Feature Race Analysis
Axis is Australia’s leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings. www.ratings2win.com.au
R3 Eagle Farm Cup 2200m GP2 WFA $250,000
Currently rated Good 4, with a minimum of 60mm of forecast rain the track is more likely to be in the Heavy range, Rail is in the true position.
Much discussion has been had in the lead up to the resumption of racing at Eagle Farm. A rain affected, newly cambered, remodelled and resurfaced track could throw some surprise results. For form analysts the prospect of a wet track means favouring runners with race fitness. In that context all runners engaged in this race have had at least two lead up runs.
Tempo & Speed Map
The R2W Early Speed Map below predicts a Slow to Below Average tempo.
Map Notes: With approximately 200m before the turn out of the straight Darren Gauci will likely press forward on Adirondack and either find the fence or allow James McDonald on Volkstoknbarrell to lead and sit outside that horse.
Interestingly there are 4 jockeys engaged that are what we would deem more of a provincial standard rider. Between them they have contested 105 Black Type races over the last 12 months and won only 8. One of them, Josh Oliver is making his debut in Black Type company. There looks to be 4 winning chances being the first 4 in current early markets. The Official Handicap ratings have these horses in a different order.
Volkstoknbarrell: James McDonald is the premier Black Type rider of this field with 37 wins in the last 12 months. He is riding this horse for the first time and replaces Blake Shinn who will ride his main danger Maurus. The likely wet track will not pose any problem.
Maurus: Blake Shinn replaces Blake Spriggs which is a positive. Even though the horse will get back, he possesses a nice turn of foot that win him races. His record in slowly run races reads 3 wins and 4 seconds from 7 starts. Once again a wet track will not pose any problem.
Puccini: Darren Weir has a great record with horses over these trips. Puccini best runs have been on drier surfaces. His ratings profile whilst competitive suggest that he will need to lift to be considered a top winning chance. The only factor preventing this horse falling into the Disadvantaged category is that he will race just off the speed.
Mighty Lucky: Chris O’Brien who has been riding this horse well is currently suspended. He is replaced by Tegan Harrison who may struggle to tactically get the best out of this horse. Another negative is that the likely tempo will not suit this horse.
©ratings2win Pty Ltd 2016. Printed under licence to Betfair Pty Ltd. This document is for personal use only and must not be reproduced. This information is supplied “as is” and is to be used for general guidance only. Use of this information is entirely at your own risk. Neither Betfair nor ratings2win make any representations or warranties of any kind, including but not limited to, the accuracy, quality or completeness of the information contained herein. The Early Speed Map graphical format is provided to Betfair by Racing and Sports Pty Ltd. All intellectual property of the Early Speed Maps is owned by ratings2win Pty Ltd. Please gamble responsibly. For more information, visit Betfair’s Responsibility Gambling Policy.