Ellerslie, Sunday, 24 January 2016: The Betfair Insider

Betfair Insider

Ellerslie, Sunday, 24 January 2016

Track Good 3

Rail out 2m

 

Weather forecast – www.metservice.com

Saturday 23rd – Max 28, sunny

Sunday 24th – Max 27, sunny

 

R3 Karaka 3Y0 Mile 1600m

 

Speed Map

Karaka Mile

Race Profile

  • 5 of past 5 winners SP < $3.90
  • 4 of past 5 winners have started in barrier 6 or closer
  • 3 of past 5 winners were male
  • 4 of past 5 winners won their previous start

 

Previous Race Winners and Lead Up Result

2015 – Volkstok’n’barrell – SP$1.50 56.5kg BR1 – 3rd up, 3 wks, 1st G2 Great N Guin. 1600m Ellerslie

2014 – Spellbinder – SP$2.50 54.5kg BR1 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st BM75 1200m Ellerslie

2013 – Choice Bro – SP$3.70 56.5kg BR6 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st BM85 1200m Awapuni

2012 – Rock ‘n’ Pop – SP$3 56.5kg BR3 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 5th 3Y0 open 1400m Tauranga

2011 – Banchee – $3.90 54.5kg BR13 – 6th up, 2 weeks, 1st 3Y0 open 1600m Ellerslie

 

Major Players

  1. ScrutinizeDisappointed in the Great Northern Guineas on New Years Day. It was his first outing at 1600m and given he has a tendency to be slowly away it’s a distance that has always promised to be suited to his style of racing. He was checked early in running but I thought he was entitled to finish off stronger. He looks under the odds in early betting at $2.80 priced more on potential than recent results.
  1. Tavago: Only defeat come on debut but two subsequent wins have been impressive, with Great Northern Guineas winner Rangipo finishing fourth in his most recent run. That was eight weeks ago in the Group 3 Wellington Stakes and Trent Busuttin has secured the services of Blake Shinn for this target. Expecting Blake Shinn will use his early tactical speed to settle two or three pairs back in running proving hard to beat. $4.00 in early markets looks fair given how well the race sets up for him.
  1. No More Tears: Won impressively last start but it was in much easier grade against BM75 opposition. She is a dual stakes winner and will enjoy an easy time pushing forward from an inside barrier. She’s rock hard fit off a 6 week back 3rd up to the mile giving her great foundation for this event, she’ll be in the firing line for a long way. Expecting her to drift from $4 in early markets but not inclined to lay her in a race with few serious chances.

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Scrutinize – 5 units at <$4.00

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Tavago – 3 units

 

R5 Karaka Million 1200m

Speed Map

Karaka Millions

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners had previous run in Australia
  • 2 of past 5 winners had previous run in Karaka prelude
  • 4 of past 5 winners were male
  • 4 of past 5 winners started in barrier 9 or closer

 

Previous Race Winners and Lead Up Result

2015 – Hardline – SP$7.80 56.5kg BR9 – 3rd up, 3 wks, 7th 2YO SW 1100m Rosehill

2014 – Vespa – SP$4.10 56.5kg BR4 – 4th up, 3 weeks, 3rd  3 Eclipse Stakes 1200m Ellerslie

2013 – Ruud Awakening – SP$1.90 54.5kg BR7 – 5th up, 2 wks, 1st Karaka 2Y0 Prelude 1200m Ellerslie

2012 – Ockham’s Razor – SP$6.40 56.5kg BR12 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 2nd 2YO SW 1100m Caulfield

2011 – Fort Lincoln – SP$42.30 56kg BR1 – 7th up, 2 weeks, 6th Karaka 2Y0 prelude 1200m Ellerslie

 

Major Players

  1. Manolo Blahniq: Superb winning the G3 Eclipse Stakes last start by a widening three and a half lengths. Had excuses on debut so could really be unbeaten. Last start was super impressive but very short in betting now and has drifted from $2.30 to $2.50 in early markets. I expect him to SP closer to $3.00.
  1. The Soultaker: Defeated Manolo Blahniq in the Listed Murdoch Newell at Avondale back in November. Since narrowly defeated by Sacred Elixir but meets him 1.5kg better under these set weight conditions. Will need luck from barrier 14 but has the services of Opie Bosson who will be looking to find the back of Damien Browne on O’Reilly Cyrus.
  1. Xiong Feng: Unbeaten in two starts and has strong form lines considering defeated The Soultaker on debut albeit over 880m, who subsequently defeated Manolo Blahniq at his next outing. Drawn the inside, which should be a big advantage aslong as the fence is OK. Likely to sit three pairs back in running and if he can run a strong 1200m looks a good overlay at $10 in early markets.
  1. Caorunn: Looks to have improved from his first preparation with dominant win at Awapuni last start defeating Showmeyamoneyhoney by almost three lengths. Most importantly proved himself over 1100m on a dryer surface. That form ties in with the favourite Manolo Blahniq, so expect he’ll have some admirers with Blake Shinn engaged after drawing barrier five.
  1. Sacred Elixir: Narrowly defeated on debut in 1200m maiden at Ellerslie and then returned to that track and distance to score a tight win over The Soultaker last start. Wide barrier and rise in weight are two negatives but could find the fence with even luck.
  1. O’Reilly Cyrus: Liam Birchley won this race last year and this filly looks well placed. She was impressive at her only start at Doomben, posted wide and was entitled to knock up given how hard she worked in the run. Her sectional data indicates to me that she can measure up here despite the wide gate. The recent barrier trial at the Gold Coast was enough to suggest she hasn’t taken a backward step. Damian Browne crossing the Tasman is another positive lead.

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Manolo Blahniq – To lose 10 units

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Xiong Feng – 1 unit

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – O’Reilly Cyrus – 2 units

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider