Doomben, Saturday 21st May 2016: The Betfair Insider – Doomben Cup

Posted: May 19, 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 3

Rail: +2m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 20th – Max 20°C. Sunny with light winds.

Saturday 21st – Max 27°C. Sunny with light winds.

 

R7 Doomben Cup 2000m Group 1

Speed Map

doomben cup

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners have used Hollindale Stakes as their lead up run
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites
  • 5 of past 5 winners have been 3rd up or deeper into their preparation
  • 3 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 5 or closer
  • 1 of past 5 winners has been a Mare (2014 Streama)

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Soft 5, True

1st – Pornichet – BR 4 59kg $3.50 fav – 6th up, 1 week 1st Toowoomba Cup Listed 2150m Toowoomba

2nd – Weary (FR) – BR 8 59kg $19 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 8th All Aged Stakes G1 1400m

3rd – I’m Imposing – BR  6 59kg $11 – 2nd up (4 wk freshen), 2 weeks 7th Hollindale Stks G2 1800m Gold Coast

Good 4, Rail +2m

1st – Streama – BR 8 57kg SP EQ fav $4.20 – 7th up, 2 weeks 1st Hollindale Stakes G2 1800m Gold Coast

2nd – Leebaz – BR 2 59kg SP $7 – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st Hawkesbury Cup G3 1600m Hawkesbury

3rd – Junoob – BR 3 59kg SP $4.20 EQ fav – 2nd up (4wk freshen), 2wks 4th Hollindale Stks G2 1800m G Coast

Good 4, Rail +1.5 900-375m (True Remainder)

1st – Beaten up – BR 1 59kg SP $9 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd Rowley Mile Listed 1600m Hawkesbury

2nd – Foreteller – BR 3 59kg SP $4 fav – 2nd up (4wk freshen),2 wks 2nd Hollindale Stakes G2 1800m Gold Coast

3rd – Secret Admirer – BR 11 57kg $15 – 5th up, 3 weeks 5th Queen Elizabeth G1 2000m Randwick

Mawingo – BR 5 59kg SP $8 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd Hollindale Stakes G2 1800m Gold Coast

Scenic Shot – BR 13 59kg SP $12 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 5th Hollindale Stakes G2 1800m Gold Coast

Major Players 

1.Volkstok’n’barrel (NZ): Excellent lead up in the Hollindale Stakes going back off a wide draw then hitting the line hard beaten only 2.5 lengths third when the winner and runner up had every favour in running. His third up winning strike rate is at 75% and he’s won 66% of the time at 2000m.

I thought he would measure up in last year’s Cox Plate after his performances in the Autumn of 2015, but he just never came up in the spring. I’d prefer Blake Shinn to hold a forward position on settling, but on my map he’s most likely to be shuffled back with the likelihood of an early speed battle with on-speed runners drawn wide.

2.Hauraki: Is the early favourite on the exchange and loomed up to win the Hollindale Stakes only to peak on his run in the final 100m. His final 200m split was soft so I’m prepared to say he’ll improve on that performance, which he needs to. Maps to get every favour in running drawn barrier one and if he doesn’t win here the jury is definitely out on his future at Group One level. D-Day!

3.Our Ivanhowe: His best ratings say he’s a winning chance but there’s obvious hoof issues with the horse. He trialled OK on a heavy track over 1550m but comes here to far against the past winner’s profile to entertain seriously at a single figure quote. Betting will tell the story. Watch.

5.It’s Somewhat: Not sure why Damian Brown went back on this runner last start? Damian is one of the best front riding jockeys on the planet and this horses usual racing pattern is up and on the speed. I expect him to position outside the leader this time and prove hard to run down.

8. Spiritjim (FR): Import who impressed first up when taken back off an inside draw in the Hollindale Stakes beaten 4 lengths after tracking widest in the home turn. He had enough early speed to settle much closer than he did that day. He now has another inside draw but with master tactician Hugh Bowman engaged.

Expect him to track Hauraki into the race. This runner contested last years L’Arc Triomphe which speaks volumes of his potential. If Waller has found the key to him he’s the runner who is most likely to jump out of the ground.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Volkstok’n’barrel – 1.5 units at $5 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Spirtjim – 1.5 units at $7 or more

 

 

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider