Russia v Slovakia
Wednesday June 15, 11:00pm
Russia were dominated by England in their opener but salvaged a point with the unlikeliest of 92nd minute equalisers. That point against the group favourites should be enough to get Russia through to the knockout stages and they’ll be confident of a win here to all-but secure that progression.
Slovakia also failed to impress in their opener and a loss against the team we have ranked as the worst in this pool means they’ve got an uphill task ahead of them if they are to reach the knockouts in their maiden Euro Championships.
Russia’s draw with England extended their unbeaten run in competitive matches to five after they won their final four games to qualify for France 2016. This match marks the sixth time this decade that Russia have been ranked higher than their opponents in a Finals match, including all three group matches in Euro 2012, but Russia have won just one of the games: W1-D3-L1. More generally, Russia have now had six consecutive winless Under 2.5 Goals Finals matches: four 1-1 draws and two 1-0 defeats.
Slovakia were unbeaten in eight with five wins coming into the Wales game but, though they conceded late to a miss-hit, they didn’t deserve a point. They’ve faced teams ranked 15-40 five times over the last couple of years and, impressively, they are unbeaten with three stalemates. In competitive matches as the underdog in our ratings, Slovakia have gone W4-D3-L5 this decade with a whopping 10 Under 2.5 Goals matches (eight Under 1.5 Goals).
These two sides were paired in qualifying in 2006 and 2012 and overall they’ve played six times this millennium. Russia narrowly lead the head-to-head W2-D3-L1 but the most notable statistic is that all six matches have had fewer than three goals and the last four, all of which were competitive fixtures, have had Under 1.5 Goals.
BACK – Under 1.5 Goals 3.00