Devonport Ratings: August 13th 2017

Track & Weather 

Forecast: 13c with a slight chance of a shower on Sunday, but most likely after the meeting.

Rail:  True

Expected going: Synthetic

Pattern: Those on lead or just off are typically best suited.

R1 | 1350m | 12:00pm

Pace & Map: Even – expect Wanaea (1) and Aint The Whiskey (3) to control the race up front.

Comment: Lord Farquaad’s form and ratings over this track and distance in recent starts are clearly better than his opposition here. His major problem has been getting well back in the field, but with just four runners here he’ll sit just off the lead.

Runner  Rated Price
1. Vandermeer  $3.50
2. Lord Farquaad  $1.70
4. Wanaea  $12.00
6. Aint The Whisky  $21.00

Betting Strategy 

Back on Betfair BACK – Lord Farquaad

R2 | 1350| 12:35pm

Pace & Map: Even – Not a lot of speed here. Irish Jeff (7) and Hint of Moonlight (9) will perhaps look to work across, while Skip (1) should look to hold a forward position up to 1350m.

Comment: This is a very competitive race with a number of possible winners. Irish Jeff made a massive improvement last start when ridden up on the lead, running second to Purple Rider, which is good form for this race. There’s a big query that he was 50/1 that day and his prior form is terrible, but he strikes another evenly run race that gives him the chance to get up on the lead again.

Runner  Rated Price
1. Irish Jeff  $4.60
2. Powerful Prospect  $31.00
3. Roger Verbal Kint  $18.00
4. Sebring Star  $9.00
5. Skip  $26.00
6. Hint Of Moonlight  $5.50
7. Kamikaze Force  $6.50
8. Lucky Im Here  $4.80
9. Oceania Hope  $81.00

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Irish Jeff

R3 | 1880| 1:10pm

Pace & Map: Even – Becerikli (4) looks most likely to take it up with a few behind that can be prominent. One positions are established there is potential for the pace to slow through the middle stages.

Comment: Another Brother has run second in five starts this campaign so far, that latest behind White Hawk over this track and distance which is a very solid form line. He must rate clearly the one to beat, but his lack of early speed is a concern, especially in this race which doesn’t seem to have a lot of pressure up front. The second best chance Miss Bluegrass is in a similar situation, likely to be well back from a wide draw.

Runner  Rated Price
1. Becerikli  $8.00
2. Poachers Son  $101.00
3. Special Shot  $26.00
4. Another Brother  $2.40
5. Berbent  $201.00
6. British  $9.00
7. Grand Faith  $51.00
8. Kingsclere  $11.00
9. Miss Bluegrass  $5.50

Betting Strategy

Prefer to pass

R4 | 1150| 1:45pm

Pace & Map: Even to Genuine – Monobrow (6) should work forward and looks the likely leader. There’s plenty of other mid to wide drawn horses that could try their luck going forward and the extent to which they do will largely dictate the eventual pace / pressure.

Comment: Mookcat is having her first start in Tasmania here, formerly trained in Victoria. Her last two runs on the Geelong Synthetic track returned ratings that can certainly win this race, it’s just a matter of how ready she is. The market will provide a good lead. Monobrow is the clear danger off a solid run / rating over this track and distance last start.

Runner  Rated Price
1. Belrock Boy  $201.00
2. One Before You Go  $51.00
3. Sudden Shock  $7.50
5. Miss Chat A Lot  $201.00
6. Monobrow  $3.30
7. Mookcat  $3.00
8. Maleluji  $18.00
9. The Golden Jet  $101.00
10. Bailees Words  $201.00
11. Breathtaking  $11.00
12. Look At This  $18.00

Betting Strategy

Mookcat – providing she’s at least solid in the market (i.e. not a clear drifter.)

R5 | 1150m | 2:20pm

Pace & Map: Even to Genuine – Meteor Strike (4) and Nielson (7) have good speed, so despite the small field, they may roll along in front here setting up a decent speed.

Comment: Nielson is the class runner of this race that brings clearly the best recent form / ratings into this race, he has a terrific record at this track and will race right up near the lead.

