Caulfield, Saturday 13th February 2016: The Betfair Insider

Posted: February 11, 2016 at 5:23 pm

Current Track Rating: Good 3

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 12th – Max 27°C. Becoming sunny. No rain predicted.

Saturday 13th – Max 30°C. Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming south to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h during the afternoon.

 

R6 Autumn Stakes 3YO SWP 1400m Group 2

Speed Map

autumn stakes

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners have been last start winners
  • 4 of past 5 winners have come from barriers 1-5
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourite

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

2015 (Good 3, Rail True)

1st San Nicasio – SP $9 56kg BR7 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 4th G3 Manfred Stakes 1300m Sandown

2nd Zebulon – SP $13 56kg BR12 – 1st up, 16 weeks, 13th G1 Caulfield Guineas 1600m

3rd Firehouse Rock – SP $18 56kg BR3 – 8th up, 2 weeks, 5th 3&4YO BM78 1420m Flemington


2014 (Good 4, Rail True)

1st Thunder Fantasy – SP $7 56kg BR3 – 6th up, 11 week let up, 3rd G1 VRC Derby 2500m Flemington

2nd Rock Hero – SP $3.30F 57kg BR4 – 7th up, 12 week let up, 8th G1 Champion Stakes 3YO 2000m Randwick

3rd Late Charge – SP $6 56g BR8 – 1st up, 16 weeks, 9th G1 Caulfield Guineas 1600m


2013 (Good 3, Rail + 6m)

1st Mulaazem – SP $4F 56kg BR5 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 1st 0-68 1400m Cranbourne

2nd Fiveandahalfstar – SP $20 58kg BR10 – 8th up, 11 week let up, 1st G1 VRC Derby 2500m Flemington

3rd Super Cool – SP $7 58kg BR6 – 1st up, 14 weeks,  2nd G1 VRC Derby 2500m Flemington

 

2012 – 1st Pied A Terre – SP $3.80F 56kg BR11 – 3rd up, 4 week fresh, 2nd LR Ch. Manifold 1400m Flemington

2011 – 1st Dusty Star SP $7 55.5kg BR5 – 7th up, 4 week freshen, 1st 3Y HCP 1400m Flemington

 

Major Players 

1. Mahuta: Returns from a 5 week freshen up after a dominant on speed performance in the rich Gold Coast Magic Millions 3YO race. He’s now 5 wins from 7 starts doing it all with only a short spell after the Sandown Guineas. He fits the profile well with horses who have been ‘up and running’ however I wonder when we’re going to see the bottom of him. Holler now meets him 2kgs better since they met in the Gothic Stakes at this track and trip.

2. Vanbrugh: Returns from a 13 week spell. He won the Champion Stakes and Gloaming Stakes but didn’t show his best until he got up to around the mile and further. He’s big odds in early markets but with the Rosehill Guineas as his main target he’s a place chance at best if Waller decides to start him.

3. Tarzino: The Group 1 VRC Derby winner returns here and I expect him to run well fresh. I’ll think he’ll ease in early markets off just the one trial this time in. I’d be surprised but the race profile indicates he’ll be storming home into the placings.

4. Holler: He won the Australia Stakes which is normally a great guide for the Group 1 CF Orr Stakes run on this program. For that reason he’s the horse to beat back to his own age here. A firm track and on pace bias will only assist him. The one to beat for mine and barrier 9 is no issue for him. Mahuta got the better of Holler last time they met but with the weight swing and Holler’s preparation for this race it’s hard to go past him at a similar quote.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Holler – 5 units at $3 or better

 

R7 CF Orr Stakes 3YO+ WFA 1400m Group 1

Speed Map

cf orr stakes

Race Profile

  • 5 of past 5 winners have been the SP favourite (coincidently all have SP’d < $3)
  • 5 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 5 or wider
  • 4 of past 5 winners have come through the Group 2 Australia Stakes
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been mares (Black Caviar, Typhoon Tracy)
  • Previous editions of the CF Orr have attracted much smaller fields

NB: Previous editions of the CF Orr have attracted much smaller fields

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

2015 (Good 3, Rail True)

1st Dissident – SP $2.70F 59kg BR7 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 3rd G2 WFA Australia Stakes 1200m Moonee Valley

2nd Entirely Platinum – SP $14 59kg BR6 – 1st up, 19 weeks, 8th G1 Turnbull Stakes 2000m Flemington

3rd Mourinho – SP $18 59kg BR3 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 1st G2 WFA Australia Stakes 1200m Moonee Valley


2014 (Good 3, Rail True)

1st Moment of Change – SP $2.35F 59kg BR5 – 5nd up, 2 weeks, 2nd G2 WFA Australia Stakes 1200m M Valley

2nd Eurozone – SP $6F 55.5kg BR4 – 1st up, 19 weeks, 1st G2 Stan Fox 3YO SW 1500m Rosehill

3rd Shamus Award – SP $3.50 55.5kg BR6 – 1st up, 15 weeks, 1st G1 Cox Plate 2040m Moonee Valley


2013 (Good 3, Rail + 6m)

