Eagle Farm, Saturday 11th June 2016: Ratings 2 Win – Queensland Derby Race Analysis

Posted: June 9, 2016 at 10:15 am

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Feature Race Analysis

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R8 Queensland Derby 2400m GP1 3YO SW $600,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4, but could well be chopped up by race 8. Rail is in the 3m position

Much discussion has been had in the lead up to the resumption of racing at Eagle Farm. A newly cambered, remodelled and resurfaced track could throw some surprise results. For form analysts the prospect of a possible shifty or uneven surface means favouring runners with not only the right form but race fitness. In that context all runners engaged in this race have had at least three lead up runs however two horses namely Etymology has had a break of 28 days and Encosta Line a break of 35 days. The late market movements of this pair will tell us more on whether there is any concern in relation to fitness. There are 18 runners with 1 emergency.

Tempo & Speed Map

The R2W Early Speed Map below predicts a Moderate to Average tempo.

QLD Derby

Map Notes: Jockeys will endeavour to find their settling positions before the first turn out of the straight. Blake Shinn will probably lead on Mackintosh. Hugh Bowman will look to take up a position close to the lead. For those horses mapped off pace to midfield and worse there could easily be some change from the map positions with decisions to me made in respect of either going forward or back so as to avoid a wide trip.

Race Overview

Howard Be Thy Name enjoys a dominant advantage over her rivals if we accept the Official Handicap Rating. He is racing in top form and should have no issue with the 2400m. His map position though will require some luck and Brad Rawiller will be looking at add another black type success to his excellent record over the last 12 months. This year’s contest looks to offer some depth with the R2W computer suggesting a triplet of three equal top rated chances. Perhaps the best opportunity in this race lies outside win betting.

Runner Analysis

QLD Derby Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

None

 

Neutral Horses

1. Howard Be Thy Name: Enjoys a dominant 5-point advantage in the Official Handicap Rating which can often provide an edge in SW contests for 3yo. Gets back which is problematical.

7. Eagle Way: Ran on well in its lead up to this. Gets back which is problematical.

13. Eschiele: Will need luck from back in the field but will running on. On current prices represents some value if you are willing to take your chances on the map and how the track plays on the day.

 

Disadvantaged Horses

3. Mackintosh: We have always felt this gelding would not be able to run a strong 2400m. Has been gifted the last two wins when the beneficiary of slow early pace. Enjoys the best map advantage of the market favoured runners but we feel this is a good opportunity to oppose the current second favourite

 

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be one potential value bet in the race.

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Mackintosh up to $6.00+ (lay liability exposure up to 5% of betting banks)

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