Champion Bets NZ Analysis: Hastings, Saturday August 27th 2016 – G1 Makfi Challenge

Posted: August 26, 2016

Champion_Bets

Current Track Rating: Slow 7 (Likely upgrade to Dead 6)

Rail: True

NB: Rail was off this time last year so would pay to watch the first few races to get a feel for the track.

 

R7 Makfi Challenge Group 1 1400m WFA

Speed Map

Major Players 

1. Kawi: Last year’s winner and probably the best horse in the field, but has had an interrupted prep and bad barrier to overcome. But if Leith Innes can slot him in and if he is anywhere near his best (watch betting), he’s the one to beat.

4. Hasslehoof: Promising horse who exploded onto the scene last season. Drawn in the car park (Barrier 16), so will need luck. Matthew Cameron sticks with him and with an OK run should be thereabouts.

10. Stolen Dance: Professional mare who was always thereabouts in these type of races last season. If she has found a length or two this year, she is a genuine winning chance. Has a slight fitness advantage over some runners coming here second up.

11. Our Vergara: Aussie import in the right stable. A six length 4th to Winx in the Doncaster (which rated very highly) last season suggests she will be competitive here.

13. Valley Girl: Handy performer as a 3yo filly last prep. If she is improved as a 4 years old, can be a player today. Barrier 14 is a slight concern.

15. Capella: Not much between her and the Valley Girl on last season’s form and trialled impressively on the 2nd of August. Will get back and need a few things to go right, but can be competitive.

16. Mime: Solid 3yo filly from last season and pedigree suggests will improve as a 4yo. Will be on speed and could prove tough to run down. Holds nominations for the Cox Plate and Caulfield cup.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Kawi – 1.35 units at $3.75 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Valley Girl – 1.1 units at $4.50 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Capella – 0.7 units at $7 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Mime – 0.3 units at $16 or more.

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