile nicely. Alegria narrowly went down in the lead up and is third up in this race. Both mares are on the limit weight.

Confidence Level: Low

Bet Recommendations

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Alegria

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Top Of My List

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