Group 1 Qualifiers Back and Lay Prospects
Sale: Sunday 18th December
Race 4 – 2016 TRFM Sale Cup Heat 1
#8 Alera Bale
This chaser is really starting to put it together. She sizzled over the 545m at Ballarat and having her first start over this distance range here last week she handled the step up in trip with perfection. Showed great racing sense and picked off several handy types and was running away from them late. I am keen to stick with her.
#3 Bogie Bekim
Could end up being the value runner here. I believe that a run over this trip is imperative to your winning chances in this Cup series and he caught my eye here last week. Has shown stacks of ability in recent wins in South Australia and is bred to stay all day. Could be powering home here.
Race 5 – 2016 TRFM Sale Cup Heat 2
#8 Burn One Down
Let the Betfair Insider followers down in a heat of the Bold Trease at Sandown Park last month but has since bounced back very quickly and scored two massive wins in handicap staying races at The Meadows. Looks suited by the wide draw here as he shouldn’t get bottled up on the rails and have his momentum halted. He should make his move mid race and street away from these rivals.
#6 Caco Potion
I would have preferred this chaser to have had a start over this trip prior to this series, however he is a chaser who gives his all and is capable of getting forward early and running a cheeky race. Has been matching it with some smart types in recent runs in the city and I am happy to back him here at juicy place odds.
Race 6 – 2016 TRFM Sale Cup Heat 3
This chaser keeps making his own luck as he is an impeccable beginner who seems to easily be finding the lead over the staying trips and just keeps ticking away and holds on to win. I actually see the drop back in distance here from his previous two runs over 725m as a positive. To my eye this would be his optimum distance range, just keep in mind you would want him at least five in front down the back straight in order to win.
#3 Trip To Eden
Has been costly in his last two starts at Sandown Park and The Meadows. Seems to be a chaser who spits the dummy if he doesn’t get his way early. Keeping in mind he is likely to be beaten for early pace by Silverali then it is possible he will get shuffled back going into the first turn so I am happy to lay him here.
Race 7 – 2016 TRFM Sale Cup Heat 4
Looks outstanding value here and has been racing in great form with wins over this distance range at Bendigo and Warrnambool. Seems to have improved his box manners and is jumping more speedily as evidenced by his all the way win at Angle Park recently. He is in career best form and I am not too concerned by the wide draw.
#4 Fanta Bale
Has recently contested the three week Laurels Series for bitches at Sandown Park. This was a tough series for her as she was knocked around in the semis and the final. There was only a five day turnaround between the Laurels semi and final and now she only has three days before stepping up to the 650 metres for the first time. As professional as they come but there are too many negatives here this time around for mine.
Race 8 – 2016 TRFM Sale Cup Heat 5
#5 Aeroplane Tommy
Not known as a good beginner and I am actually hoping he again misses the kick here and drops to the rail. Some of the chasers drawn underneath him will be looking to spear off on the first turn. That should give this chaser the chance to rail like a go kart at the first turn and put himself right in the race. Looks attractive odds against these rivals.
#1 Dundee Osprey
Clearly the class chaser of the field however I believe he maps poorly here. Should be out paced at box rise by Mepunga Rosie, Avatar Jet and Allen Oregon and I am just not certain he will cope with being bottled up on the first turn. This chaser needs to somehow get to the outside to show his explosive acceleration and I am not sure he can achieve that here and if it does, it may be too late.
Race 9 – 2016 TRFM Sale Cup Heat 6
#1 Zipping Silva
Has looked airborne in his past two runs over this trip. Gained crucial experience over this trip the past two weeks against some smart types and has also shown great track sense. Although I would prefer him from an outside draw, this is the next best thing and if can hold his line at the first turn then he will prove tough to beat in the late stages of this event.
#8 Hit The Highway
Has won his past five starts including an all the way win at Bendigo last start over 660m which erased any doubt about him as a stayer. Although he is undefeated from this draw I would prefer him from an inside alley and he will have to work very hard to find the front from this wide draw. I am hoping he will get swamped late.