Eagle Farm, Saturday June 25th 2016: The Betfair Insider – Tatts Tiara

Current Track Rating: Soft 5

Rail: 6m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 24th – Max 23°C. Partly Cloudy with 30% of rain.

Saturday 25th – Max 19°C.Sunny with light winds.

 

R8 Tatts Tiara G1 1400m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners have been last start winners
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been 3yo Fillies
  • 2 of past 5 winners have used Dane Ripper as lead up
  • 1 of past 5 winners have used Stradbroke Handicap as lead up
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been SP favourites

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Soft 5, Rail True

1st – Srikandi – BR15 57kg SP $4.20 fav – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st Stradbroke Handicap G1 1350m Eagle Farm

2nd – Avoid Lightning – BR 1 57kg SP $7.50 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 2nd June Stakes Listed 1100m Randwick

3rd – Lumosty – BR7 55.5kg $6.00 – 4th up – 2 weeks 10th Stradbroke Handicap G1 1350m Eagle Farm

Good 4, Rail +5m

1st – Cosmic Endeavour – BR 5, 55.5kg SP $5 – 9th up, 3 wks 1st Inglis Guineas 1400m Scone

2nd – Angel Of Mercy –BR 9, 57kg SP $26 – 7th up, 4 wk freshen 1st Mayors Cup 1615m Doomben

3rd – Avoid Lightning – BR 11, 57kg SP $10 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st June Stakes 1100m Randwick

Good 4, Rail +1.5

1st – Red Tracer – BR 16, 57kg SP $4.80 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Dane Ripper G2 1400m Eagle Farm

2nd – Streama – BR 1, 57kg SP $4.4 fav – 2nd up, 2weeks 3rd Stradbroke Hcp G1 1400m Eagle Farm

3rd – Floria – BR 11, 57kg SP $21 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd Dane Ripper G2 1400m Eagle Farm

Pear Tart – BR 14 55.5 kg SP $15 – 5th up, 3 weeks 1st QLD Guineas G2 1400m Eagle Farm

Yosei – BR 1 55.5kg SP $15 – 3rd  up, 2wks 14th  Dane Ripper G1 1400m Eagle Farm

Major Players 

1. Azkadellia: Didn’t fire second up in the Stradbroke Handicap after a gut busting Doomben 10,000 placing second to Music Magnate. She was back and in the wrong part of the track in the Stradbroke and was entitled to finish closer than the 10.7 length margin given she can handle ‘soft’ surfaces. Trusting Ciaron Maher progressing with her campaign but can’t possibly entertain the early market price of $2.50. Impossible to rule out as a winning chance given her rating advantage but I would only entertain her as a betting proposition at $4.00 or better.

3. Precious Gem: Impressive winner at Group 1 level in Adelaide and appears to have gone to a new level for Henry Dwyer who is placing his horses exceptionally well. Her last start effort in the Stradbroke Handicap was better than it reads on paper. Well out of her ground, going back from a wide gate to weave a passage home in the straight. Now off a two week break back to her own sex is a much better set up. The only negative is that all eight wins have come on Good rated tracks, her heavy placing have been at BM70 level so whilst she can handle some cut out she’s clearly most effective on top of the ground. Knockout Chance.

4. Cradle Me: Another Mare in peak form winning the Dane Ripper a fortnight ago. She handles soft going but like Precious Gem is better suited to Good rated tracks. Zac Purton can let the race unfold around him from Barrier 13 which should be the best place to be this late in the day. She fits the profile as a last start winner coming through a key lead up race and the only negative I can find is how deep she is into her preparation. If she holds her form $8.50-$9.00 in early markets is a fair price.

5. Miss Cover Girl: Can drop a big a big number under the right circumstances and looking at her data I’m inclined to think she blew out in condition over her final 200m in the QTC Cup, which was off a 21 day break. The key run I like is four starts ago with a fifth beaten only 1.8 lengths to Amicus in the Breeders Classic at Randwick over 1200m. As a 3YO she was competitive out to a mile so I have no issue with a strongly run 1400m here. Damien Browne can take a sit in behind the leaders and stalk the speed. Looks a massive price for a horse set to peak fourth up against a field that are coming here very deep into their preparation.

7. Sultry Feeling: Has all the right lead up form and comes here off a seven week freshen up and was OK in a recent Randwick trial. Races best fresh but is yet to win beyond 1400m.

9. Scarlett Billows: Very capable mare who settles well back in running and races best in high pressure races. Thought she ran well at Ipswich, taken back off a wide gate and ran home well after being ‘squeezed up’ by the eventual winner at the top of the straight. She gets ideal conditions here with a track that is likely to favour horses back and wide. I’m confident Darren Weir has had this race in mind since her unlucky effort in the Group One Robert Sangster in Adelaide where she was heavily backed into $7.00 SP Favourite. This looks a tougher assignment but every time she rises to Group One level she applies herself very well. Meets Blueberry Hill 3.5kg better at the weights this time.

11. Artistry: Typically good set up from team Snowden leading into a Group One race. Raced well in the Dane Ripper off a 28-day break so think she’s the horse to beat from that form reference. She meets those coming from the Dark Jewel Classic at Scone better art the weights and she’s still on the upward spiral. Fits the profile and can win provided the track isn’t too wet.

16. My Poppette: Complete forgive last time and every start this preparation has been enormous. Bred to handle a soft rated surface and like Miss Cover Girl has that extra element of freshness on her side. Barrier 16 might not be the worst place to be this late in the day and If the track is playing ‘up and on’ she’ll be specked at big odds.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Cradle Me for 2 units at $8 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Miss Cover Girl for 1 unit at $20 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Scarlet Billows at 1 unit at $15 or more.

 

 

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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