Caulfield, Saturday 6th February 2016: The Betfair Insider

Posted: February 4, 2016

 Betfair Insider

 

Current Track Rating: Good 3 or 4

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 5th – Max 27°C. Mostly sunny.

Saturday 6th – Max 30°C. Sunny. Light northeast to north-westerly winds.

 

R5 Inglis Premier 2YO SW 1200m

Speed Map

inglis premier 2yo

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners had race experience
  • 5 of past 5 winners had an SP less than $5
  • 3 of past 5 winners were First up
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been Colts or Geldings

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

2015 (Good 3, Rail +5m, 1000m Sandown)

1st Stoker – SP $4.60 57kg BR4 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 3rd 2yo 1000m Morphettville

2nd Manhattan Blues – SP 6.50 57kg BR7 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 6th 2YO BD Preview C&G 1100m Sandown

3rd Jameka – SP $3.40F 55kg BR13 – 2nd up, 7 week let up, 2nd 2YO Maiden 900m Bendigo

 

2014 (Good 4, Rail True, 1200m Mornington)

1st Gold Force – SP $4.60 57kg BR5 – First Start

2nd Modoc – SP $2.30F 57kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 1st 2YO SWP 1100m Scone

3rd Fontein Ruby – SP $8.50 55kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 7th Blue Diamond Preview (F) 1000m Caulfield

 

2013 (Good 3, Rail True, 1200m Mornington)

1st Twilight Royale – SP $2.20F 55kg BR 3 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 2nd 2YO HCP 1200m Rosehill

2nd Resistant – SP $3.60 57kg BR 8 – 3rd up, 10 week let up, 1st 2YO SWP 1100m Caulfield

3rd Lannister – SP $8 57kg BR 4 – 1st up, 15 weeks, 4th 2YO Showcase 1000m Ballarat

 

2012 – 1st Snitzerland SP $2.10F 55kg BR3 – 1st up, 14 weeks, 2nd 2YO Listed 1000m Flemington

2011 – 1st Masthead SP $4.20 57kg Br 10 – 1st up, 14 weeks, 4th Maribyrnong Plate G3 1000m Flemington

 

Major Players (Raced)

2. Valliano: Should have won the Debutant Stakes on debut when held up in the home straight. At his next start went down narrowly to Dalradian in the Inglis 2YO 1000m event at Moonee Valley. First up here, gelded has drawn perfectly and will appreciate getting back to a good rated surface. Profiles well for the race and stable will have targeted this race specifically.

3. Hell Of An Effort: Undefeated in two career starts to date and won the 1100m lead up race to this two weeks ago at this very track. A jump and run type who sits handy on speed. He’s won twice now at 1100m and the overall time last start was 5 lengths above benchmark. If he can run a strong 1200m he deserves to be the early market favourite.

5. Hey Doc: He was on speed and just run down by stablemate Lessyd 21 days ago at Flemington. His work on the Moonee Valley course-proper Monday was very sharp (link below) which gives me the impression the horse will be better suited on Saturday around a bend. Improver.

6. Curvature: Interesting runner that was very green on debut running 2nd at Pakenham over 1200m behind the more professional Seaburge. They walked in front that day but first and second put a nice gap on the field at the line. 15 days between runs looks ideal but I’m still worried about his race manners. Looks talented and confident he’s the knockout runner at a big price.

(Debutants)

9. Nasdex: The Peter Moody gelding is related to Melito and Furnaces and has done everything right at the jump outs. Has been $9 into $6 in early markets and should map well.

