Eagle Farm, Saturday 11th June 2016: The Betfair Insider – QTC Cup

Posted: June 9, 2016 at 12:19 pm

Current Track Rating: Good 4

Rail: +3m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 10th – Max 25°C. Sunny

Saturday 11th – Max 23°C. Partly cloudy.

 

R5 QTC Cup Group 2 1300m Quality

Speed Map

QTC Cup Insider speed map

Race Profile

  • 6 of the last 10 winners have been 4yo’s
  • 5 of 10 SP favourites have won the race
  • The past 3 winners of this race have been 4 weeks or more between runs
  • Falkirk was the last 3yo Colt to win in 2004 with 53.5kg

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Good

1st Ball of Muscle – BR 1 56.5kg SP $3.30 – 3rd up, 5 weeks, 2nd Victory Stakes Group 2 1200m Gold Coast

2nd That’s A Good Idea – BR 8 57.5kg SP $3.70 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st Ortensia Stakes LR 1150m Scone

3rd Kuro – BR 2 57kg SP $3.70 – 5th up, 3 weeks, 1st Mick Dittman Stakes LR 1200m Doomben

Good

1st Sacred Star – BR 4 54.5kg SP $5.50 – 1st up, 13 weeks, 2nd NRM Sprint Group 1 1400m Te Rapa

2nd Masthead – BR 8 53kg S P$7 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 4th Luskin Star LR 1300m Scone

3rd Bennetta – BR 5 53kg SP $5.50 – 3rd up, 4 weeks, 6th All Aged Stakes Group 1 1400m Randwick

Soft

1st Galah – BR 10 53kg SP $5.50 – 2nd up, 4 weeks, 8th The Goodwood Group 1 1200m Morphettville

2nd Conservatorium – BR 14 56.5kg SP $17 – 3rd up, 4 weeks, 8th The Goodwood Group 1 1200m Morphettville

3rd Griffon – BR 2 53kg SP $11 – 3rd up, 1 week, 4th Chief De Beers LR 1110m Doomben

Celtic Dancer – BR 1 54.5kg SP $11   – 6th up, 2 weeks, 6th BRC Sprint Group 3 1350m Doomben

Varenna Miss – BR 15 53.5kg SP $13 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st 2MW Hcp 1200m Doomben

Major Players 

1. Stratum Star: The ‘forgive a horse a bad run’ theory comes into play with Stratum Star on Saturday. If you excuse his run in the BTC Cup then Stratum Star would be hard to beat. He’s the ‘class runner’ of the field competing at the highest level on nine occasions. He’s weighted up to his best but has the ratings to bounce back.

2. Target In Sight: He’s fourth up with the successful 4 weeks (or more) between runs which profiles well for this race. He was an eye catcher in the BTC Cup when hitting the line hard behind Malaguerra and finishing much more powerfully than the likes of Dothraki, Japonisme and Fell Swoop. None of the aforementioned horses will line up in this race and for that reason alone he must be the deserved favourite. His main concern will be the tricky inside gate but looks top pick.

4. Snippets Land: This 5YO gelding is absolutely flying this prep. He won the BRC Sprint in good time, handles the wet but goes a length or two better on the dry. With a good fitness base under his belt he looks to be a great chance after savaging the line in at his latest run. Drawn well.

5. Steel Zip: Runs well first up having been placed on 5 out of 6 occasions. He’s had three trials leading into this has the ability to be dangerous at a massive price.

11. Spill The Beans: He’s an honest 3YO on speed type but has been racing against his own age and I’d be prepared to risk him on Saturday. He looks well under the odds to me.

15. Miss Cover Girl: Another runner that can drop big numbers when the conditions are in her favour and she will get the chance to show her worth on Saturday. She’s had two runs under her belt this campaign with excuses on both occasions. What I like best is that she is trained at the track and should go to a new career peak on Saturday.

16. Trubia: An improving horse who will get the chance to go to new heights here. To be fair he had a perfect run in the BRC Sprint and was no match for Snippets land late, however he has a touch more improvement heading into this race only being fourth up. The draw looks poor on paper but should the inside be off then it could actually be an advantage.

 

Betting Strategy

This will be one of the most competitive QTC Cup’s we’ve seen in years and it should favour those horse with the ability to handle a truly run 1300m.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Target In Sight for 3 units at $6 or more.

Laying on Betfair LAY (PLACE) Spill The Beans to win 10 units @ $3 or less

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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