Crown Oaks Day Promotions

Posted: November 5, 2015

For the savvy Betfair punters out there, showcased below are selected promotions available across Crown Oaks Day and details on how to use them to your advantage.*

‘Place a fixed odds win bet Races 1 – 5 at Flemington, and if your first bet in any of these races wins – get 50% extra on top’

To take advantage of this opportunity, there are a number of different betting approaches you can take that range from bets that have no risk to bets that have little risk or bets that have maximum reward for a slightly larger risk.

Maximum Profit
Large potential win while having a small risk.
Note – you must select the winning horse to profit.

Minimum Risk
Maximum potential win possible while having a loss of \$0.
Note – you must select the winning horse to profit.

Even Profit Regardless of Result
Winning position no matter what the result of the race.
Note – your horse can win or lose, but either way you win.

MAXIMUM PROFIT EXAMPLE – GUCCI STAKES RACE 2 NO. 3 – LIBRAN

A)   Place a \$50 bet on Libran at \$10.00 with Ladbrokes (Win Market).

B)   Place a \$45.70 Lay bet on Libran at \$11.00 with Betfair (Win Market).

If Libran wins:

A)   \$450 profit + \$225 profit from 50% on winnings = \$675 profit

B)   \$457.00 loss

Result: \$218.00 profit

If Libran loses:

A)   \$50 loss

B)   \$42.96 profit (\$45.70 Lay profit minus \$2.74 with 6% Exchange commission)

Result: \$7.04 loss

The overall result from this bet can be a \$218.00 profit, with having only risked \$7.04 in the event Libran loses the race. Through this method of betting, we are able to effectively create odds for Libran to win of \$31.97, well over the \$10.00 market price of the horse.

CALCULATIONS EXPLAINED

How to calculate the Lay amount for maximum reward:

If the Back and Lay prices have changed. Simply follow the below steps to determine your new Lay amount. These steps are based on the odds available in the above example.

Lay Stake = (Back Stake + Winnings) / (Lay Odds – Commission)
= (\$50 + [(\$50 x \$10) – \$50)] / (\$11.00 – 0.06)
= \$500 / \$10.94
= \$45.70

MINIMUM RISK EXAMPLE – GUCCI STAKES RACE 2 NO. 3 – LIBRAN

A)   Place a \$50 bet on Libran at \$10.00 with Ladbrokes (Win Market).

B)   Place a \$53.19 Lay bet on Libran at \$11.00 with Betfair (Win Market).

If Libran wins:

A)   \$450 profit + \$225 profit from 50% on winnings = \$675 profit

B)   \$531.90 loss

Result: \$143.10 profit

If Libran loses:

A)   \$50 loss

B)   \$50 profit (\$53.19 Lay profit minus \$3.19 with 6% Exchange commission)

Result: \$0 profit

CALCULATIONS EXPLAINED

With the Minimum Risk betting approach, the fundamental concept is that you cover your back bet potential loss with a lay bet that gives you the opportunity to make a large win but have a \$0 loss.

In outlaying \$50 with Ladbrokes, if the horse you selected loses you will lose \$50. As a result, you want to Lay the calculated amount on that horse so that when it loses, you profit \$50 after the Betfair commission resulting in a net loss of \$0.

How to calculate the Lay amount for minimum risk:

Lay Profit must be equal to \$50

Lay Stake = Back Stake  / (1 – Commission)
= \$50 / (1 – 0.06)
= \$50 / 0.94
= \$53.19

EVEN PROFIT REGARDLESS OF RESULT – GUCCI STAKES RACE 2 NO. 3 – LIBRAN

A)   Place a \$50 bet on Libran at \$10.00 with Ladbrokes (Win Market).

B)   Place a \$66.27 Lay bet on Libran at \$11.00 with Betfair (Win Market).

If Libran wins:

A)   \$450 profit + \$225 profit from 50% on winnings = \$675 profit

B)   \$662.70 loss

Result: \$12.30 profit

If Libran loses:

A)   \$50 loss

B)   \$62.29 profit (\$66.27 Lay profit minus \$3.98 with 6% Exchange commission)

Result: \$12.29 profit

CALCULATIONS EXPLAINED

The implied odds created from the 50% bonus promotion creates an arbitrage situation resulting in the opportunity to profit regardless of the outcome of the event.

