Feature Race Analysis: Ipswich, Saturday June 17 2017

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Feature Race Analysis

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R7 Ipswich Cup 2150m LR HCP $175,000

Track

Currently rated Heavy 8, Rail is in the true position in from the 9m point at the last meeting. Cloudy but mainly fine conditions leading up to Saturday which should ensure a track at the commencement of the meeting no worse than the current rating.

The predicted winds are only light which will not impact. There have been 17 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the best ground may well be away from the fence. There is also potential for horses racing handy to the pace to be advantaged.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo 

Interestingly, this race is normally run at a fast pace to the 600m with the average speed (last seven editions) being +14 lengths above PAR (standard time for track, distance and class adjusted for track speed variables on the day). For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: With more than 300m to the first turn the runners should be able to find their preferred positions. Sort After can come across and lead this field with Courts Star racing on pace. Kaiser Franz, Tears Of Joy and Paragon can race handy.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have three runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has four. At the time of writing Thursday, there is value in our top-two rated selections. Whilst both top (two) picks are value on current fixed odds each must overcome their predicted map positions. Accordingly, we have recommended reducing the stakes.

Runners

Hn Horse AS Jockey Hcp All Hr r2w$
1 Benzini 7G Kelly McCulloch 60 103 $7.53
2 Jumbo Prince 5H Jeff Lloyd 58 99 $4.64
3 Sort After 4M Corey Brown 54.5 95 $6.33
4 Kaiser Franz 6G Robbie Fradd 54 91 $54.2
5 Feltre 6G Micheal Hellyer 54 89 $21.9
6 Self Sense 6G Michael Cahill 54 89 $6.00
7 Magnatune 7G Larry Cassidy 54 81.5 $23.4
8 Pop N Scotch 6G Ronnie Stewart 54 76.5 $75.1
9 Courts Star 5G Tegan Harrison 54 76 $14.9
10 Paragon 5G Jim Byrne 54 74.5 $21.6
11 Tears Of Joy 5M James Orman 54 74 $84.8
12 Meteorologist 6G Tiffani Brooker 54 72.5 $306.8
13 Tessastock 4M Glen Colless 54 72 $20.5
14 Choysa 6G Kate Walters 54 67 $38.5
15 Barraaj 4G Luke Tarrant 54 63 $306.8


Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

2. Jumbo Prince: Coming off a last start Eagle Farm failure which from what we saw last week at Doomben is if anything, a plus. Prior to that run has raced well this preparation. Gets Jeff Lloyd for the first time and rates as the top pick here.

6. Self Sense: Settled about eight lengths off a slow early pace last time when warming up late and was strong thorough the line. Gets back again but has a genuine speed on here which will help a lot. Looms as one of the chances at good odds.

3. Rare Occurrence: Had a picnic leading last time at Morphettville but was weakening through the line which is a concern. Leads this field and will get every chance again but current fixed odds seem short to me.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be two potential value bets in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Jumbo Prince at $4.75+ (0.5% of your betting bank)

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Self Sense at $6.00+ (0.4% of your betting bank)

R8 Eye Liner Stakes 1350m LR HCP $175,000

Track

Currently rated Heavy 8, Rail is in the true position in from the 9m point at the last meeting. Cloudy but mainly fine conditions leading up to Saturday which should ensure a track at the commencement of the meeting no worse than the current rating. The predicted winds are only light which will not impact. There have been 17 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the best ground may well be away from the fence. There is also potential for horses racing handy to the pace to be advantaged.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: With a long run to the double turn that leads into the home straight all runners should be able to find their preferred positions. Decent speed drawn inside to out here with Flamboyer, Uno Best and Top Tone all capable from out wide, Monsieur Gustave mid-wide and Strawberry Boy drawn the fence all typical leader/on pace runners.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have six runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has four. At the time of writing Thursday, there is no value in any of our top four rated selections. Accordingly, there is no early recommendation.

