Feature Race Analysis: Doomben, Saturday 22nd April 2017

Posted: April 21, 2017

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Feature Race Analysis

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R3 Princess Stakes, 1600m LR 3YO F SW $100,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4, Rail is in the 1.5m position in from the 6m point at the last meeting. Intermittent showers leading up to Saturday with up to 7mm of rain predicted so we should see a track race slightly worse than the current Good 4. The predicted winds are only moderate so that should not impact. There have only been 3 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should advantage on pace runners.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts a Below Average to Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: Starts from a chute that turns before entering the back straight with a long enough run to double turn that leads into the home straight. turn giving all runners time to find their positions. Jim Byrne on Don’t Doubt Da Wife should be able to cross and lead easily. Paul Hammersley on Halfeti and Ronnie Stewart on Lyra can race handy with Damian Browne on Candika pushing up from gate 1 to hold a position.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have four runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has three. At the time of writing Thursday, our top-rated selection Candika is priced in line with our assessed odds. Our second and third selections are under our assessed odds. The race presents an opportunity to back our top-rated selection at or above our assessed price.

Runners

Advantaged Horses

1. Candika: Racing very well of late. After jumping well from the wide gate drifted well back settling too far from the lead before running on better than any runner last start. From the good gate and up to the 1600m on the quick back up this filly looks well placed to atone. Has a clear ratings edge on her rivals.

Neutral Horses

2. Our Beebee: Another filly who has been racing well save for her last start when I felt she was a little disappointing as favourite. Her main rival again is Candika who will be well on front of her coming to the turn which isn’t a good profile for turning the tables on that filly. Personally, I thought they would be better with a freshen up and bringing her back in distance. The main danger to the favourite.

Disadvantaged Horses

3. Sirens Fury: Arrives here from Sydney of good recent form, the latest on a Heavy 9 surface. That day she raced back in the field and ran on fairly in a race where the pace shape suited her chances. Was a bunched finish that day which concerns me a little and from the wide draw looks likely to settle back again. Current odds offer no edge.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Candika at $2.50+ (1.6% of your betting bank)

R6 Mick Dittman Plate, 1050m LR 3YO F SW $100,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4, Rail is in the 1.5m position in from the 6m point at the last meeting. Intermittent showers leading up to Saturday with up to 7mm of rain predicted so we should see a track race slightly worse than the current Good 4. The predicted winds are only moderate so that should not impact. There have only been three meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should advantage on pace runners.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average to Fast tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: Starts in the back straight with a short run to a double turn that leads into the home straight. A few trainers are going to have to make decisions here with speed drawn evenly across the track. The most likely candidates to push forward are Jim Byrne on Tiyatrolani, Michael Cahill on Dream Of Ascot and Ronnie Stewart aboard Hidden Light. Others like Moshki up from 900m have little option but to press forward or be caught wide the entire trip. The early speed of this suggests that the winner will need to run good overall time.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have six runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has three. At the time of writing Thursday, our top-rated selection Guard Of Honour is value odds. Our second and third selections are under our assessed odds. The race presents an opportunity to back our top-rated selection at or above our assessed price. Given the map though we will be reducing our bet.

Runners

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

2. Guard Of Honour: Appears here 56 days off a NSW and VIC campaign where it drops considerably in grade. Was off the track 5-6 wide last time and battled on quite well against much better horses. Draws awkwardly and is likely to get back further than what is ideal however the early speed in this race suggests he is more than capable of running a fast-overall time. Will need luck in running.

10. All Over Bosanova: Has come up short odds ($3.60) in early markets. Has done well winning all 4 career starts improving each run in her ratings. Likely to race in the first 6 runners and will get its chance. Will need to improve again to justify its current price.

6. River Racer: First up off a 98-day spell and gets Jeff Lloyd for the first time so is sure to have friends. Usually races well fresh and will be running on.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Guard Of Honour at $3.25+ (0.6% of your betting bank)

R7 Tails Stakes, 1600m LR HCP $100,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4, Rail is in the 1.5m position in from the 6m point at the last meeting. Intermittent showers leading up to Saturday with up to 7mm of rain predicted so we should see a track race slightly worse than the current Good 4. The predicted winds are only moderate so that should not impact. There have only been three meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track should advantage on pace runners.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo 

For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: Starts from a chute that turns before entering the back straight with a long enough run to double turn that leads into the home straight. turn giving all runners time to find their positions. Alannah Fancourt on Sheiswhatsheis crosses and leads here. Currently we have no rider for Pindan Pearl however if she starts can press forward from a wide gate. James Orman aboard Blackjack Bella can race handy. Sheiswhatsheis likes to roll along at an above average tempo.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have six runners single figure odds, the R2W computer has four. At the time of writing Thursday, our equal top-rated selections Single Gaze and Sheiswhatsheis offer little value. Our equal second selections are also under our assessed odds. At this stage, we are not able to recommend a value bet. We suggest you reassess closer to post time and compare the Exchange market against the r2w$ assessed prices.

Runners

Advantaged Horses

10. Sheiswhatsheis: Racing very well on the quick backup here back to 1600m where she will roll along and give them something to chase.

Neutral Horses

2. Single Gaze: Arrives here off a competitive run in Sydney last start on a Heavy 9. Will need luck in running but profiles as one of the main contenders.

5. Too Good To Refuse: One of the market chances. I thought he was a little disappointing last time when in front of yet run down by Brazen Moss. Started $2.35 favourite that day so that commands some respect here. Possibly needs gelding.

8. Brazen Moss: Got the better of Too Good To Refuse last start which I thought was a decent win. Racing very well this preparation and will be running on when it counts.

4. Sakhees Soldier: Not the worst here by any means. Can settle closer in this race from the gate and is better than current fixed odds suggest. If you are playing exotics then warrants a place position.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be no current potential value bets in the race.

Reassess closer to post time and compare the Exchange market against the r2w$ assessed prices.

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