The Betfair Insider’s Group 1 Qualifiers Betting Strategy: Wentworth Park Saturday 15th October – Vic Peters Heats

Posted: October 15, 2016

  

Group 1 Qualifiers Betting Strategy

Wentworth Park, Sydney: Saturday 15th October

 

Race 1 – Vic Peters Heat 1

#4 Magic Ambush  

Even though he has been raced sparingly of late, he looks well placed here. From the in-form Jason Thompson kennel, this versatile chaser is capable of ‘pinging the lids’ or settling near the lead and finishing strongly. He had no luck in a recent run at Bulli and I am giving him another chance here.

#7 Centrico 

I thought he was quite lucky in his most recent win at Bulli. He had a squeeze draw and crashed hard to the fence without finding any trouble. I don’t think he can get away with that here. Additionally, this is quite a step up in class and he has not raced here before. The dreaded 7 Box at Wentworth Park doesn’t help him either.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Magic Ambush for 2 units at > $3.00

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Centrico for 2 units at < $7.00

 

 

Race 2 – Vic Peters Heat 2

#5 Clock’s Ticking 

This chaser epitomizes the word classy. Even though he has only won one of his past five starts, he has been mixing it with some classy types and tougher company. Going back to an age restricted event here, I expect him to find a forward position and power away from these rivals.

 Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Clock’s Ticking for 3 units at > $2.80

 

Race 3 – Vic Peters Heat 3

#8 Got a Motor 

He looks well drawn here and previous runs have shown he looks a real ‘pinky’. I am hoping he stays wide early and burns across to be vying for the lead on the first turn. He only finished 1.5 lengths away from Shy Gambler in the final of the Group 3 Nowra Puppy Classic and that form reads well for this. The Lord kennel has also been in great form of late.

#5 Nangar Bear

He ran the hands off the clock in a recent win at Dubbo but he is having his first city start here. Added to my query of him here is the squeeze draw and the fact he has been hit and miss at box rise. I am happy to take him on here.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Got a Motor for 3 units at > $3.30

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Nangar Bear for 2 units at < $6.00

 

Race 4- Vic Peters Heat 4

#3 Good Odds Bricky 

In what looks a very tricky race on paper, happy to have a small wager on this chaser who was most unlucky when he took a tumble last start. Prior to this he ran a gutsy second in very solid time and if he was to begin cleanly, I expect him to give a great sight here.

#2 Springcreek Bill 

He has won his past two over this trip however I thought he benefited from a saloon run through on the first turn when he won from this box last month. He had the wide draw here last start and although he weaved his way through the field nicely, I think there are plenty of risks associated with him here. If he was to miss the start I expect him to get caught up in too much traffic along the rail.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Good Odds Bricky for 1 unit at > $5.50

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Springcreek Bill for 1 unit at < $3.90

 

Race 5 – Vic Peters Heat 5

#2 Reefton Treasure

He has been mixing it with some quality chasers when he was racing in Victoria. He shows good track sense in his races and he has an outstanding record from inside draws including 2 wins from 3 starts from this draw and 8 of his 11 career wins coming from Boxes 1-4. 

#8 Winsome Spring

This chaser is too risky early to back with confidence for a win. However, I believe he is a great place bet as he likes to go around dogs rather than underneath them so therefore he is well drawn in the pink. I expect him to be powering home into the placings.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Reefton Treasure for 1 unit at > $3.30

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) Winsome Spring for 2 units at < $1.60

 

Race 6 – Vic Peters Heat 6

 #5 Trip to Eden 

He ran a sizzling 29.11 over 515 metres at Bulli last start and looked airborne. He can show great early pace and is every chance of being able to find a forward position here. If he can replicate his 29.61 Sandown Park win from last month, he should be winning this.

#4 Black Hole Sun 

Although he has a solid 30.20 PB over this trip, this was back in June and the following week was found to be injured. He has only had three starts since and these have been only over 400 metres at Bulli. He may be able to run into the placings tonight but I feel he will be better for the outing and I am happy to take him on.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Trip to Eden for 3 units at > $3.60

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Black Hole Sun 1 unit at < $7.00

 

Race 7 – Vic Peters Heat 7

#3 Ando’s Mac

He would have to be one of the favourites to win this three-week series. He has been mixing it with some top quality chasers for several months now and should appreciate this class. He is trained by one of the best trainers in New South Wales and looks well drawn to find the early lead and be off and gone. There are plenty of positives here backing this chaser and I am very confident he can win.

#8 Toxic Runner 

I am happy to have a saver on this chaser as he looks suited out wide. Just in case there is a scrimmage on the first turn he should be able to sail around the field and find a position where he can threaten the leaders. He should be good value for the place here.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Ando’s Mac for 4 units at > $2.40

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) Toxic Runner for 1 unit at > $2.50

 

Race 8 – Vic Peters Heat 8

#4 Benteke 

He had no luck in the recent Group 1 Adelaide Cup final from the wide draw where he wasn’t suited. He showed plenty of guts at the first turn and when he was moving into a threatening position he received a big bump. Although the squeeze draw here is a little tricky, he has a great record here winning four races and has a scintillating 29.67 PB.

#7 Ritza Lenny 

I have been very disappointed with his recent runs. He had a favorable draw in the Group 1 Megastar at Dapto but he missed the start and was up against it from there. He also has a poor record from wide draws with no wins from four starts from this draw. He has found the toughest heat of the night here and my gut feel is he won’t win.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Benteke for 2 units  at > $3.40

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Ritza Lenny for 2 units at < $3.30

 

Race 9 – Vic Peters Heat 9

#1 Wicked Pedro 

Hoping for some value here. This chaser has some good experience over this trip including a solid 30.23 win late last month. He looks well drawn along the paint and he should hold his line going into the first turn. I am hoping he gets out to silly odds here.

#7 Mister Twister 

It is obviously risky laying an undefeated chaser who has shown plenty of promise at The Gardens running slick time. My query here is the wide draw at his first city start and if he can cross the field cleanly. If he can’t cross the field, he will be relying on no other chasers spearing off on the first turn causing him interference. I expect him to be the ‘hype’ dog of the night and think he will be way too short here.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Wicked Pedro for 2 units at > $3.90

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Mister Twister for 2 units at < $2.15

 

Race 10 – Vic Peters Heat 10

#4 Elantris

The Callaughan camp must have a high opinion of this chaser as they travelled to Victoria to run in a heat of the Shepparton Cup in what was a star studded field. Even though he didn’t win, he matched it with one of the quickest chasers in the country in Zambora Brockie down the straight and that is very noteworthy. I am happy to back him in here against these rivals.

#6 Mack Tux 

This chaser has only been out of the money twice in ten career starts, including a luckless run last start where he found a heap of trouble. Prior to this he had been racing consistently and has had four starts over this trip. This experience could prove valuable and the wide draw doesn’t concern me. I am happy to have a saver on him here.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Elantris for 2 units at > $3.40

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Mack Tux for 1 unit at > $5.00

 

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