Champion Bets NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round, Sunday 15th January 2017

Posted: January 14, 2017 at 5:59 pm
Champion_Bets

Seattle 51.5 @ Atlanta -5

Sunday January 15, 8:35am AEDT 

Moneyline

 

Seattle (10-5-1)

Seattle crushed Detroit last week 26-6. They out rushed the Lions 177-49 and 4.7ypr to 3.3ypr. They also out passed Detroit 6.4yps to 5.2yps. Overall, they out gained Detroit 5.5yppl to 4.6yppl. Those numbers are even skewed even more when you see Seattle ran the ball 23 more times and Detroit threw the ball five more times. Seattle controlled the clock by about an extra 13 minutes.

Seattle is above average throwing the ball this year averaging 6.8yps against teams allowing 6.5yps and 5.7yppl against teams allowing 5.5yppl. Their defense is above average for the season allowing 3.4ypr against teams averaging 4.2ypr and 5.0yppl against teams averaging 5.4yppl. Since Earl Thomas has gone out, however, their defense has become just slightly above average rather than well above average.

Thomas has effectively missed the last seven games. He played in the game against Carolina but left after only 17 snaps. Since he has been out Seattle has intercepted only one pass in the last seven games. They did intercept a pass in the Carolina game but Thomas was playing at that point in the game.

Atlanta (11-5)

Atlanta is having a fantastic season offensively, gaining 4.6ypr against teams allowing 4.1ypr, 8.2yps against teams allowing 6.5yps and 6.7yppl against teams allowing 5.5yppl. The defence is slightly below average allowing 4.5ypr against teams averaging 4.0ypr and 5.6yppl against teams averaging 5.4yppl.

Key Stats

SeattlePFPAOFRYPROFPYPSYPPLDFRDYPRDFPDYPSDYPPL
Offence$22.001810442566.85.7903.42246.25
Defence$24.00231134.22436.55.51104.22356.25.4

AtlantaPFPAOFRYPROFPYPSYPPLDFRDYPRDFPDYPSDYPPL
Offence$34.00251204.62958.26.71054.52666.25.6
Defence$24.00241094.12466.55.510642466.35.4

OFR – Offensive yards rushing
OFP – Offensive yards passing
DFR – Defensive yards rushing allowed
DFP – Defensive yards passing allowed
YPR = Yards Per Rush
YPS = Yards Per Pass
YPPL = Yards Per Play

Rosters

  • Seattle is healthy other than S Earl Thomas and RB C.J. Prosise is a game time decision.
  • For Atlanta, they appear to be very healthy as well.

The Verdict

Atlanta is coming off a couple of high scoring games and that tends to inflate the line. They qualify in a negative situation, which is 44-20-1 and plays against Atlanta in this game. That situation is 16-2 ats the last five years. On the other side Seattle qualifies in a 24-10-2 negative playoff situation, which is 8-2 since 2009. That situation plays against teams that come off big wins the week before.

This game also qualifies in an over situation, which is 24-11-0 in the playoffs. My numbers favour Atlanta by six points and project about 49 points. The 49 points certainly don’t help us get over the total in this game but this game will play to a much higher score. Atlanta has gone over the total in every home game this year and totalled at least 24 points in every game at home this year.

Atlanta has allowed at least 26 points to every team with an above average offence this year so while they have scored at least 30 in each of their last seven home games (at least 24 in every home game) they’ve also given up at least 26 to the good offences. Seattle is a little more of an enigma in terms of how they will perform in this game. They figure to hit some big plays with their offence as Seattle tends to play to the level of their opponent.

But, from a side perspective, they’ve lost 38-10 at Green Bay and 14-5 at Seattle while also defeating New England 31-24. Atlanta is just 3-10 ats as a home favourite since Dan Quinn took over the Falcons last year. Seattle is 13-5-2 ats the last 20 games as a road underdog, including 2-0 ats this year. The situations on the side go both ways although the value lies in favour of Atlanta at the current line. This game should be a high scoring game and both teams show get into the high twenties in this game, which will put the game over the total.