The Implied odds from this betting situation are as follows:

Back Bet Profit

= (Back Stake x Back Odds) – Back Stake) + 50% bonus on winnings
= (\$50 x \$10) – \$50) + 50% bonus on winnings
= \$450 + (\$450 x 0.5)
= \$450 + \$225
= \$675

As such, this profit creates the following Implied Odds:

For a \$50 stake, the return on the bet is \$675
= (Winnings + Stake) / Stake
= \$675 + \$50 / \$50
= \$14.50 implied odds

Calculated Lay Amount

Lay Stake
= (Back Stake + [ (Back Stake x Implied Odds) – Back Stake] ) / (Lay Odds – Commission)
= (\$50 + [(\$50 x \$14.50) – \$50)] / (\$11.00 – 0.06)
= \$725 / \$10.94
= \$66.27

TERMS & CONDITIONS

• Promotion applies to Races 1 – 5 of Crown Oaks Day Races – Thursday 5th November
• 50% extra payout is only awarded for your first winning bet of the day
• Only the first bet placed in each race will be eligible for 50% bonus payout
• Only Fixed odds win bets are eligible for the promotion
• Max \$50 bet per race
• Bet must be placed on Thursday 5th November to be eligible

For additional terms and conditions and further details visit their promotions page.

How to approach this promotion?

Minimum Risk Strategy
Adopt the Minimum Risk strategy for each race 1 through to 5 until you find a winner. This method if executed correctly, will give you 5 opportunities to profit by selecting a winner without having any financial exposure.

Even Profit Strategy
Adopt the Even Profit strategy and attempt to select runners that are unlikely to win. If each race you can manage to get through without selecting a winner, you will make a profit. While these profits will not be as large as the potential profit that can result from the other two strategies, this method if executed correctly will lock in a profit if executed correctly where the other strategies will not.

William Hill & Tom Waterhouse Money Back Promotion

‘If your horse runs 2nd or 3rd in races 1 to 4 at Flemington this Thursday 5th November – Get Your Money Back up to \$25.’

To take advantage of this promotion you can adopt the betting approach below:

Maximum Profit
Large potential win while having a small risk.
Note – you must select the horse that finishes 2nd or 3rd.

MAXIMUM PROFIT EXAMPLE – SWISSE WELLNESS RACE 2 NO. 9 BERISHA

A)   Place a \$25 bet on Berisha at \$3.50 with William Hill (Win Market).

B)   Place a \$22.21 Lay bet on Berisha at \$4.00 with Betfair (Win Market).

If Berisha finishes 2ndor 3rd:

A)   \$0 position (\$25 stake refunded due to finishing position)

B)   \$20.88 profit (\$22.21 lay profit minus \$1.33 with 6% exchange commission)

Result: \$20.88 profit

If
Berisha wins the race or finishes 4th or further back:

A)   \$25 loss

B)   \$20.88 profit (\$22.21 lay profit minus \$1.33 with 6% exchange commission)

Result: -\$4.12 loss

CALCULATIONS EXPLAINED

How to calculate Lay amount for maximum reward:

If the Back and Lay prices have changed. Simply follow the below steps to determine your new Lay amount. These steps are based on the odds available in the example above.

Lay Stake  = (Back Stake + Winnings) / (Lay Odds – Commission)
= (\$25 + [(\$25 x \$3.5) – \$25)] / (\$4.00 – 0.06)
= \$87.50 / \$3.94
= \$22.21

TERMS & CONDITIONS

• Available for the Races 1-4 at Flemington Thursday 5th November
• Applies to your first Fixed Odds Win bet on the race.
• Max \$25 bet refund
• Bet must be placed on Thursday 5th November to be eligible
• Excludes residents on WA

For additional terms and conditions and further details visit their promotions page below.

William Hill promotion page

Tom Waterhouse promotion page

Until next time,

The Promo Arber.

Related Markets

Flemington Race 2 Market

Related Articles

Introduction into Promotional Arbitrage

*This information is general in nature. Betfair does not warrant the accuracy of any promotional information of odds. This article does not constitute betting advice. Customers should review the terms and conditions of promotions to determine their eligibility.