10. Gretna: Two professional trial efforts in Sydney without being knocked around. Has speed to go forward and should sit just behind the speed. Looks ready.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Valliano – 2 units at $7.00 or better

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Hey Doc – 1 unit at $11+

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Curvature – 1 unit at $13+

 

R8 Manfred Stakes G3 3YO SW + P 1200m

Speed Map

manfred stakes

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners have been first up
  • 3 of past 5 winners had an SP less than $4
  • 2 of past 5 winners have raced in Group 1 company at their previous start

 

Previous Winners & Lead-Up Result

2015 (Sandown)

1st Java – SP $7.00 56kg BR 7 – 4th up, 3 weeks, 1st 3Y BM64 1400m Sandown

2nd Petrology – SP $5.5 59kg BR 11 – 1st up, 10 weeks let up, 1st Sandown Guineas G2 1600m Sandown

3rd Affirmation – SP $6 57kg BR6 – 1st up, 21 weeks, 1st 2YO HCP 1400m Caulfield

 

2014

1st Bull Point – SP $ 3.70 57kg BR4 – 1st up, 20 weeks, 3rd Golden Rose G1 1400m Rosehill

2nd Worth A Ransom – SP $20 56kg BR 3 – 1st up, 18 weeks, 13th Caulfield Guineas Prelude G3 1400m Caulfield

3rd The Quarterback – SP $11 58.5kg BR 8 – 1st up, 14 week let up, 1st 3YO BM70 1400m Sale

 

2013

1st Mirage (Royal Haunt) – SP $3.90 56kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 1st 3yo 0-68 Showcase 1210m Sale

2nd Force Command – SP $31 56kg BR 3 – 1st up, 18 weeks, 6th 3Y 0-72 1300m Sandown

3rd Hosting – SP $3.6 56kg BR 6 – 1st up, 20 weeks, 1st 3Y Maiden 1227m Mornington

 

2012 – 1st Mosheen – SP $3.20 55.5kg BR 2 – 1st up, 13 wk let up, 1st VRC Crown Oaks G1 2500m Flemington

2011 – 1st Enjin Number Nine – SP $15 55.5kg BR 2 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st Class 1 1212m Geelong

 

Major Players

1. Gold Symphony: Didn’t fire a shot 1st up in the Inglis Dash. Blinkers applied here but impossible to be back in his corner until we see a dramatic turnaround. Chance to improve around the bend?

2. Bon Aurum: Is first up since the Caulfield Guineas when finishing 9th beaten 5.25 lengths behind press statement. He raced seven times in his first preparation and kept raising the bar impressively. Plenty of 3yos fail to fire in their second preparation after such a tough program early on. He’s a Listed and Group 3 winner already and his best distance will be 1200 or 1400m. Not huge pace engaged so will roll forward if he’s ready. Chance at big odds.

4. Ready For Victory: Goes best first up and unlucky not to have won the McNeil last time in. Ran third in the Caulfield Guineas to Press Statement at G1 level. Probably came to the end of his preparation dropping back to the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes beaten 11 lengths. Looked sharp in a recent jump out and will be hard to beat on his home track. Glen Boss takes the ride.

6. Palentino: Hard not to be impressed by this galloper from the Darren Weir camp. Handled a major rise in class with ease during the Flemington carnival to win a 1400m stakes race where they ran good time finishing 10 lengths above the benchmark. Will they be positive from barrier 6? If yes then on raw ability he can beat them. If they want to look after him expect him to charge late. He’s the horse that you want to be on second and third up. Expect he drifts from $4.80 in early markets.

7. Golden Spin: His last three wins have been nothing short of exceptional. All over 1200m but dropping some serious sectionals in the process. Is rock hard fit and no doubt he’s appreciated the 28 day freshen up. Barrier 10 forces Mark Zahra to be aggressive early and he looks well placed here.

10. Vostok: Is undefeated in 3 career starts to date. Dominated at his last two starts in 3yo BM70 grade over 1400m and 1600m. Freshened up for the drop back to 1200m after getting out to the mile at his latest. Will get run of the race behind the speed and residual fitness means he’ll be forward enough to run a bold race here. I’m a little worried his turn of foot over 1200m won’t be sharp enough rising to this grade. Happy to risk at the price.

11. TulsaHas a habit of missing the start which is far from ideal but form ties in well with Bon Aurum and Ready For Victory in the Exford Plate and Guineas Prelude over 1400m in spring. He drew another horror barrier in the Caulfield Guineas to be beaten 4.3 lengths behind Press Statement. We’re yet to see the best of him and I suspect we won’t until he reaches 1400m+.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Ready For Victory – 2 units at $7 or better

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Palentino – Not Grand Final day, Lay to lose 10 units

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider