Romania v Switzerland
Thursday June 16, 2:00am
Romania will probably feel a little hard done by not to have taken anything from their opening game with France, having put up a far tougher resistance than many expected. Switzerland, meanwhile, were slightly fortunate to hang on for their opening win over Albania as they failed to make the most of their chances.
It’ll be another tough test for the Romanians here as, while rate these two as the second and third best in Group A, the gap between the two is bigger in terms of our gradings than between the second and third best sides in any other group.
That victory over Albania means the Swiss have won eight of their last nine competitive matches those have come to nil while their only failure came against the one side ranked above them in that run.
At Euros, World Cups and Copa Americas since 1990 there have been 392 matches where we’ve had one side ranked 10-30 places higher and that team has won 57% while losing 18%.
Within this, in opening group stage matches where the higher ranked side had won their previous game and the lower had lost theirs the results change to W24-D10-L6, including W14-D6-L3 in the second match at tournaments.
These stats highlight how the better teams tend to be very tough to beat at this stage and even more so when they are protecting a good position in the group.
We certainly expect this to be the case here and Switzerland should play with greater confidence having got the opening-game nerves out of the way. Anything above 2.25 looks a good bet on the Swiss for the win but a draw isn’t the worst result for either side so we’d like to keep some cover on that by taking the Asian Handicap line.
BACK – Switzerland Draw No Bet