Germany v Poland
Friday June 17, 5:00am
World Champions Germany got their campaign off to a winning start with a 2-0 victory over Ukraine, but in truth that score line flattered them somewhat as their second goal came in the 92nd minute on the counter and the Ukrainians caused them some problems defensively. Poland, meanwhile, had to work hard to break down the Northern Irish but the breakthrough came in the second half and they went on to win 1-0.
The Germans hadn’t been in the best of form heading into the tournament as they’d lost four of seven matches, but when it comes to major tournaments, their record is W9-D3-L1 since the start of the last Euros and they’ve only conceded one goal in the last six of these going back to their final group game at the World Cup.
However, when playing sides they’re ranked between 26 and 46 places higher than, Germany’s record is just W2-D5-L2 since 2013 with both teams finding the net in seven of these matches, seven seeing more than two goals and six with more than three.
Poland continued their good form against Northern Ireland as they made it six wins in their last eight and their record when playing teams ranked in the world’s top-10 is W2-D4-L2 since 2011. They managed to find the net in the two defeats, with both teams in fact finding the net in five of these games and half seeing more than two goals.
These sides were in the same group in qualification, with Poland winning 2-0 at home before Germany exacted revenge with a 3-1 victory back in Frankfurt. That was the only time Germany have managed to beat Poland in their last four meetings since 2011 and with that in mind, the Germans look a little on the short side here at 1.62.
The best bet looks to be siding with the Poles +1 on the Asian Handicap since they’ve only lost one of their last 25 by more than one goal and both teams to find the net is also worth consideration at around the 1.8 mark since the Germans looked far from secure at the back against Ukraine and only managed one clean sheet in nine prior to this tournament. The excellent Robert Lewandowski, who is available at 3.0 to score anytime, will no doubt expose any weaknesses in the German defence.
BACK – Poland Draw No Bet at 1.91