Ellerslie, Friday 1 January 2016: The Betfair Insider

Posted: December 31, 2015

Betfair Insider

Ellerslie, Friday 1 January 2016

Track: Good 3

Rail: out 3.5m

Weather forecast – www.metservice.com

Thursday 31stMax 27, mostly sunny

Friday 1st – Max 22, showers

 

R7 Group 3 City Of Auckland Cup 2400m

Speed Map

Auckland Cup

 

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners raced in Waikato Times Gold Cup at previous start
  • 0 of past 5 SP favourites have won
  • 1 of past 5 winners carried >54.5kg
  • 3 of past 5 winners started from barrier 12 or wider

Previous Race Winners and Lead-Up Result

2015 – Delago’s Secret – SP$9.70 53.5kg BR12 – 5th up, 3 weeks, 4th Group 3 Waikato Times Gold Cup 2400m Te Rapa

2014 – Mosquito – SP$10.90 54.5kg BR5 – 7th up, 3 weeks, 7th Group 3 Waikato Times Gold Cup 2400m Te Rapa

2013 – Hiace – SP$41.50 54kg BR6 – 8th up, 3 weeks, 1st BM75 2400m Te Rapa

2012 – Single Minded – SP$11.10 58kg BR15 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 1st BM75 2400m Te Rapa

2011 – Showcause – SP$12.80 51.5kg BR13 – 8th up, 3 weeks, 8th Group 2 Waikato Times Gold Cup 2400m Te Rapa

 

Major Players

  1. Farm Boy On the quick back-up after finishing 7th in the Group 1 Zabeel Classic 2000m last week behind Kawi. Drops significantly in grade but as a result is forced to carry 60kg from barrier 13. Prepared to take him on as he looks much too short in early markets at $5.
  2. Decorah Produced solid run in what is traditionally best form race for this when third behind Vavasour in the Group 3 Waikato Times Gold Cup. Drops 2.5kg from that effort and likely to get back in the field so wide barrier not too much of a hindrance.
  3. King Kamada Surged to the line from back in the field to run 2nd in Group 3 Manawatu Cup 2300m last start behind Wearegoingtogetcha. Seems nicely weighted with 56.5kg considering was beaten a very small margin when second to Farm Boy earlier this year in Group 2 Avondale Cup at this distance when carrying only 0.5kg less. Now meets the favourite 3kg better from that run and should be afforded nice run from the barrier.
  4. Show The World Raced a touch keen last start and appeared on empty from the top of the straight in Awapuni Cup Prelude 2000m. It was only his second run of the campaign and it would not surprise to see a sharp form reversal here at big odds. He meets rivals Farm Boy and King Kamada much better at weights compared to previous encounters. Leading chance on best form no doubt.
  5. The Tidy Express Fits the profile of carrying a light weight of 54.5kg and was solid behind Vavasour in what has been the best traditional lead up, the Group 3 Waikato Times Gold Cup. Drawn to once again get a soft run just behind the speed and trainer Roger James is one of the best in the business at preparing stayers.
  6. Pentathlon Rises to stakes company for the first time of career and arrives in great form having won previous four straight over staying distances. Had a month to freshen since comfortable victory in 3200m BM85 at Trentham and history shows this race can be won by a horse rising from restricted grade.
  7. Storming The Tower Nice 4th last start in Waikato Times Gold Cup 2400m and massive odds considering drop down to the limit weight here of 53kg. Should be a $15 chance, not as long as $35 in early betting.

Betting Strategy

Laying on BetfairLAY – WIN – Farm Boy – To lose 20 units

Back on BetfairBACK – WIN – Show The World – 3 units to win

Back on BetfairBACK – WIN – The Tidy Express – 2 units to win

Back on BetfairBACK – WIN – Storming The Tower – 1 unit to win

 

R8 Group 2 Rich Hill Mile 1600m

Speed Map

Rich Hill Mile

 

Race Profile

  • 0 of past 5 SP favourites won
  • 4 of past 5 winners had barrier 12 or wider
  • 3 of past 5 winners carried 53kg or less
  • 5 of past 5 winners were having at least fifth run of campaign

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead-Up Result

2015 – Sakhee’s Soldier – SP$7.10 55kg BR12 – 6th up, 5 weeks, 1st Group 3 Eagle Technology Stakes 1600m Ellerslie

