Wales v Slovakia
Sunday June 12, 2:00am
Since 1996 there have been 13 group stage matches at Euro Championships that featured two teams from outside the top 20 in our rankings and the higher placed team has a W5-D3-L5 record.
Wales were unbeaten for their first eight qualifiers, including in both meetings with Belgium, but including friendlies they’ve now gone W1-D2-L4 in their last seven matches. Chris Coleman’s side were thrashed 3-0 in their warmup against Sweden but it’s worth noting that Gareth Bale didn’t come on til the 65th minute when the match was done and dusted.
Since 2013, Wales have won only one of their six games against teams placed 30th-60th in our rankings while failing to score four times and with four of the matches having fewer than three goals. The lack of goals is certainly a recurring theme in their recent competitive matches as nine of their last 12 games have had fewer than three goals, which increases to Under 2.5 Goals landing in nine of 10 matches when we remove their two games against teams ranked outside of our top-100.
Slovakia are a similar side to Wales in that they are heavily reliant on the talents of one star player, and in their case it is Marek Hamsik. Their form has been better than Wales’ since qualifying as they’ve beaten fellow qualifiers Switzerland and Iceland while their qualifying win over Spain was every bit as impressive as Wales’ win over Belgium.
They also have an excellent record over teams with a similar ranking as their opponents here, as they’ve won six of eight matches against teams ranked 35-75 since 2011. However, those were all friendly matches and if we look at competitive games against teams ranked 20-100 then they have just four victories in 14 games since the start of the Euro 2012 qualifying campaign. Significantly, eight of those matches had fewer than two goals and 12 of 14 had fewer than three.
BACK – Slovakia Draw No Bet at 2.00