Eagle Farm, Saturday 4th June 2016: Ratings 2 Win – Queensland Oaks Race Analysis

Posted: June 2, 2016

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Feature Race Analysis

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R7 Queensland Oaks 2400m GP1 3YO F SW $500,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4, with a minimum of 60mm of forecast rain the track is more likely to be in the Heavy range, Rail is in the true position.

Much discussion has been had in the lead up to the resumption of racing at Eagle Farm. A rain affected, newly cambered, remodelled and resurfaced track could throw some surprise results. For form analysts the prospect of a wet track means favouring runners with race fitness. In that context nearly all runners engaged in this race have had at least two lead up runs however there are two that will be 2nd up into this race. There are 18 runners with 4 emergencies all hoping to get a start.

Tempo & Speed Map

The R2W Early Speed Map below predicts a Slow to Below Average tempo.

r2w speed map

Map Notes: Jockeys will endeavour to find their settling positions before the first turn out of the straight. Tim Clark will probably look to lead on Self Esteem. Daniel Griffin will most likely press forward on Zasorceress. Jason Collett can settle Imposing Lass with a nice trail. For those horses mapped midfield and worse there could easily be some change from the map positions with decisions to me made in respect of either going forward or back so as to avoid a wide trip.

Race Overview

The Official Handicap suggests Ambience has a dominant advantage over her rivals. Whilst the Hr rating tends to have significant predictive relevance in these races, James McDonald faces the dilemma of what to do given the difficult gate. The likelihood of a wide trip suggests that other factors could play a more important role in deciding this year’s contest. James McDonald and Hugh Bowman almost split the riding honours of Black Type races over the last 12 months with 73 wins between them. Each will need to call on all their skill to navigate their mounts from difficult gates.

Runner Analysis

r2w queensland oaks

Advantaged Horses

Imposing Lass: Jason Collett maps perfectly here. If he can show patience he will get his chance to carry on the Baker stables top recent record. Her fitness should help her in the ground but we don’t know for sure whether she will handle it. The Dam is Imposingly who is by Zabeel. The current price of $8+ looks enticing even after factoring in a likely wet track.

 

Neutral Horses

Falkenberg: Has been targeted for this race. Blake Shinn replaces Damian Browne which is a plus. I thought this horse was ridden poorly last time after being slow out, can improve.

Kebede: Maps quite well, place chance.

Ambience: Nice filly but has a terrible draw, will require a terrific ride to be winning here. Does like a soft track. Forgive last start.

Self Esteem: Leads and usually competitive.

 

Disadvantaged Horses

Provocative: Gets back from the draw assuming it gets a run here. Ratings profile suggests she would need to make significant improvement to feature.

Romantic Maid: Whilst she maps OK, this filly is another who would need to make significant improvement to feature as a winning chance.

Dawnie Perfect: Gets back which is problematical. Can be competitive on her best figures but looks poor value on current markets.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be two potential value bets in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Imposing Lass at $6.50+ (1.9 units)

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Falkenberg at $8+ (0.3 units)

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