Caulfield, Tuesday 26 January 2015: The Betfair Insider

Posted: January 25, 2016 at 11:13 am

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Caulfield, Tuesday 25 January 2016

Track – Good 4

Rail +7m

Weather forecast www.bom.gov.au

Monday 25th – Max 22°C. Mostly cloudy, 40% chance of drizzle.

Tuesday 26th – Max 26°C. Windy (20-30km/h). Mostly cloudy, 70% chance of drizzle.

 

R4 Blue Diamond Preview, SWP 2YO Fillies Group 3 1000m

Speed Map

R4 Blue Diamond Preview

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners have been the SP favourite
  • 4 of past 5 winners won their last start
  • 4 of past 5 winners have come from barriers 1-6
  • 1 of past 5 winners have been on debut

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead Up Result

2015 Rail True Good 3

1st – Fontiton – SP $1.9 57.5kg BR 5 – Let up 13 weeks 1st Inglis 2YO 1000m Moonee Valley

2nd – Haybah – SP $21 55kg BR 1 – 4th up 2 weeks 1st 2YF MDN-SW 1000m Ballarat

3rd – Pursuits – SP $26 55kg BR 10 – First race

 

2014 Rail Out 6m Good 3

1st – Eloping – SP $3.2 55kg BR 2 – Freshened 5 weeks 1st 2Y MDN-SW 900m Bendigo

2nd – Lumosty – SP $41 55kg BR1 – First race

3rd – Sakitto – SP $26 55kg BR 4 – 2nd up 1 week 2nd 2YF-SWP Caulfield

 

2013 Rail True Good 3

1st – Miracles Of Life – SP $3.1 56kg BR 6 – 3rd up 3 weeks 1st 2Y 0-75 1050m Morphettville

2nd – Diamond Glow – SP $13 57.5kg BR 2 – 2nd up 3 weeks 1st VGOLD Carat 1000m Caulfield

3rd – Swing Vote – SP $14 56kg BR 9 – 2nd up 3 weeks 1st 2YO SWP 1000m Warwick Farm

 

2012 – Malasun – SP $8.5 55kg BR 5 – First Race

2011 – One Last Dance – SP $2.4 55kg BR 11 – Freshened 6 weeks 1st 2YF HCP 955m Moonee Valley

 

Major Players (Raced)

#1 The Seductress – She’s won her past two starts including the latest, an $80K race at Caulfield. She jumped well and was off the bit on the turn but kept responding for a narrow win. She’s drawn the car park and will need luck to get in.

#2 Pearl Congenial – She debuted back in October and ran a very respectable 2nd to Missrock in the Debutant Stakes at Caulfield. She only jumped fairly that day and was able to muster through to share the lead. She’s going to need to jump much quicker from the outside barrier this time. Her trial leading into this was fine.

#3 Want To Rock  – She won on debut at Flemington when her much more fancied stablemate Sword Of Light was a late scratching. She looks a jump and run filly but it’s fair the say the stable have a bigger opinion of Sword Of Light which has to be respected.

#4 La Renarde – She went toe-to-toe with Want To Rock over the concluding stages at Flemington and they both put a gap between themselves and the third and fourth horses. It was a professional debut but not outstanding.

#5 Extra Olives – She won on debut at Kyneton and looked ‘all out’ on the line. Only an outside hope.

#6 Sword Of Light – Scratched at the gate as the SP favourite in the race that was won by stablemate Want To Rock. At the start prior she landed good bets when taking out an Echuca Maiden by a 5L margin. She was extremely green on the line, which is a positive sign that she has plenty more to offer. Her problem is the pressure of race day. Should she present a much more settled filly she would be extremely hard to beat.

#7 Emphatically –Resumes off a 73 day freshen up. She put in a nice effort in a rich race ($121K) at Sandown after being trapped wide. It wasn’t an overly hectic pace up front so it wasn’t exactly a bad position. She gets the blinkers for the first time.

#8 Motown Lil – Comes through the Sandown race that was taken out by Jackson. Just a fair performance when trapped behind the speed. Went back to the trials and put in a solid effort when finishing next to Gridelin.

#9 She’s Going Off Excuses on debut before finishing one better at Geelong. Outside hope.

Major Players (Best of First Starters)

#10 Dazzy’s DayJumped well and raced well before being allowed to drift back through the field on the line. Watch money as jump out no real guide.

#12 GridelinThe dashing grey filly was having her first public outing when winning a trial at Sandown. She was able to hold off the more experienced Motown Lil on that occasion which bodes well for a solid debut performance here.

#13 Pedrena – The Mick Price filly was allowed to coast behind Dazzy’s Day in her trial before being asked the question late where we saw good acceleration just as the jump out concluded. Market support would have me very keen here.

#14 Savvy Belle – A nice professional effort when allowed to coast home next to stablemate El Venetian.

#17 Dream FirstThis filly put in a really professional effort when leading throughout and pulling away late to take out a Flemington jump out back in December. One to watch!

 

Betting Strategy

A really intriguing race with race day betting going to prove a good guide for some of these first starters.

Back on Betfair  BACK – WIN – Sword of Light – Had the stable support before being scratched at the barriers. No stable is hotter than Ellerton / Zahra. 3 units at $7 +.

Back on Betfair  BACK – WIN – Pedrena – I liked the acceleration she showed late in her jump out. 1 unit at $21 +.

Back on Betfair  BACK – WIN – Dream First – Nice professional effort at the jump outs. Strong late. 0.5 unit at $13 +.

Back on Betfair  BACK – WIN – Selena – No public jump outs but there has been support early in fixed odds markets. 0.5 unit at $17 +.

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying,

The Betfair Insider

 

NB: Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au