Champion Bets NZ Racing: Ellerslie, Sunday 1st January 2017

Posted: December 30, 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 3/ Good 4

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.metservice.com

Saturday 31stMax 19c. Cloudy Periods.

Sunday 1stMay 19c. Mainly Fine.

 

R8 Laser City of Auckland Cup G3 Hcp 2400m

Speed Map

Tempo: Slow/Even

Major Players 

1. Saint Emillion: The likely leader and was only run down late at WFA last start in the Zabeel Classic on Boxing Day. The stable can produce a runner well on the quick back up but with 60.5kg at 2400m, he could be vulnerable late.

3. St Jean: Ex-Aussie has won at the trip but is yet to show much in New Zealand in two runs.

6. King Kamada: Tough old stayer goes well here but is probably set for the Auckland Cup in March.

8. Fanatic: Oaks winner last year and was much better last start. This is another big step up in class and she needs to improve rapidly to win.

9. Lizzie L’Amour: Lightly race and keeps improving. Impressed last start talking out Group Three Waikato Cup and can win this off the minimum weight.

13. Snow Secret: Much better last start and has won twice here which is a big positive. Drawn well and this looks a nice set up for her.

14. Five to Midnight: A touch disappointing last start so can improve on that.

15. Jiayuguan: Ex-Aussie was good in the Counties Cup, but looks to be covered by a few on her most recent start in the Waikato Cup.

16. Megablast: Chased home ‘Lizzie and Snow’ last start and may want a bit of rain which is unlikely.

18. Zambezi Warrior: Needs to improve but does have promise as a lightly raced Pentire..

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Lizzie L’Amour for 1.1 units win at $4.5 or better

 

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Snow Secret for 0.7 units at $7 or better

 

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Five to Midnight for 1.0 unit at $5 or better

R9 Sistema Railway Stakes G1 SWP 1200m

Speed Map

Tempo: Fast/Slow/Fast

Ellerslie 1200m races are typically run fast to the early first bend, then the brakes go on through the middle with jockeys reluctant to move around the sweeping bend then it’s a sprint from the 400m.

Major Players 

1. Ryan Mark: Can win if back to best, but hasn’t been this prep. So not sure where the improvement will come from.

2. Natuzzi: Will probably produce the best closing sectional, will need luck in the straight.

3. Perfect Fit: Probably the best horse in the race, where she lands from the draw will determine her fate from barrier 13.

5. Start Wondering: Had excuses last start, but dominant the start prior. It will be Interesting if the money comes as its normally right.

6. Irish Moon: Only run down late here last start, this is harder and Coleman jumps off to ride Perfect Fit.

7. Brighton: Can reel off a sectional and looks a lot more reliable after being gelded.

11. Red Striker: Set for this, but is she good enough at this level?

13. Snowdrop: Has early speed and a good gate.  Lightly raced and looks tough to beat with a big weight drop coming into this.

 

Betting Strategy

How they jump and where they land in running early may decide this year’s renewal, so inside draws and early speed look the way to go.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Start wondering for 1.1 units at $4.50 or better

 

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Snowdrop for 1.0 unit at $5 or better

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

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