Ellerslie, Saturday 28 November 2015
Weather Forecast – www.metservice.com
Friday 27th – Max 23, possible showers
Saturday 28th – Max 22, light rain
Profiling the race we learn the following:
- 3 of past 5 winners were last start winners
- 2 of past 5 winners were female
- 2 of past 5 winners were third up
- 5 of past 5 winners <$5.50
Previous race winners & Lead up result:
2014 – Good 3 – Sakhee’s Soldier – SP $4.30 55kg BR3 – 5th up, 1 week, 1st Open Handicap 1600m Avondale
2013 – Dead 5 – Lady Kipling – SP $3.40 55kg BR12 – 3rd up, 1 week, 3rd Group 2 Auckland Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes 1400m Avondale
2012 – Good 3 – Viadana – SP $3.10 53kg BR3 – 3rd up, 4 weeks, 1st Carbine Club Trophy 1600m Ellerslie
2011 – Good 2 – Veyron – SP$5.50 58kg BR5 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 4th Listed Timpson Family Trust Sprint 1200m Te Rapa
2010 – Good 3 – Salvatore – SP$2 56kg BR10 – 11th up, 2 weeks, 1st Group 3 Tauranga Stakes 1600m Tauranga
Sakhee’s Soldier – Defeated Rising Romance in the Group 1 New Zealand Stakes 2000m to round off a fantastic preparation in the autumn but appears to be struggling for form in two runs this campaign, which is uncharacteristic for such a previously consistent horse. Boasts a great record at this track and distance (3:2-1-0) and drawn to get sweet run from barrier four to hopefully improve.
Survived – Two runs since joining the Murdoch stable this campaign have been terrific, including fast finishing fourth, beaten less than half a length behind Soriano, Kawi and Julinksy Prince in Group 2 Tuaranga Stakes last start. Will be certainly suited to the drop back to handicap grade after previous strong showing at weight-for-age. Hard to see how this horse misses running a place.
Queens Rose – On the quick back-up after encouraging second behind Soriano last Saturday in Group 2 Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes at 1400m. Nicely suited dropping back to 53.5kg and will be advantaged by inside barrier draw. Looks the pick of the mares in this race and value in early betting at around $13.
Rasa Lila – Freshened since storming from the tail of the field to win much easier open handicap over the same track and distance last start a month ago. Great record at the distance (7:3-2-2) and also yet to miss a place in four starts at Ellerslie. She may be unbeaten in two runs this preparation but appears very short in early fixed odds betting at $3.20 considering she is yet to be proven at this level. Take her on.
Stolen Dance – Lightly raced mare who is returning to stakes company after rising through the grades in impressive style. Improved her record to six wins from 10 starts by easily defeating Sierra Beel in open handicap at Te Rapa last start. Look for her to roll forward from barrier eight and give plenty of cheek with only 53kg on her back.
BACK – E/W – Survived: Drops 4kg from brilliant run in feature weight-for-age contest last start and huge odds in early betting at around $8. Should be favourite so bet accordingly.