Champion Bets: Riccarton, Saturday 12th November 2016

Posted: November 11, 2016

Champion_Bets

Weather Forecast: www.metservice.com

Friday 11th – Max 15, Rain becoming persistent late afternoon. Possible 18mm rain.

Saturday 12th – Max 12, Rain easing to a few showers in the morning before clearly slightly.

 

R7 1000 Guineas G1 3YO SW 1600m

Speed Map

 

Tempo: Solid

Major Players 

1. La Diosa: The best filly in ‘the south’ and has impressed at her last two starts. The possibility of a slow track is a big concern despite her winning on dead rated surfaces. The northern raiders look to have a class edge.

2. Astara: Won well last time after a charmed run in transit and looks to have a good foundation stepping up to the mile. Maps well again and likely to be in the finish.

3. Mystery Show: Hard to knock her last start third from Barrier 12 when dropping out well back. She hit the hard indicating that a step up to 1600m will suit.

5. Glass Slipper: Also coming from the Soliloquy Stakes where she didn’t have the clearest passage home. Looks ready to peak here and can handle the soft.

7. Bella Gioia: Disappointing last start on a Good rated track in the Sarten Memorial. Deserves another chance back to her own sex and can handle the soft.

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) La Diosa for 10 units at $4.00 or less.

R9 N.Z Cup G3 3200m

Speed Map

*Not Available

 

Tempo: Genuine

Major Players 

1. Maygrove: Tough northern stayer that didn’t handle the dry surface last start. His best is good enough for Murray Baker to have taken to Australia in the past and his pedigree suggest 3200m is within reach.

3. Pump Up The volume: Another tough old grinding stayer. He loves the wet and has won at 3200m. He’s a last start winner and gets some weight relief here.

4. Nymph Monte: Looks to have most of this field covered on his win in the Metropolitan Trophy over 2500m at Riccarton last week. And although he’s a winner on the slow will last week’s form measure up if the rain comes? At the price he’s a risk for mine with a ‘hold’ on the weather and will watch to see how the track is playing as he’s drawn Barrier 17.

10. Gentil Tonton: European bred horse who has been looking for a decent trip and wet track, if he gets both on Saturday then a form reversal is likely. This has been his target race all preparation according to the stable.

16. Imperium: Running on solidly at his last two starts and his breeding suggests 3200m is ideal. Wet track won’t be an issue and is a realistic chance on ability but isn’t the most tractable animal.

 

Betting Strategy

NB: If rain arrives and track gets to slow.

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Nymph Monte for 5 units at $2.5 or less

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