Champion Bets NFL: Wild Card Weekend – Monday January 9th 2017

Posted: January 8, 2017 at 6:11 pm
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Miami 45.5 @ Pittsburgh -10

Monday January 9, 5:05pm AEDT 

Moneyline

 

Miami (10-6)

Miami played to win last week and to gauge how well they stacked up against a top tier team like New England. Unfortunately, they failed, although they had chances to stay in the game but a big play and a big turnover did them in. NE jumped out to a 20-0 lead and then kept Miami at bay by hitting a big 77 yard touchdown pass on a catch and run by Julian Edelman and returned a fumble near the Miami goal line 69 yards to set up NE with another touchdown rather than a Miami touchdown. Miami was out gained 6.3yppl to 4.9yppl. They were out rushed 4.1ypr to 3.3ypr and out passed 8.1yps to 6.0yps.

For the season Miami averages 5.8yppl against teams allowing 5.4yppl but allows 5.6yppl against teams averaging 5.4yppl, including allowing 140 yards rushing and 4.8ypr against 4.3ypr. Since Matt Moore began playing for Ryan Tannehill the Miami offensive numbers are actually better in his three games relative to the opponents they have played.

Pittsburgh (11-5)

Pittsburgh rested their big three and others so their 27-24 victory over Cleveland was a meaningless game.

Pittsburgh averages 5.8yppl against teams allowing 5.5yppl and are average on defence allowing 5.5yppl against 5.5yppl.

Key Stats

MiamiPFPAOFRYPROFPYPSYPPLDFRDYPRDFPDYPSDYPPL
Offence23241144.52196.95.81404.82446.25.6
Deffence23221084.12386.45.41164.32316.25.4

PittsburghPFPAOFRYPROFPYPSYPPLDFRDYPRDFPDYPSDYPPL
Offence25201104.32626.85.81004.32436.25.5
Deffence22221124.32446.45.51124.32386.35.5

OFR – Offensive yards rushing
OFP – Offensive yards passing
DFR – Defensive yards rushing allowed
DFP – Defensive yards passing allowed
YPR = Yards Per Rush
YPS = Yards Per Pass
YPPL = Yards Per Play

Rosters

  • For Miami, S Reshad Jones and Isa Abdul-Quddus are both on injured reserve. Those two have been the Dolphins two top safeties this year. Their best CB Byron Maxwell is also doubtful for this game.
  • For Pittsburgh TE Ladarius Green is likely out.

The Verdict

Pittsburgh qualifies in a playoff system which is 15-2 ats. My numbers favour Pittsburgh by six points and project about 48 points using all the games this year. If I only use the games Ben played in and only the games Matt Moore played for Miami I project about 52 points. Since Miami defeated Pittsburgh in Miami 30-15, the Dolphins have won eight of ten games. That sounds impressive on the surface but the victory against Pittsburgh came in a game they knocked Big Ben out. He came back but was impacted by the injury and missed the next week against NE.

For Miami none of those eight victories came against a playoff team. Their only victory against a playoff team was the 30-15 win over the Steelers with an injured Roethlisberger. They’ve held just four teams below 22 points this year. Pittsburgh has won seven games in a row.

Other than their home game against NE without Big Ben, Pittsburgh has scored at least 24 points in every home game. Pittsburgh should get to 27-30 points in this game without much trouble. The question becomes how many points can Miami score? Miami could certainly get blown out in this game but the number is a little high especially because Miami exhibits the kind of team that could easily score down by 13 late in the game to lose by six but get the cover.

And, if Miami stands a good chance to cover this number, they probably also stand a chance to get into the twenties in this game, which gives the game an excellent chance to go over the total as well. The weather is projected to be under 20 degrees so we need a little more value before I will take the over. If this total goes under 45 I will gladly jump on the over in this game.

