CAPITAL ONE CUP BETTING
Thursday October 29 Tips
As Aston Villa, Wigan, Newcastle and Middlesbrough will attest, Man City are susceptible to the occasional home cup shocker, but Crystal Palace are unlikely to join that odd-defying gang.
The Eagles have lost eight of their past nine meetings with the Premier League leaders and five in a row in Manchester and, whereas they were an unpredictable team last season, claiming 80% more points at home to the top six than the bottom six, they play to form this term, winning five in five against sides below them and losing five in five against those below.
Manuel Pellegrini’s men obtained a first clean sheet in nine at the weekend. The previous came against Palace and the next should too: the Londoners have fired five blanks in six against them and were shut out in both of their road reverses to date in 2015/16.
At the time of writing, Remi Garde is the 1.71 favourite to be next Aston Villa manager, yet a new boss isn’t expected to be installed in time to take charge, presenting those who were scathing about Tim Sherwood’s tactical nous with a chance to see how they compare without an established dugout patroller.
It has the potential to be an excruciating experience given that Villa were breached 12 times on their previous three visits to St Mary’s, the latest a 6-1 shaming under Sherwood in May.
Counting on goals definitely seems like a shrewd approach given what these clubs got up to earlier in the competition, with Southampton coasting to a 6-0 victory at MK Dons in the third round and Villa defeating Notts County 5-3 after extra time in the second round (it was 3-3 after 90 minutes).
According to the Championship winner market, Middlesbrough are Premier League-bound. If the prophecy is fulfilled, they will arrive at an advantage due to cup draws gifting them opportunities to re-sample away days at Liverpool, Man City, Arsenal and now Man United since September 2014.
Though there have been three wildly contrasting results – a glorious triumph at the Etihad Stadium, a routine loss at the Emirates and a full-time and extra-time draw at Anfield leading into a lengthy penalty shootout – there was one common thread throughout: under 2.5 goals after 90 minutes.
Man United are in the type of unders form to suggest that they will help Middlesbrough extend that streak, entering this clash fresh from a 1-1 draw with CSKA Moscow and a 0-0 with Man City.
Recommended Bet: Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.9