EURO 2016 – Round of 16: Switzerland v Poland

Posted: June 23, 2016

Grant Xhaka Switzerland

Round of 16

Switzerland v Poland

Saturday June 25, 11:00pm

Match Odds

 

Switzerland picked up five points in Group A as they drew against Romania and France and beat Albania in their opener to leave them second behind France. Poland also finished runners-up, but they managed two wins against Ukraine and Northern Ireland to go with a goalless draw against Germany.

Indeed, the Poles are yet to concede a goal in this tournament while Switzerland have only conceded one, but at the other end of the pitch these teams have only found the net four times between them.

Switzerland

Switzerland’s strong defensive showing comes as something of a surprise as they failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their six friendlies heading into the tournament.

The performances of Arsenal new boy Granit Xhaka sitting in front of their defence have no doubt helped as he’s picked up two man of the match awards already and is right up there with the likes of Kroos and Iniesta when it comes to touches and passes at the tournament.

However, Switzerland’s record against sides that are within 10 places either side of them in our rankings is W3-D3-L4 since 2013 and they’ve struggled defensively in these games, with no clean sheets in the last five.

Poland

Poland have now shut out their opponents in six of their last seven matches and their thus far unbeaten campaign means they’ve now only lost two of their last 23 matches, with one of those defeats coming against Germany in qualification and the other in a friendly against Netherlands.

When playing teams above them in our rankings, Poland are W4-D6-L3 since 2014 and if we exclude top-five opponents it’s W3-D4-L1 over the same period as the Poles have proved a very difficult side to beat in recent times. Indeed, they could easily have picked up maximum points in the group stages as they arguably had the better of the draw with Germany, spurning some excellent chances.

Verdict

Since all six games involving these teams so far at this tournament have seen fewer than three goals and five had fewer than two, it’s unsurprising that ‘unders’ is very short for this one. That’s strengthened by the fact that the first round of Euro knockout matches have tended to be low-scoring, with 14 of the 20 quarter-finals since 1996 seeing fewer than three goals.

Switzerland’s only win so far came in their opening game against Albania and sides that only picked up one win in the group stages have a W2-D6-L6 record in Euro quarters since 1996, while the team that picked up more points in the group stages are W7-D7-L2 in quarter-finals over the same period. As a result, and with ‘unders’ prohibitively short, the best bet in this one looks to be siding with the Poles.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Poland Draw No Bet at 1.88

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