Runner  Rated Price
1. Nielson  $1.60
2. Gee Gees Blondie  $9.00
3. Time Commands  $16.00
4. Toorak Affair  $21.00
5. Meteor Strike  $11.00
6. Charlemagnes Girl  $31.00
7. Crystal Flame  $26.00

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Nielson

R6 | 1150m | 2:55pm

Pace & Map: Genuine – Expect Amaword (4) to lead early with Duperrey (7) working forward to sit on his outside.

Comment: An interesting race here featuring somewhat of a boom horse in Duperrey who has won his only two starts so far at prices of $1.30 and $1.50 last start. This race is much harder than the opposition he faced last Saturday though, so I couldn’t possibly come into a short price on him. I much prefer Willby Rules who was good first up when just beaten in a race that returned strong figures and he gets a big positive jockey change here from the 4kg claimer to J Maskiell.

Runner Rated Price
1. Duperrey  $3.80
2. Tammany Hall  $8.00
3. Amaword  $4.20
4. Willby Rules  $3.30
5. Shockwave Miss  $26.00
6. Anyways Rosie  $67.00
7. Korn Broke  $51.00
8. Axion  $51.00

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Willby Rules

R7 | 1650m | 3:30pm

Pace & Map: Moderate to Below Average – Dalehill (2) should be positive early, while Jerrazz (5) should also press forward. There doesn’t look any other notable speed in this race, so the pace could well and truly slow through the middle stages.

Comment: A very difficult race. Dalehill recent ratings are right in the competitive zone for this and she looks to get a soft time up on the lead. Cols Hero is racing in good form with the ratings to win, but has to stretch out to the 1650m. Reann’s Diamond certainly has the figures to win this race, but lacks early speed and is likely to be well back in the field here.

Runner  Rated Price
1. Jerrazz  $7.50
2. Reanns Diamond  $4.80
3. Cols Hero  $4.20
4. Kompressor  $17.00
6. Into The Night  $51.00
7. Dalehill  $3.80
8. Island Tiger  $34.00
9. Toakio Tower  $17.00

Betting Strategy

Prefer to pass – if you must bet, check the market on Dalehill and play something small if she’s a good value price.

R8 | 1650| 4:05pm

Pace & Map: Genuine – potential speed is drawn middle to wide here with Sound Bar (6), Secrets She Has (7) and The Master Speed (8) all capable of pressing forward.

Comment: A very competitive race with a stack of possible winners, depending on who can get the right run and find their best on the day. Siorca was good first up behind Killin Falls and looks an obvious improver stepping up to a more suitable 1650m second up from a spell. That’s enough to put him narrowly on top here, but his assessed price is indicative of how open the race is.

Runner  Rated Price
1. Powercharged  $11.00
2. Geegees Baritone  $14.00
3. Sound Bar  $13.00
4. Siorca  $5.00
5. Killin Falls  $6.50
6. Magnasa  $10.00
7. The Master Speed  $10.00
8. Secrets She Has  $6.50
9. Trusted Warrior  $17.00

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Siorca if a good value price.

R9 | 1350| 4:40pm

Pace & Map: Moderate to below average – Silver Reset (1) looks likely to hold the lead from barrier 1 with not a great deal of obvious pressure. No doubt one or two from out wide will chance their hand and press forward, but the pace is still likely to be below average at best.

Comment: Bedrock Dreams ran well last start over 1150m and has the potential to make improvement stepping up to 1350m here, especially with her peak rating coming over 1400m in Victoria. Tactics from the wide draw will be critical. The map looks right for her to press forward and if she finds a good position, expect her to be very hard to beat. Khatun is flying, but tends to get back, so the lack of pace is a risk here.

Runner  Rated Price
1. Private Baldrick  $21.00
2. Burma  $26.00
3. Khatun  $3.80
4. Leconte  $8.00
5. Bedrock Dreams  $3.20
6. Cheers Chappy  $12.00
7. Rougeau  $10.00
8. Black Hills  $61.00
9. Silver Reset  $201.00

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Bedrock Dreams

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