Forecast

PITTSBURGH 28 MIAMI 20

NY Giants 44.5 @ Green Bay -5

Monday January 9, 8:40pm AEDT 

Moneyline

NY Giants (11-5)

 

The Giants went to Washington and played their starters for the majority of the game and ruined the Redskins dreams of making the playoffs. They dominated the Redskins from the beginning and held on to win 19-10. NY controlled the clock for about 12 more minutes. Washington was minus three in turnovers. While NY was out gained 5.3yppl to 4.9yppl they ran the ball 25 more times while Washington threw the ball 11 more times to skew the final numbers.

The Giants are below average on offense, averaging just 5.2yppl against 5.6yppl but well above average on defence allowing just 5.1yppl against teams averaging 5.6yppl.

Green Bay (10-6)

GB needed the win to secure the division at Detroit on Sunday night and they did just that on the way to their sixth straight win. The Packers won 31-24 and controlled the clock by about eight more minutes than Detroit. The game was played pretty evenly from the line of scrimmage but GB executed on more of their drives and converted more drives into touchdowns versus field goals and was plus one on turnovers.

GB averages 5.7yppl against teams allowing 5.4yppl but allows 5.9yppl against teams averaging 5.5yppl.

Key Stats

NY GiantsPFPAOFRYPROFPYPSYPPLDFRDYPRDFPDYPSDYPPL
Offence1918883.52436.35.2893.62526.15.1
Deffence22231064.22466.55.61074.22496.45.6

Green BayPFPAOFRYPROFPYPSYPPLDFRDYPRDFPDYPSDYPPL
Offence27241064.52626.45.7954.126975.9
Deffence22221054.22396.35.41044.12476.55.5

OFR – Offensive yards rushing
OFP – Offensive yards passing
DFR – Defensive yards rushing allowed
DFP – Defensive yards passing allowed
YPR = Yards Per Rush
YPS = Yards Per Pass
YPPL = Yards Per Play

Rosters

  • For the Giants DE Jason Pierre-Paul is out again but the only current Giant listed as out.
  • For Green Bay, CB Quinten Rollins and RB James Starks are out. WR Randall Cobb is questionable but looks like he may play.

The Verdict

GB qualifies in a playoff system which is 15-2 ats. My numbers favour GB by four points and project about 45 points. If I use just the games for GB since their winning streak started I get GB by 6.5 points and project about 47 points. GB defeated the Giants 23-16 earlier in the season but these teams are much different than when they met back in October. GB is much better and healthier on offence.

The Giants are much healthier on defence and are running the ball better the second half of the season. The Giants haven’t scored more than 19 points in their last five games and other than their 27 point performance at Cleveland (7 points scored on a defensive score), they haven’t scored more than 20 points in a road game this year.

The Giants defence has played well this year but the fact remains they have allowed 23 or more points in four of their eight games. The games where they allowed less than 23 points were against the Rams, Browns, Redskins last week and Cowboys in week one. So, they have held down good offences but they are likely to give up something in the 20’s and if that is the case, it makes it hard for the Giants to win this game.

The Giants already have losses at Minnesota by 14 points, at GB by 7 points, at Pittsburgh by 10 points and at Philadelphia by 5 points. GB comes in having scored 30 or more points in four straight games including 38 points at home against both the Vikings and Seahawks defences which are elite defences. Both of those defences saw some regression over the last part of the season so they may not have been facing as elite of a defence that this Giants defence has been as of late.

But, GB has scored 21 or more in 11 straight games so they figure to get into the 20’s in this game. That 21 point performance was at home in the snow against a very good Houston defence. GB has given up 24 or more points in the last three games but most of that has been after they have established large leads and allowed meaningless points in the end. The Giants defence is playing outstanding but the offence is well below average and has struggled on the road.

Despite GB having secondary issues, their offence is thriving right now. Aaron Rodgers is playing some of his best ball ever and if he doesn’t turn the ball over it will be difficult for the Giants to win this game. NY has plenty of people in their secondary but GB has a lot of threats on offence to create individual matchups and if the Packers can protect long enough someone in those matchups will come open. A fair number at home for GB to overcome in this game.

Forecast

GREEN BAY 27 NY GIANTS 19

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