Ellerslie, Saturday 5th March 2016: The Betfair Insider

Posted: March 4, 2016

Current Track Rating: Dead 6

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.metservice.com

Friday 4th – Max 25°C. Sunny.

Saturday 5th – Max 25°C. Partly Cloudy.

 

R9 New Zealand Derby G1 2400m

Speed Map

NZ Derby

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners have come through Avondale Guineas (3 of 4 have won the lead up)
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been Colts
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 7 or closer
  • 5 of past 5 winners have raced at 2000m in their lead up

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

2015 – Mongolian Khan – BR 12 56.5kg SP $4 – 3rd up (freshen), 2 wk 1st Av. Gns G2 2000m Te Rapa

2014 – Puccini – BR 3 56.5kg – 4th up (freshen), 2wks 1st Avondale Guineas G2 2000m Te Rapa

2013 – Habibi – BR 1 54.5kg SP $3.00 – 2nd up (freshen), 2 wks 3rd Av. Guineas G2 2000m Te Rapa

2012 – Silent Achiever – BR 7 54.5kg – 3rd up (freshen), 2 wks 1st Av. Guineas G2 2000m Te Rapa

2011 – Jimmy Choux – BR 6 56kg – 6th up (freshen), 4 wks 1st Waikato Gns G3 2000m Te Rapa

 

Major Players 

1. Rangipo: Winner of the Avondale Guineas (profile standout race) although this time it was held at Ellerslie (has to be an advantage). He sat fourth on the fence and had every favour in transit and cruised up to the leaders at the top of the straight to kick clear. He looked as though he’d win comfortably but may have hit the front too early or may not be looking for 2400m. This time drawn in barrier 13 he’ll have to work harder to find position so with that in mind I’m happy to risk him at the price and expect him to drift from $6 in early markets.

2. Brighton: Had enough gate speed to sit closer in the run last start in the Avondale Guineas but eventually settled fourth last on the fence. He was tracking into the race strongly at the 800m before being held up between the 700-400m. Once clear he exploded to go down narrowly to the winner Rangipo. He looks well suited stepping up to 2400m and he was jumping from the Karaka Mile to 2100m off a month break last start. From an inside draw he can get a charmed run midfield and I’m confident he’ll be heavily backed from $9 in early markets.

3. Get That Jive: In typical Murray Baker fashion this gelding has had the perfect preparation leading into the Derby. He has genuine tactical speed which will allow him to use his inside draw to full advantage to settle two or three pairs back on the fence. His performance in the Avondale Guineas was honest but he looked to take along time to work up to top speed and was another who looked to peak on his run 50m from the line. He’s a big horse bred to relish 2400m, maps perfectly and is from a popular stable so he should run the SP favourite.

4. Raghu: Tough on pacer who always who has only missed a place at one of his eight starts. His last three starts have been in all the right lead up events for this and he’s never finished further back then a neck in each of those events. He will push forward and hold the lead comfortably and if his jockey can give him a few cheap mid race sections he can pinch this.

8. The Hassler: Settled well back in the Avondale Guineas and hit the line hard down the outside alongside Get The Jive. He was set alight from the 700m mark on a long sustained run and was forced widest on any runner taking a hundred metres to balance up properly. He’s by Melbourne Cup winner Shocking out of a Zabeel Mare so it’s likely to see him go to a new level once he hits 2400m. Barrier 14 is a slight negative meaning he’ll need luck to slot in and is likely to be fanned wide in the home turn once again. Knockout, but needs plenty to go right.

15. Valley Girl: Has looked a likely type for a while and stamped herself as a contender with a strong win on Karaka Millions day over Predator in the maiden mile. Handled the rise to 2000m with ease defeating the older horses to take out the G1 Herbie Dyke over 2000m. She’s comes here off a 21 day break and I have no doubt 2400m will suit. I’d prefer another run under her belt and connections have indicated the Sydney Autumn carnival is on her radar. Looks under the odds after drawing barrier 18 but she can make her presence felt.

16. Capella: A winner of the G2 Eight Carat over 1600m before Christmas two starts ago at Ellerslie with Valley Girl 3.5 lengths back in third place. She went down narrowly last start in the G2 Sir Tristam over 2000m off a 7 week freshen up. She was forced to make a sustained run 600m out with no cover and layed out badly in the straight. With plenty to learn in regards to race manners I’m not convinced she’s ready for 2400m at this level just yet. Leith Innes will need to conserve as much energy as he can in transit for her to be a strong winning chance.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Brighton – 2.5 units at $8+

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Get That Jive – 2.5 units at 6+

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider