Doomben, Saturday 28th May 2016: The Betfair Insider – Doomben 10,000

Posted: May 26, 2016

Current Track Rating: Good

Rail: +4m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 27th – Max 27°C. Possible early shower.

Saturday 28th – Max 24°C. Sunny.

 

R7 Doomben 10,000 Group 1 1350m WFA

Speed Map

doomben 10000

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners have 4 weeks or more between runs
  • 1 of past 5 winners have won from barrier 8 or wider
  • 8 of past 10 winners have come via the All Ages Stakes or BTC Cup
  • 3 of past 5 winners have had 3 weeks or more between runs
  • 2 of past 10 winners have been 3YO’s; 2013 Epaulette (C) & 2012 Sea Siren (F)

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Good 4, Rail +3m

1st Boban – BR 7 59kg SP $17 – 1st up, 10 weeks, 14th Chipping Norton Stakes Group 1 1600m Warwick Farm

2nd Charlie Boy – BR 1 59kg SP $18 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 1st BRC Sprint Group 3 1350m Doomben

3rd Generalife – BR 5 59kg SP $7.50 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 5th All Aged Stakes Group 1 1400m Randwick

Good 3, Rail +4m

1st Spirit Of Boom – BR 2 59kg SP $4.80 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 2nd BTC Cup Group 1 1200m Doomben

2nd Temple Of Boom – BR 4 59kg SP $26 – 6th up, 2 weeks, 4th BTC Cup Group 1 1200m Doomben

3rd Buffering – BR 8 59kg SP $4.80 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 4th BTC Cup Group 1 1200m Doomben

Good 4, Rail +4m

1st Epaulette – BR 4 57kg SP $6 – 3rd up, 4 weeks, 6th All Aged Stakes Group 1 1400m Randwick

2nd Sea Siren – BR 9 57kg SP $17– 4th up, 2 weeks, 8th BTC Cup Group 1 1200m Doomben

3rd Buffering – BR 12 59kg SP $7 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 3rd BTC Cup Group 1 1200m Doomben

Sea Siren – BR 7 55kg SP $4.20   – 2nd up ,2 weeks, 1st BTC Cup Group 1 1350m Doomben

Beaded – BR 10 53kg SP $11 – 3rd up, 7 weeks, 2nd Morphettville Sprint Group 1 1200m Morphettville

Major Players 

1. Delectation: He was the eye catcher in the BTC Cup. After being vetted at the start he was slowly away, but rattled home to record the fastest last 400m splits beaten only 2.4 lengths behind eventual winner Malaguerra. He’s yet to perform well over 1350m but he looks well placed under the Weight-For-Age conditions of the race. If he can see daylight in the home straight look for him to figure late.

2. Fell Swoop: Another that comes from the BTC Cup where he was trapped wide and had little luck but stuck on gamely to be beaten only 1.6 lengths. He’s been up for a while now and steps up to the 1350m which might explain why early odds makers have him at $6.00+ on the exchange. He gets Zac Purton aboard and Barrier 1 mapping in behind the leader which is enough to suggest that he’ll be heavily backed on race day.

3. Dothraki: Loomed up as the winner of the BTC Cup before Malaguerra fought back on the line. That was a peak ratings performance for Dothraki and the additional 150m of the Doomben 10,000 could find him out.

4. Hooked: Is the value runner of the field. He hasn’t been seen for over 200 days but has trialled up three times in preparation for this race. He’s very well suited at WFA and has performed at this level despite his best ratings coming over the mile.  On my numbers, his first-up performances are some of his best and although the race shape is not quite suitable he gets his chance to win his first Group One as an entire. This is grand final day!

6. Music Magnate: A progressive horse from the in-form Baker yard, Music Magnate makes his first appearance at WFA. He will be much better suited at handicap conditions and I’m prepared to look past him with the Stradbroke a better fit.

7. Azkadellia: She’s the dominate favourite for this race and has the right numbers on the board to be deserved of that. Her past three performances at Group 1 level against the likes of Peeping, Winx and eventually winning the Queen of the Turf at Randwick all put her three lengths ahead of this field. However, this will be her toughest test as she takes on the boys at WFA level back in distance at Doomben with the rail out 4m. She’ll need plenty to go right and will be better suited at Eagle Farm.       

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Fell Swoop – 2 units at $5 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Hooked – 1 units at $17 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) Hooked – 2 units

 

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider