Eagle Farm, Saturday 11th June 2016: Ratings 2 Win – Brisbane Cup Race Analysis

Posted: June 9, 2016

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Feature Race Analysis

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R6 Brisbane Cup 2400m GP2 HCP $300,000

Track

Currently rated Good 4, but could well be chopped up by Race 6. Rail is in the 3m position.

Much discussion has been had in the lead up to the resumption of racing at Eagle Farm. A newly cambered, remodelled and resurfaced track could throw some surprise results. For form analysts the prospect of a possible shifty or uneven surface means favouring runners with not only the right form but race fitness. In that context all runners engaged in this race save for Sir John Hawkwood who is off a 28-day break have had at least two lead up runs. I am not concerned with the fitness level of Sir John Hawkwood as he is proven when his runs are spaced. There are 12 runners.

Tempo & Speed Map

The R2W Early Speed Map below predicts a Slow to Moderate tempo.

Brisbane Cup Speed Map

Map Notes: Ecuador looks to get an easy lead. Rudy can position closer. Puccini box seats. Brad Rawiller may need to make a decision early on Real Love.

Race Overview

Adam Hyeronimus has been rating Ecuador well in winning its last two. Gets his chance to add another black type win to take his tally to three wins from five rides over the last 12 months. David Vandyke who impresses me as a trainer has two runners engaged with one of them a real live chance.

Runner Analysis

Brisbane Cup Runner Analysis

Advantaged Horses

1. Ecudor: Enjoys being able to dictate here in a slow to moderate tempo. Will be in this for a long way.

5. Sir John Hawkwood: Trained by David Vandyke. All three runs since resuming from a spell on 12/3 have been at 2000m which is an ideal grounding for this 2400m event.

 

Neutral Horses

6. Puccini: Maps well but will have to lift his ratings to a new level to be winning here. Not won since January 2015 in New Zealand.

3. Real Love: Consistent mare who has drawn a little awkwardly here and will need some luck to get a spot early. Been up since October 2015.

 

Disadvantaged Horses

8. Benzini: Ran on fair at his Queensland debut, will need to improve and gets back midfield or worse on the fence. Local jockeys will not be doing Rosie Myers any favours.

 

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be two potential value bets in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Sir John Hawkwood at $5.50+ for 1.4 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Ecuador at $6+ for 0.3 units

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