Eagle Farm, Saturday 4th June 2016: Ratings 2 Win – Eagle Farm Cup Race Analysis

Posted: June 2, 2016

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Feature Race Analysis

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R3 Eagle Farm Cup 2200m GP2 WFA $250,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4, with a minimum of 60mm of forecast rain the track is more likely to be in the Heavy range, Rail is in the true position.

Much discussion has been had in the lead up to the resumption of racing at Eagle Farm. A rain affected, newly cambered, remodelled and resurfaced track could throw some surprise results. For form analysts the prospect of a wet track means favouring runners with race fitness. In that context all runners engaged in this race have had at least two lead up runs.

Tempo & Speed Map

The R2W Early Speed Map below predicts a Slow to Below Average tempo.

eagle farm cup

Map Notes: With approximately 200m before the turn out of the straight Darren Gauci will likely press forward on Adirondack and either find the fence or allow James McDonald on Volkstoknbarrell to lead and sit outside that horse.

Race Overview

Interestingly there are 4 jockeys engaged that are what we would deem more of a provincial standard rider. Between them they have contested 105 Black Type races over the last 12 months and won only 8. One of them, Josh Oliver is making his debut in Black Type company. There looks to be 4 winning chances being the first 4 in current early markets. The Official Handicap ratings have these horses in a different order.

Runner Analysis

Runners & Ratings

Advantaged Horses

Volkstoknbarrell: James McDonald is the premier Black Type rider of this field with 37 wins in the last 12 months. He is riding this horse for the first time and replaces Blake Shinn who will ride his main danger Maurus. The likely wet track will not pose any problem.

Maurus: Blake Shinn replaces Blake Spriggs which is a positive. Even though the horse will get back, he possesses a nice turn of foot that win him races. His record in slowly run races reads 3 wins and 4 seconds from 7 starts. Once again a wet track will not pose any problem.

 

Neutral Horses

Puccini: Darren Weir has a great record with horses over these trips. Puccini best runs have been on drier surfaces. His ratings profile whilst competitive suggest that he will need to lift to be considered a top winning chance. The only factor preventing this horse falling into the Disadvantaged category is that he will race just off the speed.

 

Disadvantaged Horses

Mighty Lucky: Chris O’Brien who has been riding this horse well is currently suspended. He is replaced by Tegan Harrison who may struggle to tactically get the best out of this horse. Another negative is that the likely tempo will not suit this horse.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be no potential value bets in the race. Betting Strategy only applies in this race according to the following prices.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Volkstoknbarrell at $2.90+ (1.4 units)

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Maurus at $4.20+ (1.3 units)

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