Cannington, Saturday 23rd April 2016: The Form Hound – Galaxy and Perth Cup Final

Posted: April 21, 2016

 

R5 Galaxy Final 715m G1 

Track Record: Seeking Justice 41.42 seconds (Apr 2016) ***new track***

Past Winners

2015 – Space Star

2014 – Born Ali

2013 – Miata

2012 – Miata

2011 – Blue Lorian

Race Analysis

Seeking Justice produced what was likely his career best run in his heat win and may have found a new lease on life in his new Western Australian kennel. He is superbly drawn off the inside here and should find a forward position, if not lead.

My only concern is in Victorian races where he looked the winner on paper he managed to find a way to lose but I will stick with him here. Lioness Lulu has been airborne lately and did nothing wrong in her heat, she makes her own luck and I am hesitant to take her on (again).

Zipping Bella may be the forgotten runner in betting, she has really caught my eye lately and she looks a star stayer in the making, I am not happy with her draw but may make for a better price. She will be flying home late. Ryno’s Raider has never looked comfortable in recent starts and has been finding way too much trouble and his draw is no help.

Hodor, Alka Casey and Lofty Ambition all rate similarly and I just think they are a rung below the best and doubt they can win. Dyna Nihlist has been loving the step up to this distance range and if he can find the rails early he could be the knockout runner at odds.

Field & Stats

1. Seeking Justice: Best 42.41, recorded this time in heat win with a first split of 16.16. 13 of 20 career wins have come from Boxes 1-4. One from one this trip. Has won 20 races.

2. Hodor: Best 42.78, recorded this time in heat win with a first split of 16.44. Does best racing from this draw, three wins and one placing from four starts. One from one this trip.

3. Alka Casey: No winning time. Second in heat in a time of 42.78 with a first split of 16.64. Three of four career wins have come from Boxes 1-2.

4. Dyna Nihilist: Best 42.71, recorded this time in heat win with a first split of 16.39. Most experienced chaser in field with 104 starts. Only one win from this draw in seven starts.

5. Lofty Ambition: No winning time. Second in heat with a time of 42.72 with a first split of 16.20. Runner up in his past three starts. Has yet to place from this draw (one start).

6. Ryno’s Raider: No winning time, second in heat with a time of 43.23 with a first split of 16.54. Only one win from this draw in six starts. Has not won a race in his past eight starts.

7. Lioness Lulu: Best 42.66. Recorded this time in heat win with a first split of 16.24. Has won four of past five starts including the Group 1 Association Cup at Wentworth Park.

8. Zipping Bella: No winning time, second in heat with a time of 43.01 with a first split of 16.65. Least experienced chaser in field (15 starts). All 5 wins have come from Boxes 3-5.

9. Hard Bargain: First emergency. No winning time, third in heat in a time of 42.79 with a sizzling first split of 15.94. 7 of 11 career wins from Boxes 1-3.

10. Luna Jinx: Second emergency. No winning time, third in heat in a time of 42.71 with a first split of 16.60. Has 24 career wins.  Has won from every box.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Seeking Justice (1) >$2.10 for 3 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Zipping Bella (8) >$9.00 for 2 units

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) Dyna Nihilist (4) >$2.10 for 1 unit

 

R8 Perth Cup Final 520m G1 

Track Record: Kruggerand 29.83 seconds (Mar 2016)

Past Winners

2015 – My Bro Fabio

2014 – Keybow

2013 – Dyna Nalin

2012 – Oaks Road

2011 – High Earner

Race Analysis

Ima Wagtail may be the most improved chaser in the country, he has won his past three and last start was clipped when crossing over from the wide draw on the first turn and still ran slick time, he should be able to find a forward position and be handy on the first turn and prove too good.

Blazin’ Bomber is the class chaser of the field but has plenty of speed underneath him and won’t find it as easy as his heat. He will be charging home though. Shared Equity broke the first split record in her heat and is actually even better drawn off the track, however she benefited from plenty of trouble behind her and may need the same again.

Ramifications is a superstar in the making who has impeccable early speed but this is his toughest test to date and there will be a stack of early pressure, not willing to lay him though. Miracle and Katsuro Sahara just don’t look to have the class on the stop watch to feature in the finish and may get too far back.

Tiggerlong Await would need a shuffle up front but could sail around the field and looks a place chance. Lorus Time will likely get squeezed early and is outclassed for mine.

Field & Stats

1. Ima Wagtail: Best 29.97, recorded this time in heat win, first split of 5.50, won his past three starts, three of seven career wins from Boxes 1-2. Led all the way in heat.

2. Ramifications:  Best 29.88, recorded this time in heat win, first split of 5.44. Has come first or second in his past 10 starts. Never raced from this draw. Two from two from Box 1. Has led all the way in his past three starts.

3. Blazin’ Bomber: Best 29.85, recorded this time in heat win, led all the way in heat. Has won his past three starts since resuming from injury. One from one this draw.

4. Lorus Time: Best 30.11. recorded this time in heat win, first split of 5.55. Has finished first or second in his past six starts. In the money six times from 11 starts this draw.

5. Tiggerlong Await: Best 30.23, recorded this time in heat win, first split of 5.49. Two from two from this draw, eight of 18 career wins Boxes 5-8. Has won over this trip from this draw.

6. Shared Equity: Best 30.02, recorded this time in heat win, first split of 5.36 (record). Has the most wins of any chaser in this field with 25. 10 of 25 career wins Boxes 5-8.

7. Katsuro Sahara: Best 30.25. Recorded heat win of 30.26 with a first split of 5.46. Oldest and most experienced chaser in field (68 starts). Has never missed a placing over this trip.

8. Miracle: Best 30.29.  Won heat in 30.60 with a first split of 5.46. Has never placed from this draw. Three wins from four starts over this trip. Has won races at five tracks.

9. Moreira: First emergency. No winning time, ran second in heat in 29.89. Has won from all draws except Box 5 and 6. 2016 Golden Easter Egg winner at Wentworth Park.

10. Eisenhower: Second emergency. Best 30.56, went quicker than this when runner up in heat, 30.17 with a first split of 5.55. 5 of six career wins have come from Boxes 1-4.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Ima Wagtail (1) >$4.20 for 3 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Shared Equity (6) >$4.80 for 2 units