2014 – Chintz – SP$7.40 52kg BR12 – 5th up, 1 week, 2nd BM85 1400m Ellerslie

2013 – Miss Pelear – SP$28.40 53kg BR13 – 9th up, 2 weeks, 8th Group 2 Cal Isuzu Stakes 1600m Te Rapa

2012 – Platinum Princess – SP$10.90 57kg BR4 – 5th up, 4 weeks, 7th Group 1 Captain Cook Stakes 1600m Trentham

2011 – Fears Nothing – SP$9.50 52kg BR14 – 7th up, 3 weeks, 2nd BM90 1600m Awapuni

Major Players

3. Rasa LilaThis mare is racing extremely well this campaign with two wins and two very good placings behind Stolen Dance. Once again she has drawn an awkward barrier which is likely to force her back in the field from the start. She has the right form to win this race.

7. HasselhoofExciting four-year-old who is unbeaten in five starts. This is clearly the toughest test he has faced and his first experience of stakes racing. Donna Logan has carefully planned his preparation and is no stranger when it comes to top class racing. He looks very adaptable and was brilliant first-up with 60kg.

9. Victor HugoWinner of his past three in easier company, therefore deserves an opportunity in this grade. Drops to an ideal weight and Murray Baker’s stable must be respected. He boasts a terrific record at the mile (9:5-1-0) and could be the knockout to the two main hopes.

 

Betting Strategy 

Back on BetfairBACK – PLACE – Rasa Lila – 20 units to place at $2.20 or better

 

R9 G1 Railway Stakes 1200m

Speed Map

NZ Railway Stakes

 

Race Profile

  • 1 of past 5 winners carried >54kg
  • 3 of past 5 winners had at least six weeks since previous run
  • 2 of past 5 winners were SP favourite

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead-Up Result

2015 – In Style – SP$6.60 54kg BR8 – 5th up, 4 weeks, 1st Group 3 Concorde Handicap 1200m Ellerslie

2014 – Bounding – SP$4.10 52kg BR1 – 5th up, 7 weeks, 2nd Group 1 1000 Guineas 1600m Riccarton

2013 – Fluer De Lune – SP$9.70 54kg BR5 – 6th up, 6 weeks, 8th Group 2 Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes 1400m Pukekohe

2012 – Atomic Force – SP$2 58kg BR12 – 7th up, 6 weeks, 1st Welter 1100m Canterbury

2011 – Miss Raggedy Ann – SP$87.10 53kg BR9 – 4th up, 1 week, 11th Listed Hallmark Stud Newmarket Handicap 1200m Ellerslie

 

Major Players

  1. Sacred Star Back to the races for the first time since credible 6th in Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap during Brisbane winter carnival. Benchmark horse of the race but 1200m hasn’t traditionally been his preferred distance and he may be better suited at weight-for-age deeper in to the carnival when he gets to 1400m. Recent trial over 1000m suggesting he has come back in good order.
  2. Allez Eagle Resuming on the back of a seven week freshen following two runs at 1600m in the Group 1 Windsor Park Plate, where he finished second to Julinsky Prince and then fourth to Addictive Habit in the Group 2 Coupland’s Mile. Drawn to get the run of the race from the inside gate and should be strong at the end of the 1200m.
  3. In Style Winner of this race last year and returns to New Zealand following two encouraging runs in Melbourne, including close fifth behind Famous Seamus in Group 3 Heffernan Stakes at Sandown. Early price of $14 appears quite generous considering imposing record at this track and distance (7:4-1-0).
  4. Natuzzi Needed every bit of the 1400m to win last start in the Listed J Swap Sprint at Te Rapa last start. Drops in distance and also comes down in weight after carrying 60kg in the easier contest last start. Happy to take on at 1200m, especially at his price of $6.
  5. Ryan Mark Bombed the start and made it hard for himself last start when third in Group 3 Concorde Handicap last start carrying 59kg. He should have beaten Allez Eagle when they last met in Group 3 Kelt Memorial at Hastings in October and now 1.5kg better at handicaps. Looks the one to beat.

Betting Strategy

Laying on BetfairLAY – WIN – Natuzzi – Lay to lose 15 units

Back on BetfairBACK – WIN – Ryan Mark – 3 units to win