Doomben, Saturday 14th May 2016: The Betfair Insider – BTC Cup

Posted: May 12, 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 3

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 13th – Max 27, Sunny. Light winds

Saturday 14th – Max 27 Sunny. Light winds

 

R7 BTC Cup 1200m Group 1

Speed Map

BTC Cup

Race Profile

  • 5 of past 5 winners have started no wider than barrier 5
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been Sydney trained horse.
  • 1 of past 5 winners have been SP favourites
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been Mares
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been 1st up or off a Freshen up from Sydney

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Good 3, True

1st – Hot Snitzel – BR 2 58.5kg SP $26 – 4th up, 3rd St Kingdom G3 1200m Rosehill

2nd – Knoydart- BR 7 58.5kg SP $17 – 2nd up, 4th Victory Stakes G2 1200m Gold Coast

3rd – Our Boy Malachi – BR 6 58.5kg SP 3.10 fav – 2nd up, 1st Hall Mark Stakes G3 1200m Gold Coast

Good 3, True

1st – Famous Seamus – BR 4, 58.5kg, SP $21 – 5th up, 5th Victory Stakes G2 1200m E Farm

2nd – Spirit Of Boom – BR 6, 58.5kg, SP $5.5 – 2nd up, 2nd Victory Stakes G2 1200m E Farm

3rd – Buffering – BR 3, 58.5kg, SP $1.75 fav – 4 wk Freshen, 3rd TJ Smith G1 1200m Randwick

2013 – Heavy 9, True

1st – Your Song – BR 5, 57kg, SP $12 – 1st up, 27 weeks (3 x Trials) Latest 1050m Randwick

2nd – Rain Affair – BR 2, 58.5kg, SP $4 – 4th up, 2nd All Aged G1 1400m Randwick

3rd – Better Than Ready – BR 8, 57kg, SP $10 – 2nd, 6 week Freshen, Listed 1000m E Farm

Sea Siren – BR 5, 55kg, SP $7.5 – 1st up, 3rd 1050m Trial Randwick

Black Caviar – BR 4, 56.5kg, SP $1.14 – 5wk Freshen, 1st TJ Smith G1 1200m Randwick

Major Players 

1.Delectation: He’s in form with two recent trial wins off the back off a luckless run in the G1 TJ Smith where he didn’t get every opportunity to win the race. Expect him to be snagged back off a wide draw and descend late in that typical Doomben blanket finish. He looks a better place betting proposition based on the race profile.

2.Fell Swoop: Bulletproof on pacer who won the G2 Victory Stakes at his latest outing this track and trip. He proved he could sit up and on the speed in the G1 TJ Smith and still find the line strongly. It was only Chautauqua that could reel him in which proves how good this runner is. He’s a horse capable of winning against the profile based on his TJ Smith performance. I suspect he will drift off the back of a wide draw and couldn’t back him at $4.40 in early markets.

4. Dothraki: Races best on Good rated tracks so expect him to thrive here in Queensland. His run in the TJ Smith was honest without looking a major threat to the winner and runner up (Fell Swoop). He has the ratings capable of winning this and maps to perfection behind the speed. He fits the profile of the winner coming here off a trial and freshen up. The stable is world class at peaking their horses for Group 1 events, Blake Shinn rides Doomben well making him over-priced in the early market at $13.

6.Artlee: Needs to produce a run close to his career PB to win this event and the race shape sets up nicely for him from Barrier 4. He’s an improving galloper but has come up well under the odds at single figure odds in early betting. Expect $15+ to be offered on the Exchange.

8. Malaguerra: We didn’t see the best of him in the G1 All Aged stakes last start over 1400m on a Soft 5. He pulled up with cuts on both fore legs and also to his tongue. It’s hard to gauge if the failure were the injuries, state of track or simply an off day. Regardless he’s a Group 1 winning horse in the making based on his ability to absorb strong early speed and accelerate off that tempo to record fast overall time. He sits well within the winner’s profile but needs to find cover off the draw, his jockey Glen Colless needs to find form.

11. Japonisme: Impossible not to like this horse. He’s the ultimate professional and has proven his versatility to lead or take a sit and be a winning chance in almost every race he contests. The tougher it gets the better this bloke is. With good speed drawn outside him he can comfortably park two or three pairs back on the fence which suits the profile of past winners and importantly Glyn Schofield won’t panic in that situation. He’s a very classy 3yo Gelding that will be difficult to hold out late.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Dothraki – 1.5 units at $10 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Japonisme – 3.5 units at $4 or more

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider