Canterbury – Wednesday December 30: The Trial Spy

Posted: December 30, 2015 at 11:01 am

TheTrial Spy_W_RGB

Canterbury Wednesday December 30

Race 3: 1250m 3YO Fillies Set Weights Maiden

Track: Soft 5

Rail: +8m

 

Summary

A full field of 12 runners line up for the third race at Canterbury. A great mix of debut runners and lightly raced horses to create some value for us.

The Track

Canterbury has been playing perfectly in recent months. As with any tight turning track saving ground and building momentum is a preferred option.

 

Major Players

TsaritsaShe’s been a bit of a trial star for some time and put the writing on the wall with a luckless debut second. She gets three big ticks today:

  1. An extra 50m
  2. Is drawn better for her (7 today vs 1 last start) and
  3. The big positive jockey switch: O’Donnell to Collett

Lady Carnoustie“First-up second prep” is always a strong play for lightly raced horses and Lady Carnoustie ticks that box. She was game on debut after solid trials and has continued that good form at the trials coming into this race. She’ll be in the top 3.

Majestic FaithShe comes through a different formline and Selita franked the form by winning again next start in a much tougher grade. She’s a danger.

PepperberryShe’s been doing everything right at the trials and that’s always a good sign for a bold showing on debut. Jumps well, puts herself in the race and from a hot camp in ‘Team Snowden’. She will in the top few runners coming to the turn and will be hard to get past.

Ciarlet: Finished right with the luckless Tsaritsa on debut and will only improve from the run.

 

Betting strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Tsaritsa at $2.75+ for 5 units

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Lady Carnoustie at $8+ for 1 unit

They wont be quite as generous today with Tsaritsa but she looks to have above average ability and is sure to improve from the run. The best value runner could be Lady Carnoustie.