Caulfield, Saturday 27th February 2016: The Betfair Insider

Posted: February 25, 2016 at 5:17 pm

Current Track Rating: Good 3

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 26th – Max 23°C. Partly cloudy

Saturday 27th – Max 23°C. Possible shower.

 

R6 Futurity Stakes WFA 3YO+ 1400m Group 1

Speed Map

futurity stakes

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners have been second up
  • 2 of past 5 winners have won the CF Orr Stakes at previous start
  • 3 of past 5 winners have the SP favourite
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 4YO’s or older

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

2015 Good, Rail +6m

1st Suavito – SP $10 57kg BR4 – 1st up, 16 weeks, 1st Group 2 4YO+ FM Stakes 2000m Flemington

2nd Smokin’ Joey – SP $15 59kg BR7 – 9th up, 2 weeks, 1st Group 3 Carlyon Cup 1600m Caulfield

3rd Dissident – SP $1.45F 59kg BR8 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 1st Group 1 CF Orr Stakes 1400m Caulfield


2014 Good, Rail +3m

1st Moment of Change – SP $3.20 59kg BR6 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 1st Group 1 CF Orr Stakes 1400m Caulfield

2nd Sertorius – SP $26 59kg BR3 – 1st up, 14 weeks, 1st Group 2 Zipping Classic 2000m Caulfield

3rd Pinwheel – SP $18 59kg BR4 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 4th Group 2 Expressway Stakes 1200m Randwick


2013 Good, Rail True

1st All Too Hard – SP $1.90F 55.5kg BR4 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st Group 1 CF Orr Stakes 1400m Caulfield

2nd Glass Harmonium – SP $18 59kg BR9 – 1st up, 16 weeks, 1st Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes 200m Flemington

3rd King Mufhasa – SP $5.50 59kg BR7 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 5th Group 1 CF Orr Stakes 1400m Caulfield

 

2012 – 1st King Mufhasa – SP $2.60F 59kg BR5 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 2nd Group 1 Waikato Sprint 1400m Te Rapa

2011 – 1st More Joyous – SP $1.45F 57kg BR1 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st Breeders Classic 2 1200m Randwick

 

Major Players 

1. Boban: Had no luck in the CF Orr when he had to be restrained to the rear of the field to find cover for the replacement rider Douglas Whyte. Regular rider Glynn Schofield returns for the ride Saturday and the horse races best first and second up. Group 1 winner at this course and distance and has drawn an inside gate. Will need luck from the draw but can easily atone for his 2.2L 6th in the Orr.

3. Turn Me Loose: Led up the CF Orr Stakes going 9.5L above average speed and was entitled to tire late when finishing a 1.4L 4th. That was a game first up run and punters need to ask themselves if that was a good ‘bring on’ run to peak second up or will it take its toll on the horse on Saturday. Either way his early speed to the 600m mark of races is extraordinary always running well above benchmark standard. Although barrier 8 of 11 sounds wide his high level early cruising speed means he’ll find the front well within his comfort zone. Profile standout.

4. Hucklebuck: From a shocking draw in the CF Orr Dom Tourneur had to restrain his mount two or three pairs further back than ideal. The horse and jockey managed to navigate a relatively clear passage until rounding the turn when he was slightly held up and forced to come wide. It was a huge run for a horse returning second up from a long layoff. He maps perfectly just off the pace and can record big figures that puts him well within striking distance of the favourite Turn me Loose.

5. Trust In A Gust: Not too dissimilar to Hucklebuck. He put in a really game performance in the CF Orr when trapped wide for the majority of the race second up. He’ll work across to the front, along with Turn Me Loose and should get a better run than he did in the CF Orr. The Blinkers going on tells us it’s D-Day and he’s the pick of the weir runners for mine.     

6. Stratum Star: A sound return in the CF Orr when only beaten by a narrow margin. He draws softer this time (barrier 5) and looks dangerous should he train on. Perhaps he is looking for longer at this class range and strikes me as a serious contender in the Australian Cup over 2000m.

8. Scissor Kick: Returns from 37 weeks off with just the one public trial under his belt. His 3YO form stacks up OK with the likes of Hallowed Crown, Shooting To Win and Kermadec. $19 in early markets but if he can find his All Aged Stakes form of 2015 he’s a knockout. Being a stallion he’ll be ready.

10. Suavito: The only questions on her heading into the CF Orr was her health/fitness levels. She certainly had the ‘right form’ to win the race but it was 47 weeks since we last saw her. She answered that with an emphatic win after receiving a dream run and is drawn to receive one again on Saturday. She won’t be such an attractive price this time and they won’t underestimate her this time. No reason why she can’t do it again.

11. Politeness: She ran a distant, yet game second without luck in the Group 2 Rubiton Stakes. We know she has the ability to match it with the likes of Turn Me Loose after running second to him in the Group 1 1600m Emirates Stakes. The 1100m – 14000m looks a descent jump at this stage of the preparation and barrier 1 is probably not ideal for her.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Turn Me Loose – Expecting him to drift $4+ – 3 units

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Hucklebuck – 2 units at $5 or more – 1 unit

 

I suspect these two dominate the race. Beyond that the race has a long tail.

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

 

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