France v Switzerland
Monday June 20, 5:00am
With six points from their opening two games France are safely through to the next round and the only thing left is to win the group. The only side that can stop them doing that is Switzerland, who with four points from their opening two matches should also have done enough to qualify but would like a point to guarantee a top-two spot.
For all their attacking talent it’s taken goals in the 89th and 90th minutes for France to win their first two matches, as they’ve been held to a pair of goalless opening halves. However, while Romania and Albania are two of the tournament’s more defensive sides, that is not the case with Switzerland. The last time these sides met, at the World Cup in Brazil, it didn’t go well for the Swiss, as they were thrashed 5-2 and actually trailed 5-0 with 10 minutes to go.
France have won 11 of their last 12 matches, but question marks remain over their defence, as they’ve conceded in five of their last seven, while eight of their last 11 matches have had at least three goals.
Switzerland may only need a point to finish second in the group but four points is more than the average number of points for third place in a group at any of the last four Euros, so they look assured of at least taking one of the four best third-placed spots. Hopefully that means they’ll attack and look to win the game but, like France, they appear more comfortable going forward than defending. They’ve kept just one clean sheet in their last eight matches but in their final eight qualifiers for these Finals they scored 24 times.
Since 1992, the final group games at Euro Championships have seen Over 2.5 Goals land in 59% of matches – as opposed to 36% in the first and second matches – and this looks to have every chance of being the case again.
While Switzerland will hopefully take the game to France we don’t think they’ll have enough to win, and the match outcome prices look about right, but Over 2.5 Goals represents a value bet at odds-against.
BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 2.46