Feature Race Analysis: Cranbourne Cup

Feature Race Analysis

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R8 Cranbourne Cup, 2025m LR QLTY $300,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4, Rail is in the true position in from the 9m at the last meeting here. Showers clearing Friday, partly cloudy on Saturday and mainly fine conditions on race day should ensure a track at the commencement of the meeting no worse than a Good 4. The predicted winds are light which won’t impact. There have been 22 meetings with this rail position in the last 1008 days. Based on the predicted conditions, the track could advantage horses racing handy to the pace and away from the fence in the straight.

Keep an eye on Twitter @PaulD01 for any updates during the day.

Tempo 

For Sunday’s race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Above Average tempo.

Early Speed Map

Map Notes: Starts in a Shute in the home straight with a long enough run to the first of a large double turn. With decent speed drawn across the field (those runners drawn wider that have early speed) will need to make decisions early.

Race Overview

Early fixed odds markets have five runners single figure odds, the R2W has three. The betting is headed by Lizzie Lamour with the import Folkswood and Nozomi together on the second line. Ecuador and Cool Chap are the other main market chances.

Runner Analysis

Hn Horse AS Jockey Hcp All Hr r2w$
2 Folkswood 5G Kerrin McEvoy 59 105 $5.50
9 Nozomi 6G Craig Williams 54 94 $8.67
1 Ecuador 8G Adam Hyeronimus 59.5 106 $10.1
11 Count Da Vinci 7G David Pires 54 92 $11.2
5 Lizzie Lamour 5M Damien Oliver 57 105 $12.3
4 Guardini 7H Brad Rawiller 58.5 104 $13.3
10 Our Century 7G Beau Mertens 54 93 $15.3
8 Cool Chap 5G Regan Bayliss 55 97 $16.3
17 Spanish Reef 4M Ben E Thompson 54 78 $16.6
14 Moonovermanhattan 6G Damian Lane 54 88 $18.9
16 Oncidium Ruler 6G Ethan Brown 54 83 $32.6
3 Assign 7G Katelyn Mallyon 58.5 104 $36.5
15 Red Alto 5G Michael Walker 54 87 $48.3
7 Big Memory 8G Luke Currie 55.5 98 $59.8
13 Magnapal 8G Nikita Beriman 54 90 $76.9
6 Berisha 6G Ryan Maloney 55.5 98 $189.8
12 Grey Lion 6H Dean Yendall 54 92 $304.0

Advantaged Horses

NIL

Neutral Horses

2. Folkswood: Import from the Charlie Appleby stable making his debut in Australia. Has a decent amount of early speed if required and from a tricky draw will no doubt look to press forward. If he finds a favourable on pace position early, he looks the logical favourite based on his overseas figures. Respect any late betting moves.

9. Nozomi: Got well back last time and ran on strongly but was suited by the pace shape of the race. Steps up in trip which isn’t a problem but offers no value on current prices.

1. Ecuador: Was suited by the on-pace bias last start. Looks one of the most likely to contest the lead but my concern is that his best ratings are when there is less pressure than what he faces here.

11. Count Da Vinci: Boxed on well off an above average pace last start behind Cool Chap. At his third run back this preparation he can perform competitively.

5. Lizzie Lamour: Was shuffled right back last start before running on well against the sectionals and bias. That run has stamped her early favourite for this. Whilst her run was full of merit, I must question whether the $5.00 current price is fair. She could win this but at the odds I must look elsewhere.

Disadvantaged Horses

NIL

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Folkswood at $5.50+ (0.7% of your betting bank) – BUT only if there is good betting support.

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