The last time these two met in the playoffs Atlanta defeated Seattle here 30-28. I expect a similar type scoring game this week. My adjusted numbers for Earl Thomas being out make this line seven so I’ll call it at that number and let the line dictate which way I lean.

Forecast

ATLANTA 33 SEATTLE 26

 

 

Houston 44.5 @ New England -15.5

Sunday January 15, 12:15pm AEDT 

Moneyline

Houston (9-7)

Houston dominated an Oakland team severely handicapped at the quarterback position last week. They won the game 27-14 and out rushed Oakland 123-64. They also out passed the Raiders 6.7yps to 2.9yps and sacked Oakland three times while also committing three turnovers from Oakland. Overall they out gained Oakland 4.2yppl to 2.9yppl and those numbers were really skewed as Houston ran the ball 23 more times while Oakland threw the ball 23 more times.

Houston is well below average scoring just 18 points per game against teams allowing 23 points per game. They also average just 5.2yps against teams allowing 6.4yps. They also average 4.7yppl against teams averaging 5.5yppl. They allow 4.0ypr against teams averaging 4.1ypr, 5.6yps against 6.4yps and 4.9yppl against 5.5yppl.

New England (14-2)

New England averages 7.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense has been stout against the rush, which is what Houston prefers to do, allowing 3.9ypr against teams averaging 4.3ypr and 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl. Their scoring defense is number one in the NFL, allowing just 16 points per game against teams averaging 21 points per game. While that is good part of their success has come because they have played weak offenses.

Key Stats

HoustonPFPAOFRYPROFPYPSYPPLDFRDYPRDFPDYPSDYPPL
Offence$18.002011741975.24.79841985.64.9
Defence$23.00231094.22426.45.51064.12466.45.5

New EnglandPFPAOFRYPROFPYPSYPPLDFRDYPRDFPDYPSDYPPL
Offence$28.00161173.92707.55.9893.92406.15.3
Defence$23.00211174.22296.25.41144.322165.3

OFR – Offensive yards rushing
OFP – Offensive yards passing
DFR – Defensive yards rushing allowed
DFP – Defensive yards passing allowed
YPR = Yards Per Rush
YPS = Yards Per Pass
YPPL = Yards Per Play

Rosters

  • Houston had numerous players listed as limited today.
  • New England appears to be pretty healthy for this game.

The Verdict

I don’t have any situations on this game. My numbers favour NE by 11 points and project about 42 points. Houston has just not matched up well with New England over the years, including this year when they lost 27-0 and Tom Brady did not play quarterback. NE beat Houston with their third string quarterback. The one thing Houston has done about average on offence this year is run the ball but NE stops the run better than the pass so that will make it extremely difficult for Houston to move the ball.

NE has allowed 12 touchdowns in their last eight games and they were all passing touchdowns so no rushing touchdowns. NE has played a pretty weak offensive schedule this year but Houston is just another extension of that so I don’t see their defence playing any worse than they have this year. Houston has lost at NE by 27, 13, 28 and 33 points with NE scoring at least 40 points in the three games Tom Brady has played. They only scored 27 with Jacoby Brissett in their game earlier this year.

Houston has only scored more than 14 points in one of those games. Houston hasn’t scored more than 13 points on the road against above average defences this year. NE has allowed more than 17 points in five games this year. Two of those games were after they had huge leads. Another game followed two special team fumbles deep in their own territory that led to two touchdowns for the opponent. The other two came against good offences at the time they played them. Barring turnovers, it will be very difficult for Houston to score in this game. Mark them down for no more than 13 points.

Can NE get to 30 points? They’ve done it in three of five home games with Brady and scored 24 and 26 in the other two games. Houston has a good defence but they seem to fail to show up in the biggest moments against the best teams in the league. Their history against NE shows that as well. I don’t see them being competitive in this game and I’ll lean to the under as well. NE has covered five in a row and six of their last seven as home favourites of 14 or more points.

Forecast

NEW ENGLAND 30 HOUSTON 13

Related Articles