Runners

Hn Horse AS Jockey Hcp All Hr r2w$
1 Shiraz 7G James Orman 59 101 $14.1
2 Snippets Land 6G Damian Browne 59 101 $25.4
3 Strawberry Boy 8G Tegan Harrison 58.5 100 $73.7
4 Federal 5G Corey Brown 58 99 $25.4
5 Flamboyer 6G Luke Tarrant 57 97 $23.0
6 The Virginian 4G Unknown 57 97 $9.85
7 Cantbuybetter 5G Josh Oliver 56.5 96 $8.90
8 Yesterdays Songs 6G Michael Cahill 56.5 96 $16.6
9 Casual Choice 7G Luke Dittman 55.5 94 $15.1
10 Perfect Dare 4G Jim Byrne 54 90 $9.45
11 Handfast 4G Robbie Fradd 54 89.5 $31.8
12 Acatour 3C Jeff Lloyd 54 87 $7.04
13 Top Tone 5G Larry Cassidy 54 87 $23.9
14 In His Stride 4G Paul Hammersley 54 85 $26.4
15 Taillevent 4G Glen Colless 54 80 $43.6
16 Monsieur Gustave 4G Unknown 54 78 $33.2
17 Sharpe Hussler 5G Ronnie Stewart 54 78 $55.3
18 Better Land 5H Unknown 54 77.5 $69.8
19 Uno Best 4G Unknown 54 74 $115.6

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

12. Acatour: Resuming off a 63-day spell. Jeff Lloyd has been booked and has had two trials in preparation for this. Normally races well fresh but will get back here.

7. Cantbuybetter: Racing very well, Lloyd is off Josh Oliver on. Another get back runner who will need luck.

10. Perfect Dare: Races best on firmer ground. Went well behind Deploy first up last start but was suited by the pattern.

6. The Virginian: No rider declared yet. Went well first up on the wet but was suited by the pace shape of that event.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be no potential value bets in the race.

Reassess closer to post time and compare the Exchange market against the r2w$ assessed prices.

R9 Gai Waterhouse Classic 1350m LR F&M HCP $100,000

Track

Currently rated Heavy 8, Rail is in the true position in from the 9m point at the last meeting. Cloudy but mainly fine conditions leading up to Saturday which should ensure a track at the commencement of the meeting no worse than the current rating. The predicted winds are only light which will not impact. There have been 17 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the best ground may well be away from the fence. There is also potential for horses racing handy to the pace to be advantaged.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: With a long run to the double turn that leads into the home straight all runners should be able to find their preferred positions. Average speed drawn towards the middle with Criquette, Slumber Party and I Am Zelady the most likely early. Maternal faces the prospect of a wide trip from the outside gate whilst Banda Spice, Dee Nine Elle, Kinshachi and Lucky Show Girl all have the speed to be within the first 6-7 runners.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have four runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has three At the time of writing Thursday, there is value in our top-rated selection.

Runners

Hn Horse AS Jockey Hcp All Hr r2w$
1 Kinshachi 4M Damian Browne 59 94 $11.6
2 I Am Zelady 5M Glen Colless 58 92 $4.57
3 Dee Nine Elle 4M Jim Byrne 55 86 $14.2
4 Banda Spice 4M Tiffani Brooker 54.5 85 $9.30
5 Maternal 4M Jeff Lloyd 54.5 85 $9.73
6 Notonyourlife 5M Robbie Fradd 54 81 $20.0
7 Hermosa Beach 6M Michael Cahill 54 80 $34.8
8 Queen Of Wands 4M Paul Hammersley 54 80 $22.3
10 Lucky Show Girl 4M Ronnie Stewart 54 76 $25.6
11 Maraam 4M James Orman 54 76 $24.0
13 Criquette 3F Micheal Hellyer 54 73 $19.7
14 Madame De Ban 4M Corey Brown 54 73 $39.6
15 Baroque Girl 4M Josh Oliver 54 72.5 $30.7
16 Round Mountain Gal 5M Andrew Spinks 54 70 $220.3
17 Slumber Party 3F Tegan Harrison 54 70 $10.8
18 Galway Town 6M Unknown 54 55 $229.4

Advantaged Horses

2. I Am Zelady: Another runner coming off a last start failure at Eagle Farm. Is likely to race close to the pace here which could easily be an advantage by this time of the day. Glen Colless can be patient and time his run to perfection. Clear top pick.

Neutral Horses

4. Banda Spice: Has had two runs back this preparation boxed on quite well last time. Will get its chance and current fixed odds ($10) appear about right.

5. Maternal: Drawn poorly so Jeff Lloyd will need to have a game plan. Racing well but current fixed odds ($7) are a bit skinny.

17. Slumber Party: Has raced well at both runs back this preparation. Will go forward and look the winner at some stage. Current fixed odds ($10) are about right.

1. Kinshachi: Has had three runs back now this preparation but her ratings are below what she achieved winning 3 of her 4 starts last preparation. Current fixed odds ($5.50) are short.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bets in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) I Am Zelady at $4.00+ (1% of your betting bank)

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