Betfair Starting Price Index

Posted: July 20, 2016

Diversify your punting by taking a position on the results of a full card of racing with the Betfair Starting Price Index.

What is a ‘Betfair Starting Price Index’?

The BSP Index is the sum of BSP (Betfair Starting Price) odds of all winners over a card of racing. For example, the BSP Index at a 9 Race Card at Flemington would be the combined number of all 9 BSP winner prices after the end of the last race.

BSP Index Market

The BSP Index Market is a straight Over/Under market which is created before the first race and trades until the winner of the last race crosses the line. The line won’t change but prices will fluctuate as the results of each race unfold – similar to an AFL or NRL Total Match Score Over/Under Market.

When? BSP Index Over/Under Total will be set by 9.30am Race Day

Where? Available only on betfair.com, m.betfair.com.au, the mobile app & via telbet. This is an in-play market and can be traded online in-play.

View the latest BSP Index Totals.

The BSP Index can be followed every week on Twitter @Betfair_Aus.

‘’The BSP Index is a great addition to the current betting marketplace. The ability to bet and then trade during the day provides opportunities for profit that are currently not available to punters, as well as sustaining a high level of interest in every race on the program. I will definitely be adding the BSP Index to my regular betting strategies.’’

Daniel O’Sullivan, www.trb.com.au

How to bet on the BSP Index?

You can side with the favourites or roughies in one single bet on the BSP Index. If you have a position on the average price of the winners for a day’s racing, the BSP Index provides an easy way to invest on that opinion. It also offers savvy Betfair punters more options to trade throughout a card and also offers those with rated prices the ability to outperform the market expectation of the BSP Index.

Learn more on BSP Index Strategies

BSP Index Example

Utilising results from Flemington on May 21 2016, lets take a look at how the BSP Index could have traded throughout the day.

Before Race 1

118 horses are scheduled to take to the track at Flemington. With no odds-on runners forecasted, Betfair sets BSP Index at 110.5pts – the Over/Under market is set. Backers and Layers enter the market and in early trading you can back Overs at $1.96 and the Unders at $2.02.

BSP Index Graphic

Race 1: The Pat Hyland Plate

Well backed favourite Sebring Dream salutes, at a very skinny BSP of $2.84. Unders backers cheered home Michael Walker’s mount and can already ‘cash out’ after just one race. Overs has drifted to $2.50 on the Exchange and there are plenty of layers at that price. Unders is now $1.65.

Race 2: National Hall of Fame BM78

3kg claiming apprentice Beau Martins drives home market drifter Divine Chills to register a shock win at a $36 BSP. John Sadler’s three-year-old filly is now two wins and a second from her three starts.

Those that layed the Overs after the first race will be far less confident though, as the $36 winner has crushed in price. Overs is now $1.32, with Unders at $4.17.

The BSP Index market continues to fluctuate throughout races three to seven.

558x346-BSPindex21052016

Race 8: Hilton Nicholas Straight Six

On the straight course over 1200m, Brian Higgins kept the well backed Whistle Baby at bay to get Nautical home at a BSP of $104! Overs backers are in the money with a full race to go as the line of 110.5 was simply blown away.

Flemington Index Summary

Apart from the favourite in race one, it was a great day for the roughies backers, with Overs no bigger than $1.44 (after race 3).

Bookies and Overs punters will be leaving Flemington happy today.

Favs (Punters) or Roughies (Bookies)

Based on basic bookmaking and betting principles. A day at the races either favours ‘punters’ or ‘bookies’ depending on the prices of winners for the day. It’s often said that if favourites win the majority of races then punters have had a big day and likewise if it’s a day of upset results for the bookies. With the BSP Index, you can side with the majority of favourites with 1 single bet.

It’s not an exact science as roughies can salute, but if you think the average price of winners for the day will be low, it’s an easy way to bet. Alternatively, if you want to lay or be against the shorties for the day, in one simple bet you can effectively lay all the short priced runners by backing the over.

 

Trading Advantages

Fancy the favourites in the first two race or believe a short priced runner will salute? Having a view on how a race day will pan out can provide a range of investment options on the BSP Index. If you expect the card to be favoured by short priced runners early & outside chances late, a simple Back-to-Lay strategy on the Unders can be a quality trade opportunity.

If short priced winners salute early, the Under price on the BSP Index will shorten, providing a chance for your initial Back bet. If outside chances go on to win throughout the card, the Under price will drift out, allowing you to Lay your way to a profitable trade.

 

Utilising Rated Prices

Professional punters use ratings, buy ratings, price up their own markets either manually or use an automated system they have created based on multiple variables. They use these ratings to assess a horses probability of winning a race. Once a rated price is matched up to a market price the punter can then make an assessment on that runner to identify value in backing that runner or value in laying that runner to lose.

To formulate the BSP Index the Data Science Team use the Betfair market price combined with an average of the corporate fixed prices and then remove the bookmaker overound (vigorish) across the entire race card. Once this has been complete they run 1000’s of simulations to create a median total of where the BSP Index for the days racing will end.

Professor Stephen Clarke from the Swinburne University has created the mathematic formulas behind the BSP Index. With his assistance the team at Betfair have created an excel calculator so you can create your own BSP Index based on your own rated prices using the same formulas as we do.

 

The Betfair BSP Calculator & Deep Calc of Over/Under Line

Race Speed Profiles  BSP Index Calculator

 

Although it may look complex you can calculate your own BSP Index forecast in a few simple steps

STEP 1 Enter Rated Prices
STEP 2 Click Calculate k-value
STEP 3 Click Calculate
STEP 4 Enter BSP Price
STEP 5 Enter Your Opening Price
STEP 6 Click Pre-Race
STEP 7 Enter Race 1-10 Results

**At any time you can update the odds, but need to do STEP 2 and STEP 3 after to have the updated values.

IMPORTANT: Your excel sheet needs to have ‘Solver’ Add in enabled. If your excel setting do not have this data setting enabled please follow this help link. Some users may incur issues if using Microsoft Excel versions dated 2010 & earlier.

Disclaimer: This calculator is provided as a tool which may be used by customers. No warranties are given in relation to the calculator, and Betfair will not be liable for any loss suffered stemming from its use.

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