1st All Too Hard – SP $2.30F 55.5kg BR9 – 1st up, 15 weeks, 2nd G1 Cox Plate 2040m Moonee Valley

2nd Mawingo – SP $16 59kg BR 2 – 1st up, 20 weeks, 8th G1 Underwood Stakes 1800m Caulfield

3rd Mr Moet – SP $13 59kg BR3 – 5th up, 6 week freshen up, 2nd G2 Perth Cup 2400m Ascot

 

2012 – 1st Black Caviar SP $1.05F 57kg BR5 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 1st G2 WFA Australia Stakes 1200m M Valley

2011 – 1st Typhoon Tracey SP $2F 57kg Br 11 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 3rd G2 WFA Australia Stakes 1200m M Valley

 

Major Players 

1. Fawkner: Resumes from only a 16 week spell, compared to last time in when he resumed from a 45 week spell. Winner of G1 Makybe Diva Stakes first up but that was over 1600m. He ended his campaign with a luckless run in the Cox Plate which looks worse on paper than what it was (bias).I struggle to think connections will be out to win here and think we’ll see the best of him out to a mile or further.

3. Boban: Has won his last two races first up and Chris Waller now sets him for 1400m races fresh. He put in one of the best trials you will ever seen on the 12th of January which indicates that he’s going better than ever. His 1400m record is dominant 14 starts for 9 wins. His regular rider Glyn Schofield has been replaced by Douglas White due to suspension. Barrier 13 won’t be an issue given field size and if he races best on firm tracks. Expecting strong support for him.

4. Lucky Hussler: Is one of only 5 other horses not first up which is a big advantage. He’s a proven Group 1 winner and his peak distance is between 1400 – 1600m. Drawn perfectly in barrier 8, relishes hard surfaces and he’ll SP favourite on The Exchange.

5. Rebel Dane: A good return run in the traditional lead up race (the Australia Stakes) which was taken out by Holler. He attempts the 1400m for the first time since June 2014. On that occasion he finished 7th to River Lad in the Stradbroke. I thought he was there to win the Australia Stakes and not overly keen to play on him up to this distance. Risking although the set up appears right on face value.

6. Mourinho: He got back in the Australia Stakes and finished off strong. He’ll be better suited second up and up to the 1400m. He’s had a trial between runs just to keep his fitness levels up. 9 starts for 3 wins at the track and has drawn best of the 4 runners coming through the Australia Stakes. Suspect he will drift from $26 and I prefer him in the 1600-1800m range.

7. Turn Me Loose: Is one of the most exciting gallopers in Australasia. He won the last 3 starts of his Australian campaign, which concluded with a victory in the Group 1 Emirates Stakes over 1600m. He’s had a couple of New Zealand trials and is said to be aimed for the rich $4m Queen Elizabeth Stakes later in this campaign. Using the profile (race fitness) and the fact he is looking to peak later on I’m willing to risk him on Saturday. Expect him to drift from $4.80 in early markets.

8. Hucklebuck: A doubtful runner due to drawing the outside barrier. He would be a good roughie to have on your side at big odds as he returned in great order last start. Won’t be laying him if connections elect to run. Knockout.

9. Trust In A Gust: A huge return in the Australia Stakes. He gets the tongue-tie applied and just has the awkward barrier to overcome. He showed a glimpse of his best first up and being a stallion expect him to come on significantly from that performance. He’s a tough on pacer that will sit outside the leader or possibly a pair back with cover. This is his best chance to claim his third group one and I’m expecting an avalanche of support for him on Saturday. $17 in early markets looks very generous.

12. Entirely Platinum: Only beaten narrowly in this race last year by Dissident, while Boban got the better of him on the post in the Memsie. He’ll push on from barrier 9 and I’m suggesting the stable would have him well and truly wound up for this race after narrowly going down here same course/distance in Group 1 company. Any on bias will assist but given the increased depth of this field I’m inclined to think he’ll come up short.

13. Bow Creek: Outstanding Australian debut behind Turn Me Loose in the G2 Schweppes Crystal Mile beaten half a length. He started favourite in the G1 Emirates Mile at his second start, before pulling up lame. His latest trial was great when wide throughout and John O’Shea has a knack for producing these imports fresh over 1400m. He’s drawn to get a soft run in transit from barrier 2 and has the right jockey in Ben Melham engaged. He does have a tendency to miss the start and there must be a query on him handling a rock hard Caulfield surface that could present by race seven. Expecting him to be solid in the market.

16. Rising Romance: She’s an outstanding mare that has just failed to crack it over the past two seasons in Australia. Her run in the 2015 Memsie puts her right in this despite 1400m appearing a touch short for her on paper. Damien Lane is as good as any and she’s the best of the big blowouts at $30+.

17. Suavito: Returns from 44 weeks off the scene. If she is back to her best she could win this! She won the Group 1 Futurity Stakes first up last time beating the 2015 CF Orr winner Dissident. Against her is barrier 1 and Luke Currie despite riding well of late has to be a query at this level.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – BOBAN – 2 units at $8 or better

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – TRUST IN A GUST – 1 unit at $10 or better

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – TURN ME LOOSE – To lose 10 units

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider