Betfair Insights – Big Bash Season 2015/16

Posted: December 15, 2016 at 1:43 pm
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As the toss of the first coin nears for Season Six of the Big Bash League (commencing December 20), we cast a retrospective eye over the 2015/16 season looking at Betfair Exchange data.

Betfair Statistics 2015/16

The 2015/16 season saw the Sydney Thunder claim their first Big Bash title after finishing fourth on the ladder after the home and away qualifying matches. The Thunder were far from pre-tournament favourites with a weighted average price of $10.99 making them seventh in line to lift the trophy according to punters.

It was a season packed full of on field action with a record crowd of 80,883 at the MCG for the Melbourne Derby between the Stars and Renegades.

We have analysed the data to find some interesting insights that will help Betfair Punters know what to look for during the 2016/17 season.

2015/16 Key Stats

  • 11,013 runs scored (875 more than previous season)
  • 412 wickets taken (12 fewer than previous season)
  • Average first innings score: 163 runs
  • Most Runs: Chris Lynn (BRIS) – 378 runs
  • Most Wickets: Clint McKay (SYD THUNDER) – 18 Wickets
  • Most Sixes: Chris Lynn (BRIS) – 27

BBL Team Insights

  • Position: Fourth (Eliminated Semi Final)
  • Played 9 (Won 7 & Lost 1)
  • Won 100% of the games they bowled first in (4/4)
  • Won 60% of the games they batted first in (3/5)
  • Top run scorer: Tim Ludeman (256 runs)
  • Top wicket taker: Adil Rashid (16 wickets)
  • Position: Sixth
  • Played 8 (Won 3 & Lost 5)
  • Won 33.33% of games they bowled first in (1/3)
  • Won 40% of games they batted first in (2/5)
  • Top run scorer: Chris Lynn (378)
  • Top wicket taker: Samuel Badree (9 wickets)
  • Position: Seventh
  • Played 8 (Won 3 & Lost 5)
  • Never won bowling first (0/2)
  • Won 50% of the games they batted first in (3/6)
  • Top run scorer: George Bailey (240)
  • Top wicket taker: Cameron Boyce (11 wickets)
  • Position: Eighth
  • Played 8 (Won 3 & Lost 5)
  • Won 75% of games they bowled first in (3/4)
  • Never won when batting first
  • Top run scorer: Chris Gayle (260 runs)
  • Top wicket taker: Nathan Rimmington (7 wickets)
  • Position: Runners Up
  • Played 10 (Won 6 & Lost 4)
  • Won 62.50% of games they bowled first in (5/8)
  • Won 50% of games they batted first in (1/2)
  • Top run scorer: Kevin Pietersen (323)
  • Top wicket taker: Adam Zampa (12)
  • Position: Third (Eliminated Semi Final)
  • Played 9 (Won 5 & Lost 4)
  • Won 60% of games they bowled first in (3/5)
  • Won 50% of games they batted first in (2/4)
  • Top run scorer: Michael Klinger (285)
  • Top wicket taker: Andrew Tye (13 wickets)
  • Position: Eighth
  • Played 8 (Won 2 & Lost 6)
  • Won 25% of games they bowled first in (1/4)
  • Won 25% of games they batted first in (1/4)
  • Top run scorer: Michael Lumb (253)
  • Top wicket taker: Sean Abbott (11 wickets)
  • Position: Winners
  • Played 10 (Won 6 & Lost 4)
  • Won 60% of games they bowled first in (3/5)
  • Won 60% of games they batted first in (3/5)
  • Top run scorer: Usman Khawaja (345)
  • Top wicket taker: Clint McKay (18 wickets)

The graph below displays how each team performed against their pre-match WAP (weighted average price), providing us with some good insights into the value of each team.

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Lowest Pre-Play WAP (regular season):

  • Melbourne Stars ($1.75)
  • Position: Runners Up – Won 5 Lost 3

The top two value teams of the regular season were:

  • Adelaide Strikers – Position: Fourth. Won 7 & Lost 1
  • WAP (pre-match) – $1.89

 

  • Perth Scorchers – Position: Third. Won 5 Lost 3
  • WAP (pre-match) – $1.78

Most traded pre-match teams (regular season):

  • Perth Scorchers and Sydney Thunder

Most traded in-play teams (regular season)

  • Adelaide Strikers & Sydney Thunder

Most traded teams (regular season):

  • Sydney Thunder & Adelaide Strikers

Pre-Match Markets

Pre-match Betfair markets offer you the chance to back or lay a team at high prices, so ensuring that you get the right price is critical to the profit that you can make when betting on the Big Bash season.

The graph below shows the difference in the amount you would win if you placed a $10 Back wager on every team across all fixtures at the minimum and maximum pre-match market prices.

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Backing a team early at the best price is also important, as it provides you with the opportunity to lay a side as the price shortens. Adelaide Strikers traded at a high of $2.90 pre-match against the Melbourne Stars and a low of $2.10. By Backing them at $2.90 and laying at $2.10 you could lock in a profit no matter who wins the match before it starts.

Where Was The Value?

It seems it has become a trend of the Big Bash that outsiders according the Betfair SP win more games than they should on paper…

  • 67% of teams won when priced between $2.50 and $2.74
  • 50% of teams won when priced above $2.75
  • 50% of teams won when priced between $1.50 and $1.74

Pre-Play vs In-Play Money

Pre-Play Money

  • The Perth Scorchers were the most traded team in the pre-play markets.
  • Melbourne Stars were a close second.
  • Brisbane Heat continue to struggle for support pre-match with the least amount traded pre-game from all teams.

In-Play Money

  • 97% of the total volume traded on the BBL last season was completed in-play.
  • The nature of the Big Bash tournament allows for the momentum of games to swing in favour of one side very quickly, providing some outstanding trading opportunities for Betfair customers.

The match between Melbourne Stars and Sydney Thunder on 20 December 2015 is a great example of the in-play market fluctuations that can occur in the BBL.

Match Summary

  • Sydney Thunder Defeat Melbourne Stars by 1 run
  • Sydney Thunder pre-match WAP $2.51 – backed at a high of $3.05
  • Melbourne Stars pre-match WAP $1.58 – backed at a high of $1.78
  • Sydney batted first and record 6/178. Their price fluctuates during the innings due to the following…
    • 2 wickets fall in the 7th and 8th over leaving the Thunder 3/59
    • 53 runs off the last 5 overs for the Thunder
  • The Melbourne Stars innings gets off to a good start (0.53 from 5 overs)
  • 6th Over – Andre Russell claims two wickets
  • 17th Over – Pietersen hits 23 off the over leaving the Stars with 27 runs required off 18 balls. Sydney price drifts out to a high of $8.76
  • 18th Over – Pietersen is caught at fine leg
  • 20th Over – 10 Runs required off 6 balls and the Thunder win by one run with Kallis bowling two dot balls in the over. Sydney Thunder price shortened to $1.50 only ten minutes after being over $8 to win.
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