Eagle Farm, Saturday 4th June 2016: The Betfair Insider – QTC Cup

Current Track Rating: Good 4

Rail: Ture

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 3rd – Max 23°C. Showers (3-15mm)

Saturday 4th – Max 25°C. Rain (30-80mm)

 

R6 QTC Cup Group 2 1300m Quality

Speed Map

QTC Cup

Race Profile

  • 6 of the past 10 winners have been 4yo’s
  • 5 of the past 10 winners SP favourites have won the race
  • 5 of the past 5 winners have carried 56.5kg or less, Falkirk was the last 3yo Colt 2004
  • 3 of the past 5 winners have been 4 weeks or more between runs

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Good 3, Rail +5 (Doomben)

1st Ball of Muscle – BR 1 56.5kg SP $3.30 – 3rd up, 5 weeks, 2nd Victory Stakes Group 2 1200m Gold Coast

2nd That’s A Good Idea – BR 8 57.5kg SP $3.70 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st Ortensia Stakes LR 1150m Scone

3rd Kuro – BR 2 57kg SP $3.70 – 5th up, 3 weeks, 1st Mick Dittman Stakes LR 1200m Doomben

Good 3, True

1st Sacred Star – BR 4 54.5kg SP $5.50 – 1st up, 13 weeks, 2nd NRM Sprint Group 1 1400m Te Rapa

2nd Masthead – BR 8 53kg S P$7 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 4th Luskin Star LR 1300m Scone

3rd Bennetta – BR 5 53kg SP $5.50 – 3rd up, 4 weeks, 6th All Aged Stakes Group 1 1400m Randwick

 Soft 6, Rail +3.5

1st Galah – BR 10 53kg SP $5.50 – 2nd up, 4 weeks, 8th The Goodwood Group 1 1200m Morphettville

2nd Conservatorium – BR 14 56.5kg SP $17 – 3rd up, 4 weeks, 8th The Goodwood Group 1 1200m Morphettville

3rd Griffon – BR 2 53kg SP $11 – 3rd up, 1 week, 4th Chief De Beers LR 1110m Doomben

Celtic Dancer – BR 1 54.5kg SP $11   – 6th up, 2 weeks, 6th BRC Sprint Group 3 1350m Doomben

Varenna Miss – BR 15 53.5kg SP $13 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st 2MW Hcp 1200m Doomben

Major Players 

3. Target In Sight: He’s fourth up with a nice fitness base heading into this race. He was an eye catcher in the BTC Cup when hitting the line hard behind Malaguerra. He’s handled soft tracks previously but a heavy could dull his sprint. He looks a great chance on dry and but just a good chance on the wet.

4. Snippets Land: This 5YO gelding is absolutely flying this prep. He won the BRC Sprint in good time. He too handles the wet but goes a length or two better on the dry. With a good fitness base under his belt he looks to be a great chance.

6. Kaepernick: A dynamic racehorse on his day, he returned with an impressive run at Scone when taking out The Ortensia eased down by 2.3L. The sloppy conditions expected will take away his x-factor which is to be ‘cuddled up and then drop’ on the rest of the field. At $3.50 I’d be prepared to lay.

11. Spill The Beans: He’s been up since February which actually isn’t the worst thing heading into a potential bottomless track. He’s an honest on speed type but has been racing against his own age and I’d be prepared to risk him on Saturday.

13. Sure and Fast: Only beaten 3.8L by Snippets Land in the BRC Sprint. He’s a noted wet tracker and has the most potential for upside from a fitness prospective  

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Kaepernick – 10 units at < $4.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Sure And Fast – 1 unit at $15 or more.

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

Related Articles